Flu season off to slow start, says CDC

By Reuters and The Associated Press

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WASHINGTON — The U.S. influenza season is starting slowly, but it is still too early to tell how severe the outbreak will be as the nation faces a vaccine shortage, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said yesterday.

Texas and New York have reported some localized outbreaks, and sporadic cases have turned up in some other states, Dr. Julie Gerberding told reporters at the American Public Health Association's annual conference. No states yet have widespread activity, and some states have not reported any flu cases.

"We're not getting off to a fast start," Gerberding said. However, she added: "Flu is so unpredictable; I'm not making any predictions."

Officials are closely watching flu activity as they try to direct remaining vaccine supplies to people most at risk of serious complications from the virus.

The U.S. government had hoped to have 100 million doses available for the current flu season but lost half that supply when maker Chiron Corp. was barred from shipping its vaccine after some doses were found to be contaminated.

The government now expects about 60 million flu shots will be distributed, after rival vaccine makers MedImmune and Aventis-Pasteur squeezed out some extra doses.

To track the flu's spread, the CDC is starting to monitor sales of over-the-counter drugs, such as anti-diarrhea medicines, that flu sufferers may want. A sudden spike in sales of such drugs could signal a flu outbreak.

"We think flu is an example where knowing what nonprescription drugs people are buying at the drugstores may be an earlier indicator than waiting until we see the hospitals fill up with the sickest patients," Gerberding said.

The government has stockpiled antiviral drugs that could be distributed to treat flu sufferers or prevent new infections.
 
Flu kills an estimated 36,000 Americans each year and sends about 200,000 to the hospital.

Meanwhile, as Americans scramble for scarce doses of flu vaccine, the CDC has another worry: bird flu.

"We are very concerned," Gerberding said.

Her agency is monitoring the spread of bird flu in Asia, where the virus continues to leap from animals to humans, to gauge whether the strain is evolving. Despite the culling of millions of birds, the H5N1 strain of bird flu resurfaced this year, killing 20 people in Vietnam and 12 in Thailand.

Under a contract with the National Institutes of Health, Chiron is producing vaccine that targets the H5N1 bird-flu strain. In addition, the government awarded the Emeryville, Calif.-based company $1.194 million to develop up to 40,000 doses of vaccine against the H9N2 bird-flu strain, which is less lethal but more widespread.

The government is scheduled to conduct clinical trials using both bird-flu vaccines as early as 2005.