History seems to be catching up to GOP

WASHINGTON — For five years, President Bush has defied political history.

He won the White House while losing the popular vote. He expanded his party's majority in Congress in 2002, the first president to do so in his first term since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934. Bush added seats again in 2004, the first to do so while winning re-election since FDR in 1936.

Now, six months before Election Day, history appears to be catching up to the president and his party.

Republicans could lose seats in the House and the Senate for the first time in the Bush era — as has happened to every president in his sixth year in office since the Civil War, with the sole exception of Bill Clinton in 1998.

Republicans could lose control of the House and possibly the Senate. If Democrats capture either chamber, Bush will lose any chance to set the nation's agenda or to block investigations that could harass him through his last two years in office.

Republicans also appear in danger of losing some of the nation's most prominent governorships, including in such megastates as California, Florida and New York.

12 races to watch


SENATE

Ohio: Republican Sen. Mike DeWine is weakened by scandals in his state party. He faces Rep. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, in a state where Republicans are in trouble almost everywhere.

Pennsylvania: Republican Sen. Rick Santorum faces Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the state treasurer and son of the late governor. Polls show Santorum trailing. Casey is an abortion opponent who can compete for culturally conservative voters.

New Jersey: Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez was appointed to his seat and is defending it against Republican state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., son of the former governor.

Montana: Republican Sen. Conrad Burns is defending his seat after 18 years in office. His greatest liability seems to be ties to disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Possible Democratic challengers include Auditor John Morrison and state Senate President Jon Tester.

Tennessee: Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is leaving office to run for president. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. is likely to be the Democratic candidate, but he must contend with the ethics baggage of his family and questions about whether an African American can win statewide. Republican voters will choose among two former House members, Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary, and the former mayor of Chattanooga, Bob Corker.

Missouri: After four years in office, Republican Sen. Jim Talent is seeking his first full term. He defeated former Sen. Jean Carnahan, a Democrat, in 2002, after she filled in for her husband, Mel, who was killed in a 2000 plane crash. Talent now faces Claire McCaskill, the state auditor who has aggressively supported embryonic stem-cell research.

HOUSE

New Mexico, 1st District: The district in Albuquerque and its suburbs went narrowly for Democratic presidential candidates John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000, yet has re-elected Republican Rep. Heather Wilson three times. She faces her toughest challenge yet from Democrat Patricia Madrid, the state attorney general.

Ohio, 18th District: Rep. Bob Ney probably is the most endangered Republican in the country. He was implicated in the plea deal by disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and has stepped down as chairman of the House Administration Committee. Likely to be renominated Tuesday, he then faces a strong challenge from whomever wins the Democratic primary.

Pennsylvania, 6th District: The suburban Philadelphia district went for Kerry and Gore by narrow margins while sending Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach to the House. He's in a close rematch with Democrat Lois Murphy, who came close, 48-52 percent, in 2004.

GUBERNATORIAL

California: Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger seeks a full term after ousting Democrat Gray Davis in a 2003 recall. Democrats competing for their party's nomination include state Controller Steve Westly and state Treasurer Phil Angelides.

Florida: Republican Gov. Jeb Bush is leaving office because of term limits. Democrats seeking their party's nomination include U.S. Rep. Jim Davis and state Sen. Rod Smith. Republican candidates include state Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher and Attorney General Charlie Crist.

New York: Republican Gov. George Pataki isn't running. Democratic hopefuls include Attorney General Elliot Spitzer and Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi. Republicans include former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld.

Knight Ridder Newspapers

The reasons: an unpopular war in Iraq, a Congress seen as out of touch and a president who, at least for now, has lost control of the national agenda — remember his bid to overhaul Social Security, the top goal of his second term — and has lost the approval of a solid majority of Americans

Even good news about the growing economy is overshadowed by anger over gasoline prices. People are sour, and the party in power is in trouble.

"This is the worst shape I've seen the Republicans in since at least 1982," said independent analyst Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, an independent newsletter. "They're running uphill."

Democrats have to gain 15 seats, net, to take control of the House from the Republicans. Rothenberg last week increased his forecast for Republican losses in the House from a range of five to eight seats to a range of seven to 10 seats, "with a bias toward even greater Democratic gains."

"The House definitely is in play," he said. He and other analysts also expect GOP losses in the Senate. Many say six GOP seats are vulnerable; Democrats need them all to take control.

A critical question is whether more Republican seats will become vulnerable. Good news, from Iraq or the gas pumps, could shore them up. Bad news could push more House and Senate seats into competitive contests, opening the way to more Democratic victories.

"The political environment couldn't be better for Democrats," said Amy Walter, an analyst for the Cook Political Report, another independent newsletter. "If the environment looks as bad in September as it does today, that puts a whole new set of districts into play."

It's possible, of course, that Republicans will resist the tide of historic losses by the party in power, which since 1906 has lost an average of 32 House seats and five Senate seats in the sixth year of a presidency.

For one thing, many more House members today represent districts whose boundaries are drawn to protect incumbents by stacking them heavily with voters who always support one party or the other.

There aren't yet as many competitive House and Senate seats as there were in 1994, when the Democrats lost control of the Congress as Republicans gained 54 House seats. To replicate such electoral change now would take either stronger Democratic challengers to put more seats in play or a rising wave of public anger that could carry even weak Democratic challengers into competitive campaigns.

"There are still some top Republican targets who don't have first-tier challengers, such as [Reps.] Anne Northup in Kentucky. Rick Renzi in Arizona, Jon Porter in Nevada and Mike Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania," Walter said.

Also, Republicans raise more money. The campaign fund for House Republicans finished the quarter that ended March 31 with $24.4 million in the bank, while House Democrats had $23 million. (That $1.4 million edge is smaller, however, than the $4 million advantage House Republicans had at this point two years ago.)

Rep. Tom Reynolds, R-N.Y., chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said all races will be decided locally, not by any national wave. But analysts Rothenberg and Walter disagreed.

"The only question for Republicans now is whether they can make the Democrat in a race so unacceptable that even voters who are disgruntled with Bush say, 'No, I just can't pull the lever for the Democrat,' " Rothenberg said. "They have to rip the bark off a Democratic challenger."