SULAYMANIYAH, Iraq — In this Kurdish mountain capital, pictures of candidates appear in newspapers. Election-day celebrations are being planned. The biggest worry is whether bad weather on Sunday might clog the roads. (A fleet of snow blowers has been readied just in case.)

It's all in stark contrast to the rest of Iraq, where contestants are afraid to be identified, campaigning is underground and millions of voters are expected to steer clear of polls, either in protest or out of fear.

"There's a sense of gathering excitement among the Kurds over elections," said Barham Salih, Iraq's deputy prime minister and one of the highest-ranking Kurds in the current government. "Our aspirations are very high. It's an exciting moment in our history. This is the first time we Kurds have been allowed to take part in deciding the future of Iraq."

Political experts predict that Kurds will emerge as a major winner on election day because of strong voter turnout as a result of better security in their regions and a unified candidate slate that removed any threat of a split Kurdish vote. Kurds may not be the top vote-getters, but they are likely to win a sizable bloc that should give them a key role in selecting the new government.

"The Kurds are really the ones who could come out on top," said Hassan Bazaz, a political analyst at Baghdad University.

Their high prospects mark a stunning turnaround from the recent history of the Kurds, who were brutally oppressed under the previous regime.

Fearful that Kurds might break away from Iraq and suspicious of their ties with the United States and Iran, Saddam Hussein embarked on a devastating campaign of genocide and deportation. Since the early 1990s, Kurds have lived in a semi-autonomous state protected by a U.S.-imposed no-fly zone in the north.

Now Kurds are preparing to resume a major role in Baghdad. At political offices here, officials and strategists are making optimistic back-of-the-envelope calculations. The only dispute seems to be exactly how well Kurds will do.

Nearly everyone here in the Kurdish north of the country expects they will garner at least the second-highest number of seats in the new parliament, perhaps 65-70 of the total 275, or about 25 percent of the assembly. Kurds account for about 15 percent of Iraq's population.

"We expect to do quite well," said Imad Ahmed, the deputy prime minister of Sulaymaniyah province.

One of the leading Shiite slates is expected to capture the No. 1 spot, but the Shiite vote may ultimately split between the United Iraqi Alliance, which is backed by the leading Shiite religious parties, and the Iraqi List, a secular alternative led by Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi.

Low turnout in the rest of the country because of violence or fear may also result in a better performance for Kurds.

Either way, the Kurds should be in a strong position to help select the next prime minister, draft the constitution and settle such hotly disputed topics as who will control the disputed oil-rich northern city of Kirkuk.

Other major political parties in Iraq are already courting the Kurds, whose potential bloc of parliament seats will be a vital piece in forming a coalition to control the next government. Under the Transitional Administrative Law, major decisions by the new government will need approval from two-thirds of the assembly. The Kurds are attractive not only because they could be one of the largest blocs but also because their slate will likely be one of the most cohesive.

"The Kurds will be the kingmaker," said Adnan Pachachi, a leading Sunni Arab politician who heads his own slate of candidates.

HADI MIZBAN / AP An Iraqi street vendor stands in front of a Baghdad wall covered with election posters of cleric Ali al-Sistani. He is the most dominant figure in this weekend's election.

The leading Shiite slate is mindful that the Kurds will be a critical partner after the election.

"We need the Kurds," said Saad Jawad, head of the political bureau of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq. "We won't need help getting a simple majority of 50 percent. We think we can get that alone. But we will need them to get to the two-thirds majority, which is more important."

Preliminary talks have taken place, but Shiites and Kurds are waiting to see how each does and how much support each brings to the table.

What they want

Kurds are angling for one of the top two positions in the new government, either prime minister or president. In June, Kurds were bitterly disappointed that they failed to nab either post when the United States handed over sovereignty.

Adnan Pachachi warns of lopsided gains.

"It's important for us to have one of the top two spots, and we think we can take one," Ahmed said. Jalal Talabani, the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, or PUK, is being pushed for one of the jobs.

Rivals, however, warn that the Kurds could face a backlash if they push too hard for a leadership post or capture a disproportionate number of assembly seats. Tensions and suspicions between Iraq's Kurds and Arabs date back a hundred years.

"It would give a distorted picture of the reality of Iraq," Pachachi said. "Already Sunni Arabs feel they have been marginalized and not treated fairly. If they were left with nothing — neither the president or the prime minister — this would just make things even worse. People feel that Iraq, after all, is a predominantly Arab country."

Salih said the jostling over the leadership posts will serve as a test of whether Kurds are considered full-fledged Iraqis or "second-class citizens."

Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani put aside rivalries.

"If a Kurd — just for being a Kurd — cannot get a top position, that is tantamount to discrimination," Salih said. "Either we are full-fledged citizens or not."

Big turnout expected

Kurds note that they have a history of strong turnout and more experience than other Iraqis with democratic elections thanks to their semi-autonomous status over the past decade. Kurds are expecting at least 90 percent turnout. In addition to the backup snow-blowers, Kurdish parties are organizing buses to ferry voters to the polls and printing fliers and posters to direct residents to polling centers, said Hiwa Jaff, a PUK campaign official.

To achieve a unified slate and improve their chances, the PUK and the Kurdistan Democratic Party set aside longtime rivalries that have at times have led to bloodshed. Disputes over a 1992 election in Kurdistan ended in a regional civil war between the parties.

"We wanted to show voters that we can put aside our differences for the common good of Kurds in Iraq," said Ari Qaradaghi, a campaign official for the KDP.

Even at the local level, Kurdish parties joined together on a signal slate for the Kurdistan Regional Parliament and for local governorate councils. The move virtually eliminated competition among the Kurdish parties at the local level.

Kurdish leaders said they feared that even a local contest between the Kurdish parties would distract from the more important national elections and possibly lead to tensions that could disrupt the vote.

"We agreed to do this one time only," said Bahiz Hussein of the Kurdistan Community Party. "Kurdish political leaders want people to focus on the national election. For the sake of our future, we didn't want our people to be divided by competition."