Continued unity of Shiite alliance faces challenges

NAJAF, Iraq — The United Iraqi Alliance, the powerful Shiite electoral slate expected to hold sway in today's nationwide elections, incorporates an impressive cross-section of political forces.

Assembled under the guidance of senior Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the alliance contains at least four legitimate contenders to become Iraq's prime minister.

But the sheer political diversity of the alliance membership has observers wondering just how long the show of unity can continue among the Shiites, the 60 percent majority population in Iraq long-oppressed by Saddam Hussein.

The slate, which reads like a who's who of Iraqi Shiite politics, has gathered groups that seem to have little common ground beyond a desire to benefit from al-Sistani's considerable influence.

Composed of members of the Dawa Party, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, Hezbollah, the Iraqi National Congress and followers of radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, the alliance incorporates not only rival political factions but ideologies that differ on the relationship between religion and state.

Some observers warn of an almost immediate postelection collapse as the nascent Iraqi political experiment moves into its next phase: the formation of coalitions and alliances within the 275-member National Assembly that will be choosing the government's leaders and writing a constitution.

A partial or full collapse of the United Iraqi Alliance could weaken the unified Shiite voice that al-Sistani has sought.

In the extreme case, it could also open the door for other slates that win seats in the National Assembly, such as a unified Kurdish slate and a secular-Shiite group headed by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, to cobble together a functional ruling coalition that included defecting alliance members.

In that case, the alliance would not get to select the nation's prime minister and might also have less sway over jobs and contracts filled by the new government.

A failure of the alliance to form a ruling coalition not only would be a blow to al-Sistani's personal prestige as the slate's unofficial patron but could prove a demoralizing turn for Iraq's Shiite majority, many of whom view this election as a long-overdue political ascension.

"It will be difficult for us to stay unified. That is expected. There is no real coordination," said Sheik Ali Merza, head of the Dawa Party's Najaf office and one of many who foresees fissures between traditional Shiite rivals such as Dawa and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq.

"What's the connection between [the Alliance parties]? Everyone is working for themselves," said Dr. Alham Kadhim of Najaf's Women's Center for Social Development. "Once they get past the elections, it's over."

Nijyar Shemdin, Washington, D.C., representative of the Kurdistan Regional Government, also predicted a fast revival of standing rivalries.

"I have a feeling that they will not stay united," he said. "I have a feeling that the solidarity will not last after the elections are over because the interests are so diverse."

The few alliance candidates loyal to al-Sadr could prove particularly problematic.

The young firebrand cleric has, at times, held an openly antagonistic relationship with al-Sistani and the rest of the Shiite religious hierarchy. Al-Sadr followers have in the past tried to lay siege to al-Sistani's home on a Najaf back street.

The pair have cooperated since August when al-Sistani ended a U.S. siege of Najaf by brokering a cease-fire with al-Sadr's Mahdi army. But the two remain rivals.

Disunity among the Shiite partners, "is one of the threats facing the list," said Ibrahim Bahr Uloum, a former minister of oil and Alliance candidate whose Iraq of the Future ticket is competing with the Supreme Council and Dawa in the Najaf provincial elections.

"Locally, there is some room for competition," he said, "but at the same time on a national level we have to cooperate."

Uloum predicted that "mutual respect" for the Shiite religious elite of whom Sistani is the most prominent member would help keep the factions in line.

Juan Cole, a University of Michigan history professor and expert on Shiite politics, predicted that enlightened self-interest would serve as "a powerful incentive for [the alliance's] various members to dampen down resentments and rivalries and cooperate."

"Controlling the Iraqi parliament is worth $17 billion a year in patronage," he said. "Pulling out of the ruling coalition and depriving yourself of any part of that would be a strange thing to do. Some immature groups might do it out of anger and annoyance, but they'd be very sorry."