Karl Rove gets back in the race

WASHINGTON — White House political strategist Karl Rove emerges from the CIA leak case with his reputation scuffed, his power slightly diminished and Republicans again counting on him to help rescue their House and Senate majorities.

Described by friends as relieved and recharged after news last week that he will not be indicted in the leak investigation, Rove faces another verdict in the fall over his abilities as a political strategist and his ambition to build an enduring Republican majority.

Rove's reputation as a campaign operative is unparalleled — he is hailed by President Bush as the architect of his 2004 re-election — but his judgment in melding politics and policy into an effective governing strategy has been called into question in the president's second term.

Rove was the conceptual brains and chief cheerleader behind what has turned into the biggest domestic-policy failure of Bush's presidency: the effort to introduce personal savings accounts into the Social Security program.

Republicans interviewed for this article also said they thought failure of others in the White House to check Rove's expanded powers contributed to missteps that they said were far less common during Bush's first term.

Rove now has the freedom to concentrate on preserving GOP majorities in Congress and an opportunity to purge mistakes of the past two years.

Based on recent Rove speeches and interviews with senior GOP officials, his plan for the midterm elections echoes the strategy he plotted in 2002 and 2004, adapted to a more difficult environment.

He hopes to make the election a choice between the philosophies of the two parties, especially on national security, rather than a referendum on Bush's performance.

Rove also aims to stoke the Republican base with such issues as tax cuts, same-sex marriage and judicial appointments. He declined to comment for this article.

For the first time since Bush became a national candidate, Rove faces a fractured Republican coalition, at odds over immigration and spending. Rove has been concentrating his energies on reuniting the party, GOP officials said.

"The results of the 2006 election will be the final verdict of his standing with the president and his party," said Tad Devine, a senior strategist in the campaigns of Democratic presidential nominees Al Gore and John Kerry.

Rove was the architect of a series of victories for Bush — the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004, as well as the 2002 midterms — that left Democrats demoralized and divided. While it might be Washington myth that Rove is responsible for all of Bush's victories — after all, the president executed the plans and earned the vote — the balding Texan with the mischievous grin receives much of the credit in the eyes of Republicans and Democrats alike.

Missteps

He also receives blame when numbers go down. "Karl is rightly called a genius, and, like any genius, his can be big mistakes," said Rep. Tom Feeney, R-Fla. He said Rove is the smartest political mind in the party today but that his efforts to "buy votes" from independents by expanding the education system and creating a Medicare prescription-drug benefit in the first term are hurting Republicans today. "Those issues turned off the base," Feeney said.

The Social Security debate, however, probably was his biggest blunder, Republicans inside and outside the White House said.

Internally, Rove championed a plan to restructure Social Security by allowing younger Americans to put some of their Social Security taxes into private accounts in exchange for a reduction in guaranteed benefits.

He gambled that Bush could bend Congress and a skeptical public to his will. He was wrong.

Rove's elevation to deputy chief of staff after the 2004 election created an imbalance inside the White House that Republicans outside the administration think contributed to the problems in 2005. His title was understated, but, in essence, he was controlling strategic planning, day-to-day policy management, politics and often communications, aides said.

Rove's intellect, powerful personality and close relationship to the president gave him advantages that others in the administration's internal debates could not match.

With his new status, his powers were even more intimidating, making it all the more difficult for others to challenge his views.

Aides present at the time said Rove would hold strategy meetings on Social Security after it was clear the plan was dead on Capitol Hill. No one in the room felt comfortable to challenge him, even though, as one participant recalled, they would whisper afterward about the futility of their efforts.

Plamegate

The CIA leak investigation was more of a distraction than either Bush or Rove publicly acknowledged, current and former White House officials said. Rove testified before a federal grand jury five times, met with his high-priced lawyer, plotted a defense and faced a constant threat of being indicted for making false statements. Famous for his ability to juggle issues while staying in the loop through his BlackBerry, Rove nonetheless was pulled away at key moments.

"You cannot have that kind of thing swirling around you without an enormous amount of anxiety," said Republican lobbyist Vin Weber, an informal White House adviser and Rove ally. "I can tell you this: It demoralized the whole White House, not because they thought the guy in their midst was crooked but ... because he is very well-liked in the White House."

Some Republicans said Rove's preoccupation was partly responsible for the debacle of White House counsel Harriet Miers' failed nomination to the Supreme Court last fall. Conservatives loathed the choice and she, under pressure, eventually withdrew her nomination, a low point for Bush's presidency.

"That really damaged Bush," said William Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard, a conservative magazine, who added that conservatives routinely tell the president that the Miers pick was the moment they started to question him. "It was not an accident that it happened at the height of the [CIA leak probe], when Rove was at his weakest."

Rove, a historian with an encyclopedic knowledge of elections, was sensitive to the perception that his influence was waning, current and former White House officials said.

After he was stripped of control over day-to-day policy management when Joshua Bolten became the new chief of staff, Rove spread the word that the change did not mean he was losing the power to shape policy.

Even so, the combination of staff changes, the failure of the Social Security plan and the distraction of the leak case allowed other aides such as Bolten and adviser Dan Bartlett to rise in status and influence with Bush, the officials said. Rove remains a powerful force but one whose judgments are checked by Bolten, who is considered a more forceful chief of staff than his predecessor, Andrew Card; by Bartlett; and by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

"Karl gets more credit and more blame than any person on Earth, whether all things positive from a Republican perspective or negative from a liberal Democratic perspective," said John Weaver, chief strategist for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. "That's not fair. He deserves much of the credit, but so does the president and much of the team. Likewise when things go poorly."

Said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.: "When it comes time for the Republican Party to focus on maintaining its majorities, his standing will be as large as ever because he is our go-to guy on politicking."

But "when it comes to governing, it is a mixed bag" for Rove. "Nobody is going to listen to us about how bad the Democrats are until they have confidence in us" to govern effectively.

Game plan

Rove's assignment to shape strategy for the midterm elections is no easy task considering the public's low opinion of Bush and Congress.

Rove has gained a reputation for running polarizing campaigns aimed at maximizing the turnout of the GOP's conservative base. But he also had success in 2004 with policy proposals designed to chip away at Democratic or swing constituencies such as Hispanics, suburban women and Roman Catholics. Republican divisions on immigration show the limitations of that strategy, but it is not likely Rove will abandon it.

Beyond campaigns, Rove has put aides on notice that his focus is also Bush's presidential legacy. At a meeting of senior White House workers this month, one official recalled, budget director Rob Portman suggested in the course of discussing some issues that time was limited. "We've only got so much time left," Portman said.

"Wait," Rove interrupted. "We've got a lot of time left. Jack Kennedy's whole presidency was 2-½ years."