Past polling may be a clue to the outcome

By Ronald Brownstein
Los Angeles Times

SAUL LOEB / KNIGHT RIDDER NEWSPAPERS Despite polling that indicated Sen. John Kerry won the debates with President Bush, some surveys have shown the Republican incumbent gaining support.

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WASHINGTON — While most of America is watching the spread in the polls between President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry, key strategists in both parties have their eyes on a different set of numbers: Bush's share of the vote, and his job approval, in the final surveys before Election Day.

Analysts watch the incumbent's number in the polls so closely because most voters undecided until the very end of a presidential campaign traditionally break for the challenger. As a result, challengers often run ahead of their final poll results, while incumbents rarely exceed their last poll numbers.

"We know from the history of presidential elections that when a president is polling below 50 percent going into the election, he usually loses," says Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist. "That is true of incumbent office-holders in general. The incumbent usually ends up getting the percentage that he is getting in the final polls — that's it."

By that standard, the race is teetering right on the knife's edge, although perhaps tilting slightly toward Bush after he regained the lead in five separate national polls released over the weekend.

More important, for the first time since the debates, Bush in three of the latest surveys cracked the 50 percent level in support against Kerry, the best news many GOP strategists have seen in weeks.

Surveys released Saturday by Newsweek and ABC/Washington Post put Bush's support at 50 percent among likely voters. On Sunday, Bush reached 52 percent among likely voters in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, opening an 8-percentage-point advantage over Kerry.

But a survey released over the weekend by Time placed Bush at 48 percent, as did the Newsweek result among all registered voters. The daily tracking poll by independent pollster John Zogby on Sunday placed Bush at 46 percent with likely voters.

Among all registered voters, Bush attracted 49 percent in the new Gallup Poll. And Bush's approval rating, another key indicator, is still running just below 50 percent in most polls.

Democrats are basing their hopes in the final weeks less on the difference at any given moment between Bush and Kerry than those surveys showing the president still below 50 percent in support.

"This is a very well-known incumbent where people have strong views," said Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg, a Kerry adviser. "His number [in the last polls] I believe is his number [on Election Day]."

Even some senior Republican strategists privately agree that the experience of the past half-century supports that argument. In the history of modern polling dating to 1952, no incumbent president has run even 1 percentage point better on Election Day than he did in the final Gallup Poll before the vote.

But other GOP strategists argue that doubts about Kerry will allow Bush to capture enough late-deciding voters to win even if he can't stay near the 50 percent level through Election Day.

"I'd rather be over 50 than under 50, but just because you're under 50 doesn't mean you are destined to lose this kind of race," says Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

Three factors add to the uncertainty as the two sides anxiously pore over the poll numbers. One is whether an unexpectedly large turnout — which appears possible given all the signs of unusually high interest in the race — could give either side an advantage not fully measured.

The other that no one knows is how high a share of the vote it will require to win this year, since no one knows how much of the vote Ralph Nader and other third-party candidates will siphon away.

The final is the inevitable imperfection of polling.

"At 45 percent or 46 percent and tied or down 2, that is a long road for Bush, where I've had lots of unhappy outcomes in my career," said one leading Republican. "At 48-48, I've seen incumbents win by 15,000 votes. There is a big difference [for Bush] between 48 and 46. The problem is polling isn't that good."

Copyright © 2004 The Seattle Times Company

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