Pullout would destabilize Iraq, top general tells troops on visit

RAMADI, Iraq — Gen. George Casey, the commander of multinational forces in Iraq, has no doubt what would happen if U.S. forces precipitously pulled out of Iraq.

"The security situation would degenerate badly," he said Thursday during a whistle-stop tour of Iraq. "You'd see [Abu Musab al-Zarqawi] consolidate his position on the ground, you'd see a terrorist safe haven develop in Anbar, you'd see him fomenting sectarian strife, and it would be hugely unstable."

So with opinion polls showing that Americans are turning against the war and pressure mounting in Congress for a swift withdrawal, Casey devoted Thanksgiving Day to a morale-boosting mission aimed at convincing soldiers in the field that the war is working.

Along the way, scudding low over the desert in a Black Hawk helicopter to avoid groundfire, he talked about his conviction that America's strategy for Iraq is on the right track. He also spoke about uncertainties as the U.S. military enters what could be the final stage of the Iraq war next year — the transition of authority to Iraqi security forces and the drawdown of U.S. troops under the supervision of Iraq's first permanent, democratically elected government.

The first stop was Forward Operating Base Kalsu in the so-called Triangle of Death south of Baghdad. Casey cited the notoriously dangerous area as an example of the progress that is being made toward stabilizing Iraq.

"When you got here we were fighting like hell here," he said in a festively decorated mess hall. "Now we're in a holding position, and you guys are one of the first to do it."

Brig. Gen. Augustus Collins, the base commander, showed Casey on a map the achievements his Mississippi National Guard 155th Brigade Combat Team has made since it arrived in February. Collins pointed out areas in Karbala, Husseiniya and Najaf that have been handed over to the Iraqi army and roads that have been secured, as well as areas on the Euphrates River that still are hot spots of insurgent activity.

"We're still getting murders around here," Collins said, adding that the killings appear to be politically motivated and have been on the rise as the crucial Dec. 15 election for a permanent government approaches.

Back in his helicopter, Casey said he was worried about the sectarian killings but that he thought a full-blown civil war unlikely.

"Not while we're here," he said. "Things could go right, and things could go wrong. A lot of things would have to go terribly in a wrong direction for civil war to break out. There is an Iraqi identity here, and this Sunni-Shiite split is not a natural state of affairs.

"What the Iraqis need is time. They need a few more years to work through their differences. Our presence here gives them that time. It's the gradual nature of this that will allow the process to stay on track and not degenerate."

That, he said, is why it is impossible to give a timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. troops or to say how many may be able to leave next year.

"We may see some reductions in the early part of the year. We need to see how the elections come out first," Casey said. "You will see a withdrawal of coalition forces outside the urban areas. You'll definitely see a less visible coalition presence, but I think that's more likely midyear than early in the year.

"Most Iraqis want us to leave, but the opinion polls also show they only want us to leave when the security situation is under control."

His Black Hawk descended into the troubled town of Ramadi in the insurgent-infested western province of Anbar. "This is the toughest nut to crack," he said, before springing out of his helicopter to eat turkey and stuffing with members of the Army's 2nd Brigade Combat Team.

"You have probably the biggest challenge in Iraq in terms of creating a secure environment," he told the soldiers, reminding them that fewer people in Ramadi voted in October's referendum on Iraq's new constitution than in any other city.

But he also promised them that help is on the way, in the form of the rapidly deploying new divisions of the Iraqi army. "There are over two Iraqi divisions now in Anbar, one is on its way, and that's going to continue to snowball here through 2006," he said. "By mid-2006 we could have 75 percent of Iraq's brigades in the lead, with our help."

Heading out of Ramadi, Casey said he nonetheless had been "pleasantly surprised" by the visit. "They've made more progress than I'd thought."

Defeating the insurgency is not on America's agenda, he said. Rather, the strategy is to "bring the insurgency down to levels that can be defeated by the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces."

There is evidence that is happening, he said, citing a sharp fall in suicide attacks in recent months.

Casey headed back to the capital, saying he had been encouraged by his day out.

"The primary thing is that the troops seem to be in pretty good mettle," he said. "What I've learned today is that the debate at home doesn't take a toll on the soldiers and their families."

Whether it is taking a toll on Casey isn't so clear. He acknowledged that his confidence is tempered by the recognition that many variables lie ahead, the biggest of which is the outcome of December's election. "I'm an optimist, but I'm a realist. There are a lot of hard things that have to go right. If the country has the patience to stick with it, this will work."