"Definitely a civil war," expert says of conflict

James Fearon, a Stanford University political scientist and an authority on modern conflicts, believes Iraq's civil war began almost as soon as Saddam Hussein was ousted, and that it is disguised and partly held back by the presence of foreign forces.

"I think there is definitely a civil war that has been going on since we finished the major combat operations," Fearon said. "When people talk about 'Will there be a civil war?' they are really talking about a different type of civil war."

The kind of civil war emerging in Iraq, characterized by guerrilla attacks, kidnappings, assassinations and "ethnic cleansing," is typical of modern civil wars, Fearon said.

"Since 1945, almost all civil wars, a big plurality, have been guerrilla wars where it is kind of insurgency versus counterinsurgency," he said. "Most civil wars look more like what we are seeing in Iraq now."

The presence of U.S. troops in the conflict would not be unusual, he said. "A great number [of civil wars] have involved foreign intervention. But I would still call it a civil war on grounds that the insurgents are attacking and killing far more Iraqis than U.S. troops."

Although Fearon sees the recent election as a possible positive step, he thinks the war among Iraqis could widen and intensify into open communal fighting on a larger scale, particularly if withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country is too rapid.

Los Angeles Times