Win in Fallujah could tip balance, Rumsfeld says

By Mark Mazzetti
Los Angeles Times

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Now, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other officials say they are hoping that crushing rebels in Fallujah will serve as a milestone for winning the backing of ordinary Iraqis and deflating the lethal insurgency.

As the U.S. military launched the most significant offensive in Iraq since the fall of Baghdad in April 2003, Rumsfeld argued yesterday that Iraqi public opinion was at a "tipping point" and that defeating the insurgents in Fallujah could help nudge a large majority of Iraqis into supporting the U.S.-backed interim government.

"Success in Fallujah will deal a blow to the terrorists in the country, and should move Iraq further away from a future of violence to one of freedom and opportunity for the Iraqi people," Rumsfeld said during a Pentagon briefing.

"Over time you'll find that the process of tipping will take place; that more and more of the Iraqis will be angry about the fact that their innocent people are being killed by the extremists," he said. "And that they'll want elections, and the more they see the extremists acting against that possibility of elections, I think they'll turn on those people."

Yet in the battle for hearts and minds, some experts pointed out at least two potential dangers in the new offensive. Large-scale civilian casualties — combined with grisly images of the fighting broadcast on Arabic satellite channels throughout the Middle East — might generate additional sympathy for the insurgents and could even encourage more Iraqis to take up arms against U.S. and Iraqi-trained troops.

"If this battle is viewed by a lot of Iraqis as an Alamo on the Euphrates, that could lead to more Fallujahs popping up around Iraq," said Andrew Krepinevich of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, an expert in counterinsurgency warfare.

Copyright © 2004 The Seattle Times Company

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