Some key claims in debate and how they really stack up

By James Kuhnhenn and John Walcott
Knight Ridder Newspapers

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America's safety in a world of terrorist threats and the health and economic welfare of the nation dominated the questions undecided voters asked President Bush and Sen. John Kerry in last night's debate.

Some key points, and the facts behind them:

• Iraq sanctions. The president asserted that U.N. sanctions weren't working in Iraq. But a report this week based on a 15-month inspection led by the CIA weapons inspector found that Saddam hadn't restarted his nuclear-weapons program since the 1991 Gulf War and had no chemical- or biological-weapon stockpiles or any concrete programs to make them.

The inspector, Charles Duelfer, did find Saddam was manipulating the U.N. oil sales system in ways that enriched powerful individuals and groups he selected as a means to gain influence with countries that could help him lift sanctions. Duelfer concluded Saddam hoped eventually to redevelop weapons to deter Iran and enhance his regional power, not to attack the United States.

• The cost of the war. Kerry's claim that the war in Iraq has cost $200 billion is an exaggeration. According to the White House Office of Management and Budget, the war in Iraq has cost $119 billion through the end of September. Kerry's figure includes money spent in Afghanistan and money the administration has requested for Iraq in the 2005 fiscal year, but which Congress hasn't approved.

• The U.S. military. "We don't need mass armies anymore," Bush said, arguing that modern weapons and moving troops out of Europe where they're no longer needed would help give the United States the manpower it needs.

Currently, nine of the U.S. Army's 10 divisions are or have been involved in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and 40 percent of the forces in Iraq are members of the U.S. National Guard and Reserves.

• A general's retirement. Kerry's allegation that the administration forced Army chief of staff Gen. Eric Shinseki into early retirement after he suggested it would take several hundred thousand troops to invade and occupy Iraq isn't quite accurate. Shinseki retired on schedule, but Defense Department officials announced his retirement and his successor early, effectively neutralizing his authority and signaling their displeasure with dissent.

• Homeland security. Bush's claim that his administration has tripled spending on homeland security is an exaggeration. The budget for programs now administered by the Department of Homeland Security has more than doubled since 2001, to approximately $24 billion in fiscal year 2004, which just ended. Total domestic spending on homeland security is now about $41 billion a year, about double what it was three years ago.

• Jobs. Kerry's charge that "the president has presided over an economy where we've lost 1.6 million jobs" was misleading. Kerry referred only to private-sector job losses. If you count new jobs in the public sector, the economy has lost 821,000 jobs since Bush became president, according to the most recent Labor Department report.
 
• Health care. Bush's charge that the federal government would run Kerry's health-care plan is "grossly misleading," according to FactCheck.org, an independent arbiter run by the Annenberg Center at the University of Pennsylvania and recommended to voters by Vice President Dick Cheney during his debate with Sen. John Edwards on Tuesday. According to FactCheck.org, 97 percent of all Americans would keep the private health insurance they now have. Kerry's plan is much bigger than the president's alternative, but it wouldn't create any new federal bureaucracy.

• Environment. Some statistics support Bush's claim that "the quality of America's air is cleaner since I became the president of the United States"; others dispute it. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, total emissions of five major air pollutants have decreased since Bush became president. But the EPA also says that U.S. cities exceeded clean-air standards on a total of 1,535 days in 2000 compared to 2,035 days in 2002, and the number of Americans breathing smoggy air has increased from 81 million in 2000 to 100 million in 2002.

• Taxes. Bush said the Kerry plan to roll back the Bush tax cuts on taxpayers with incomes over $200,000 would raises taxes on 900,000 small businesses. That number includes all taxpayers who claim "business income." The nonpartisan Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center places the number of such businesses at about 471,000. As Kerry said, that would include Bush, who in his 2001 tax return reported $84 in business income from a timber-growing business in which he held a small stake.

The president's charge that Kerry voted to raise taxes 98 times was an exaggeration. Kerry has voted for higher taxes, but the number 98 includes multiple times that Kerry voted on versions of the same tax legislation.

Talking up his tax cuts, Bush said, "You remember we increased that child credit by $1,000." Actually, his package increased the child credit to $1,000, up by $500.

• Deficit. Twice, moderator Charles Gibson asked the candidates to explain how they'd cut the deficit in half in five years, as both have promised. Neither Bush nor Kerry answered.

The bipartisan Concord Coalition, a deficit watchdog group, said that using Kerry's numbers for his proposals, he would raise the total deficit to $1.27 trillion by 2014. Bush's proposals would raise it to $1.33 trillion, it said.

Information on the child tax credit is from The Associated Press.