GOP's Christian right searches for a soul mate

WASHINGTON — Most Americans know one thing about Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, if they know anything at all: He lost more than 100 pounds in one year, a triumph touted in a weight-loss book he has hawked around the country.

But evangelical conservative activists know one or two other things that make the governor a standout among Republicans who may run for president in 2008: Huckabee is a Baptist minister and a defender of traditional family values.

"Let's face it," he recently told a crowd of Christian conservatives in Iowa, the state that holds the nation's earliest presidential caucuses. "In our lifetimes, we've seen our country go from 'Leave it to Beaver' to 'Beavis and Butt-head,' from Barney Fife to Barney Frank, from 'Father Knows Best' to television shows where father knows nothing."

Huckabee's early outreach to evangelicals — in Iowa and elsewhere — is a tribute to the clout of the Christian-conservative wing of the Republican Party.

That faction was crucial to President Bush's re-election in 2004 and is maneuvering to have a big say in who wins the party's nomination in 2008.

The Iowa Christian Alliance has invited potential Republican candidates to address groups of voters throughout the state. Anti-abortion activists have scoured the records of potential contenders.

A coalition of national conservative groups has summoned potential candidates to a September conference in Washington that it expects to be attended by 2,000 or more activists it calls "values voters."

"We are looking forward to a vibrant competition among politicians for these voters," said Gary Bauer, a conservative leader who ran for president in 2000. "No one owns them."

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has disavowed past statements supporting abortion rights. Sen. George Allen, R-Va., dropped his support for allowing gays to be covered by federal hate-crimes legislation. Rudolph Giuliani, the former New York mayor whose liberal record on social issues is anathema to many conservatives, recently spoke to a meeting of evangelical leaders in the South.

The influence of social and religious conservatives may be limited by the fact that they have not rallied around a single consensus candidate. The potential Republican candidates with the strongest showings in early polls — Giuliani and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. — are viewed with suspicion by many conservatives.

And yet those whom many regard as soul mates of the religious conservatives, such as Huckabee and Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., are among the least known in the field, suggesting they would have the highest hurdles to clear to win the nomination.

That is why some activists are urging social conservatives to close ranks behind a like-minded candidate, to maximize impact.

"If we get together and get behind a single candidate, we can be formidable," said Paul Weyrich, a conservative leader.

It is not clear when or whether that agreement will happen.

"Every named candidate is making a play for the right, and some seem to be doing a decent job of it," said Brian Hart, communications director for Brownback.

"A year ago you would've said 'No way McCain would be courting conservatives.' You never would have said a Massachusetts governor would be courting conservatives."

Influence growing

Christian conservatives — mostly white evangelical Protestants and, increasingly, Roman Catholics — have been a crucial part of the Republican base during the Bush years. They tend to be more concerned about social issues such as abortion, religion in public life and same-sex marriage than are Republican economic conservatives, whose top priorities are cutting taxes and regulation.

With no indisputable front-runner in the emerging Republican field for 2008, religious conservatives have an opportunity to wield more influence in the nominee's selection than in recent years.

In 2000, the establishment consensus behind Bush formed so early that other candidates with closer ties to the religious right, such as Bauer and Alan Keyes, were also-rans.

Still, evangelicals easily warmed to Bush, a born-again Christian. They provided crucial votes in the contested 2000 election and even more in his 2004 re-election.

Jennifer Duffy, an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, estimates one-third or more of Republican primary voters are Christian conservatives.

That means they may not be strong enough to hand-pick a nominee, but "they are strong enough to give candidates they dislike a lot of trouble," said John Green, a political scientist at the University of Akron, in Ohio, who specializes in religion and politics.

That's why, more than two years before the 2008 election, Republicans are traveling the country to shore up that support.

Huckabee is building on ties he has established as an ordained Southern Baptist minister and former president of the Arkansas Baptist Convention. He has endorsed South Dakota's new law that bans almost all abortions. Last week, he spoke in Florida at a gathering hosted by the Center for Reclaiming America for Christ.

Brownback appeals to social conservatives because he has made their issues — fighting abortion, embryonic-stem-cell research and indecency — central to his legislative career.

Some religious activists see Allen as a solid conservative on economic and social issues and more electable than Huckabee or Brownback. Allen came in first in a straw poll at a recent convention of conservative activists.

Other conservatives say they don't trust Allen, because, in 2004, he broke a campaign promise to oppose the extension of federal anti-hate-crimes law to cover gays. Allen switched his position in December 2005.

"The jury is still out about what social conservatives think of George Allen," said Joe Glover, president of Virginia's Family Policy Network, a Christian conservative group.

Reasons for suspicions

Another potential candidate who has labored to appeal to the religious right is Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn.

He was among the first to call for a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage and has scheduled a Senate vote on the measure for June.

But Frist's star has fallen among conservatives, who recoiled last year, when he called for expanded federal backing for research using embryonic stem cells.

Romney is aggressively courting the religious right because, as a Mormon from liberal Massachusetts, he is viewed with suspicion by many Christian conservatives. He has taken flak for saying during his 2002 campaign for governor that he supported a woman's right to choose abortion. Now he says his view has "evolved" and he is a determined abortion opponent.

Giuliani is widely viewed as the candidate who would have the hardest time winning acceptance among social conservatives, should he choose to run, because of his record of supporting abortion rights, gun control and gay rights. "From a social-conservative standpoint, he would be way down at the bottom of the heap," said Gary Glenn, president of the American Family Association of Michigan. "At least Romney is trying to flip-flop. Giuliani doesn't even bother to flip-flop."

Giuliani did stop by a Florida convention of the Global Pastors Network, an evangelical group, to speak. "I can't tell you from my heart how much I appreciate what you are doing: saving people, telling them about Jesus Christ and bringing them to God," Giuliani told the crowd, Time magazine reported.

McCain also faces animosity on the right. He antagonized social conservatives in his unsuccessful 2000 presidential campaign by criticizing evangelical leaders' influence on the party. He also voted against a federal constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage.

But in a sign he is trying to smooth troubled waters, McCain recently met with one of the evangelical leaders he criticized, the Rev. Jerry Falwell.

He also has picked up support from prominent Republicans with close ties to social conservatives: Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., and former Sen. Dan Coats, R-Ind.

It is not clear whether that will translate into broader support. Glenn, for example, turned down a chance to meet with McCain during a Michigan visit last year because of McCain's position on same-sex marriage.

"That," Glenn said, "is a non-negotiable issue."