Bush swap may not satisfy GOP

PHILADELPHIA —

By one key measure, it is clear George W. Bush is no Ronald Reagan.

Plagued by an unpopular war and big domestic headaches, and peppered with demands from Republican allies that he pierce his White House bubble and bring in new blood, President Bush responded Tuesday by making one move. He replaced chief of staff Andrew Card, a veteran loyalist insider, with budget director Josh Bolten, a veteran loyalist insider.

Flash back to 1987. Peppered with similar demands after the Iran-contra scandal, President Reagan responded by cleaning house. He installed as chief of staff Howard Baker, a former senator popular on Capitol Hill. He brought in a team of new advisers, including Maj. Gen. Colin Powell. He fired or eased out the big scandal players, notably Oliver North and John Poindexter. And he shared national-security documents with Congress, waiving all claims of executive privilege.

Reagan's shake-up is prominent in the history books; the more minimal Bush response won't resonate nearly as much. After John Hinderaker, a lawyer and conservative blogger, heard the news, he headed his online remarks with one word: "Yawn." And he wrote: "I doubt that the change will make any difference, except maybe cosmetically."

It's questionable whether restive congressional Republicans will be satisfied by this move to where they will be eager to identify themselves as Bush loyalists as they run this year for re-election. They have long thought that this White House is too secretive; yet here is Bolten, as described in a Business Week profile: "[His] penchant for secrecy befits the son of a career CIA officer."

As commentator Craig Crawford noted Tuesday of Bolten, "He is inside the bubble of this White House and lacks the background and friendships on Capitol Hill that GOP leaders were hoping for in a new chief of staff."

The Rove factor

Conservatives on the Hill have long complained the Bush team spends too much money, and they remember Bolten's defense during one crucial episode in the battle over the Medicare drug-prescription plan. The original administration price tag for the plan was $400 billion over 10 years; after passage, it turned out to be roughly $535 billion. Yet Bolten testified last year that the old estimates were "completely consistent" with the new.

There is no outsider element in this personnel shuffle. Card, a longtime Bush family favorite, will be replaced by a guy who has served the president since his first stint as a candidate.

There are other parallels. Card is strongly identified with the Bush agenda; he was a founding member of the White House Iraq Group and helped advance the arguments for war.

In September 2002, when asked to explain why Bush was suddenly planning autumn speeches about the threat posed by Saddam Hussein, he replied: "From a marketing point of view, you don't introduce new products in August."

Bolten is similarly tied to the Bush agenda; he was a forceful advocate for Social Security privatization, writing guest columns even as the public — and Republicans on the Hill — were being scared off by the price tag.

As conservative commentator Kate O'Beirne noted Tuesday: "There is no new blood in this 'shake-up.' It's more like Andy Card put aside a vial of his own in the event the White House needed a transfusion."

Bush's move is less than sweeping for one big reason: In this White House, the chief of staff is not the most important bureaucratic player, job title notwithstanding. The real power is Karl Rove, the political strategist and policy deputy, and many observers say that unless or until he departs, there can be no substantive changes.

Bruce Buchanan, a veteran Bush watcher at the University of Texas, said Tuesday: "Rove's leaving would signal a major sea change, but there's no solid evidence that he expects to be shown the door, or brought on the carpet by the special prosecutor," a reference to Patrick Fitzgerald's investigation of Rove's possible role in the outing of a CIA employee married to an Iraq war critic. The employee, Valerie Plame, has since left the agency.

But, Rove aside, a serious reshuffling would involve some key Iraq war planners. Even Fred Barnes, a conservative commentator and Bush defender, wrote last week that Bush should set aside his "admirable but unrealistic" loyalty code and replace Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Barnes also called for Vice President Dick Cheney to quit.

We are more likely to see continuity; indeed, we have seen it. When Cheney's top aide, I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, quit in October after his indictment in the CIA outing scandal, he was replaced by his deputy, David Addington, an outspoken advocate of wartime presidential power known in some circles as "Cheney's Cheney."

A "reasonable voice"?

Some conservatives hope for the best from Bolten. Many long viewed Card with suspicion; they assigned him the blame for a number of debacles, notably the Harriet Miers nomination and the Dubai Ports World flap.

They think Bolten, despite the Medicare drug dispute, will be "a reasonable voice willing to control spending," someone who can cure Bush's "lame-duck syndrome," in the words of redstate.org.

But Card/Bolten was not the most important event at the White House on Tuesday. Note, instead, that Bush brought his entire Cabinet to the Rose Garden to stand with him while he assessed Iraq. It was a signal that there will be continuity, for good or ill, on the signature issue of his tenure.

As Texas analyst Buchanan put it: "Bush's future hinges on what happens in Iraq, not on who his top staffer is. It's the war that will really determine whether we will have a failed presidency spinning in the wind for the next three years."