Iraq affects Australia election

By Richard C. Paddock
Los Angeles Times

Prime Minister John Howard is a Bush ally.

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On the other side is an aggressive challenger a generation younger who calls the war a mistake and pledges to bring home most of the troops by Christmas.

On Saturday, Australia's voters will decide who should lead their country: John Howard, a shrewd three-term prime minister who has closely allied himself with President Bush, or Mark Latham, a brash Labor Party leader who once broke a taxi driver's arm in a quarrel over a fare.

Polls show the race is close, with Howard, 65, holding a slim lead over Latham, 43. For most Australians, the election is likely to turn on the question of the economy, which should be an advantage for the Liberal Party incumbent since Australia has enjoyed a prolonged period of growth during his 8-1/2 years at the helm.

Nevertheless, Latham — who once referred to Bush as "the most incompetent and dangerous president in living memory" — has attracted considerable support by presenting himself as the candidate of change.

	Mark Latham has launched a strong challenge.

He has promised to maintain the nation's strong economy, provide greater opportunities for working people — and bring Australia's roughly 850 soldiers home from the war zone.

"The whole thing is much closer than anyone predicted," said Greg Lindsay, who was once a friend of Latham's and is director of the Centre for Independent Studies, a conservative think tank in Sydney. "Iraq will be an issue, but it will not be the deciding issue. For most people, things like the movement of interest rates are very important."

The Bush administration has seen one key ally in the war driven from office: Spanish Prime Minister José María Aznar was defeated in March elections by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who then pulled his nation's 1,300 troops out of Iraq.

At the White House, the possibility that another ally could be ousted before the U.S. presidential election Nov. 2 has sparked such concern that top administration officials have assailed Latham's troop-withdrawal plan.

In June, with Howard at his side at the White House, Bush called Latham's plan "disastrous." Underlying the debate is Australia's ambivalence over its relationship with one of its most important allies. Australians value independence but also know friendship with the United States is essential to their security.

Howard, for one, believes the U.S. relationship is paramount. He once described Australia's role in the Asia-Pacific region as Washington's "deputy sheriff." During U.S. preparations for war in Iraq, Howard embraced the Bush doctrine of pre-emption and early on pledged troops.

But other Australians dislike the idea of their country being treated as if it were America's 51st state. Latham has sharply criticized Howard's close ties with Bush, sometimes in vulgar terms. When Howard traveled to the United States to meet with the president, Latham said: "He went, he kissed some bums and got patted on the head."

Polls show a majority of Australians oppose the war in Iraq but also oppose an abrupt withdrawal of their troops, most of whom provide security for Australian diplomats and train Iraqi forces.

Public opposition to the war might be far greater but for the fact that not a single Australian had been killed or kidnapped in Iraq as of Monday. Similarly, Howard was fortunate politically that no Australians were killed in a Sept. 9 suicide truck bombing outside his nation's embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Rather than sending troops to Iraq, Latham argues that Australia should focus on fighting terrorism in Southeast Asia, where Australians have been the targeted in other attacks. Nearly 90 Australians were killed in the 2002 Bali nightclub bombings.

In the end, the election likely will come down to whether Australians are tired of Howard and ready for the kind of change — and uncertainty — that Latham's candidacy represents.

Howard is a staid, conservative monarchist and onetime Sydney lawyer who has been a member of Parliament for 30 years.

As prime minister he instituted a harsh policy of locking up all undocumented asylum seekers, including children, who come from other countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan.

Like Howard, Latham has been in politics much of his adult life. He served for a short time as mayor of the town of Liverpool, near Sydney. Howard is running ads accusing him of mismanaging that community's money.

Latham has drawn support from voters with proposals to give free hospital care to those older than 75; take money from elite private schools and spend it on schools in poor districts; cut welfare payments to push aid recipients off the dole; and preserve giant old-growth trees in Tasmania.

Latham says he would like to help the United States regain the high moral standing it once held.

"I want to render the United States the best service any Australian prime minister ever could," he said.

Copyright © 2004 The Seattle Times Company

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