Modest victory forecast for Kadima in Israeli election

JERUSALEM — On the eve of Israel's parliamentary elections, the large lead held by Kadima, the centrist party founded by Ariel Sharon before he was felled by a stroke, appeared to be eroding, final opinion surveys indicated.

Kadima was still expected to win the biggest share of seats in the 120-member Knesset in today's vote, but a smaller-than-hoped-for margin of victory would complicate efforts to assemble a stable governing coalition.

The vote pits Kadima, led by acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, against the left-leaning Labor Party and the conservative Likud, led, respectively, by Amir Peretz and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Some surveys suggested that Netanyahu and the once-dominant Likud might be outpolled by the Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by Avigdor Lieberman, a far-right grouping with strong appeal to immigrants from the former Soviet Union. If that happened, Netanyahu might quit politics, stepping down as party head and giving up his parliamentary seat, political observers were predicting.

Although compelling issues are at stake in the vote, including Olmert's plan to draw Israel's borders within four years — uprooting many West Bank settlements in the process — the campaign has been characterized by a distinct apathy. Few cars carry bumper stickers supporting one candidate or another, and the TV audience has been largely tuning out political ads, which in the past have gained a large viewership for being clever and funny.

The country traditionally has one of the highest voting rates among Western democracies, but turnout was forecast to be low by Israeli standards. The English-language Jerusalem Post called it "the most complacent campaign in Israel's history."

Polls published Monday in the Yediot Aharonot and Haaretz dailies forecast that Kadima would win 34 seats, slipping from 36 predicted last week and down from a high of 45 when Sharon was stricken nearly 2 ½ months ago.

Labor held steady at about 21 seats, and Likud languished in third place with a forecast 14 seats.

Monday marked a quiet final day of campaigning. Olmert stayed out of sight, sending Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni, who is to serve as Olmert's deputy in the new government, to shake hands at an outdoor market. Netanyahu prayed at the Western Wall in Jerusalem. Peretz was in Tel Aviv, handing out flowers to passers-by.

On the Palestinian side, Prime Minister-designate Ismail Haniyeh took a conciliatory stance in a speech before the Hamas-dominated Parliament in the Gaza Strip, saying his government would be prepared to talk with the so-called Quartet — the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia.

Israel has been dismissive of Haniyeh's assertions in recent days that Hamas seeks an end to conflict with Israel.

"We anticipated that Hamas would try to peddle ideas in which it doesn't believe as a way to sweet-talk the international community," the army chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, told Israel Radio. "Let's wait to see how the facts evolve."

Palestinian legislators are to vote this week on whether to approve the new Cabinet, made up largely of Hamas loyalists — a foregone conclusion since Hamas holds a parliamentary majority.