Democrats in ranks of Roberts supporters

WASHINGTON — Sen. Kent Conrad, a Democrat from North Dakota, sounds like a swooning Republican when he talks about Supreme Court nominee John Roberts.

"I am impressed with his demeanor, his intelligence, his sense of humor, his modesty," Conrad said. "Absent some bombshell, which I don't expect, I think he will be confirmed and quite handily."

Praise like that is bad news for the nearly 30 liberal interest groups calling on Democrats to block Roberts' rise to the Supreme Court. But it is good politics for Democrats such as Conrad who are running for re-election in states that President Bush won, according to several senators and strategists.

With the confirmation hearings expected to focus intensively on Roberts' views on abortion, affirmative action and other social issues, a number of Democrats say it would be unwise politically for Conrad and other red-state Democratic senators to side with liberal groups such as People for the American Way and NARAL Pro-Choice America.

This calculation is a chief reason that both sides expect Roberts to be confirmed by the Senate, with the only real debate among head counters from both parties being how many Democrats will join Republicans in voting yes.

"You are going to be arguing about issues that we all saw Democrats paid a heavy price for in the last election," said Leon Panetta, who served as President Clinton's chief of staff. "Democrats have a tremendous opportunity right now to hit Bush where he's weak, which is on oil prices and the war. Don't hit him where he's strong, which is these values issues."

Nearly six in 10 Americans — 57 percent — say the Senate should confirm Roberts to the Supreme Court while 22 percent say it should not, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. That's virtually identical to the results of a Post-ABC poll taken immediately after Bush nominated Roberts five weeks ago, suggesting the drumbeat of criticism from liberal groups has had little effect.

But Republicans acknowledge that they, too, must tread carefully around volatile issues. GOP operatives say Democrats succeed when they cast cultural debates broadly, making the argument about civil rights rather than affirmative action, or women's rights rather than abortion.

"If Roberts gets more votes because he is perceived as squishy and not particularly conservative ... that will be bad for Republicans in the election," because it could depress voter turnout among social conservatives, said Sean Rushton of the conservative Committee for Justice.

Some Democratic strategists predict Roberts could get as many as 80 votes, including a majority of Senate Democrats, aides say. The only Republican senators considered potential no votes are the handful of moderates who represent states in the Northeast, including Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island. Based on preliminary estimates provided by both sides, roughly 45 senators are considered certain to back Roberts, 15 are considered highly likely to vote for him and 20 or so are considered potential supporters.

The Senate Judiciary Committee was to begin hearings tomorrow, with a final vote expected by early October.

Ralph Neas, president of People for the American Way and a leading advocate for Roberts' defeat, says polling for his group and others shows that moderates and independents — widely considered the swing voters in elections — strongly oppose Roberts' judicial views on the rights of women and minorities and court deference to presidential power.