Kyoto Protocol nearing approval

By Seattle Times news services

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MOSCOW — The Russian Cabinet approved ratification of the Kyoto Protocol yesterday, a step that effectively sets the stage for worldwide enactment of the landmark global-warming accord after years of diplomatic wrangling.

Reached in 1997 after two years of talks, the pact calls for the world's industrialized countries to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases linked to global warming. Proponents still need backing from Russia's Parliament, both chambers of which are controlled by Russian President Vladimir Putin's loyalists, who are expected to fall in line with yesterday's decision.

The United States and Australia are the only industrial nations not ratifying the treaty.

Because the United States refused to endorse the pact, Russia's ratification is needed for the accord to become effective.

The treaty needs to be approved by no fewer than 55 industrial countries that cumulatively represent at least 55 percent of greenhouse-gas emissions. The U.S. represents 36 percent of the world's greenhouse-gas emissions, and its rejection of the pact left Russia as the only other industrial polluter large enough to push the treaty over the 55 percent threshold.

"Today's decision was historic," said Georgy Safanov, director of the Russian Regional Environment Center and a longtime advocate of the pact. "Human beings affect climate, and there is just one way to prevent this: a global initiative on reducing our impact on climate."

Kyoto Protocol highlights Key points about the treaty, drafted in 1997 at a U.N. conference in Kyoto, Japan: Obliges industrialized countries, as a group, to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by 5.2 percent from 1990 level by 2012. Gases believed to trap heat in atmosphere, warming Earth. Nations may offset emission requirements by properly managing forests and farmlands that absorb carbon dioxide. Can earn further credits by helping developing countries cut emissions. Allows for "emissions trading": buying and selling of right to pollute, to give profit motive for businesses to reduce emissions. Member countries face mandatory punishment if they fail to meet emission targets. Treaty requires ratification by 55 countries responsible for 55 percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions. Takes effect 90 days after receiving sufficient ratification. United States rejected pact in 2001, saying it would harm its economy and unfairly favored developing countries.

Klaus Toepfer, chief of the U.N. Environment Program, called the Russian government's decision a "cause for celebration. ... I hope other nations, some of whom, like Russia, have maybe been in the past reluctant to ratify, will now join us in this truly global endeavor."

In May, after Putin met with leaders of the European Union, a staunch advocate of the Kyoto treaty, the Russian leader expressed enthusiasm for the accord. He vowed to move Russia toward fast ratification of the pact, a decision that appeared to be tied to the EU's decision to back Russia's bid to join the World Trade Organization, a goal the Kremlin has eyed since 1993.

Russia is the largest country still outside the WTO. Member nations enjoy lower tariffs and other benefits when they trade manufactured goods and certain services with other member nations. Getting support from the EU, Russia's largest trading partner, was crucial for Russia's bid for membership into the WTO's 147-nation body.

Analysts said it was the EU's decision to support WTO membership for Russia that became the decisive factor as the Kremlin weighed Kyoto ratification.

Many experts also believed Russia would back the accord because doing so would mean a windfall of as much as $1 billion.

The Kyoto treaty is supposed to work like a giant stock market, with companies buying and selling pollution credits. There's money to be made by some companies that cut their emissions deeply, as they could sell pollution credits to others, which then don't have to clean up. American companies won't get to play and won't get to sell tens of millions of dollars' worth of emissions reductions because the United States hasn't ratified Kyoto.

Russia has a large amount of surplus quota, since the emission limits are set to 1990 levels, when the industries of the Soviet Union were producing much greater quantities of greenhouse gases. Russia's emissions have fallen 32 percent since 1990 due to the post-Soviet industrial meltdown, but they have started to rise again amid an economic revival.

If the United States had signed on, it would've had to reduce emissions to 7 percent below its 1990 levels. In 2002, the United States was 11.5 percent above 1990 levels.

The pact calls for developed nations to cut greenhouse-gas emissions 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by 2012. Greenhouse gases covered by the treaty include carbon dioxide, methane, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, nitrous oxide and sulfur dioxide. Once in effect, the pact requires member countries to abide by emissions quotas assigned to them for five years, from 2008 through 2012.

So far, 125 nations have ratified the treaty, representing 44.2 percent of the world's greenhouse-gas emissions, according to data furnished by the United Nations.

The United States signed on to the treaty under President Clinton in 1998, but the Senate did not ratify the pact. Since then, the Bush administration has said it opposes ratification, complaining that the treaty imposes unrealistic cutbacks in greenhouse gas emissions that ultimately would hinder economic growth. Bush aides also argue that major polluters that are deemed by the pact to be developing nations, such as India and China, would not be bound by the same stringent cutbacks industrialized nations face, and therefore would have an unfair economic edge.

"The U.S. stands out in the cold," said Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton University professor of geosciences and international affairs. "This is one of the biggest problems the world is going to face, and the U.S. doesn't have a policy."

In Washington, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher reaffirmed U.S. opposition to the agreement. He noted that the United States is pushing ahead on its goal of reducing the nation's greenhouse-gas emissions by 18 percent within eight years.

Democratic presidential challenger Sen. John Kerry has said Washington should take a lead in confronting global warming, although he also says it is too late to sign up for Kyoto.

European nations — which will have to pay for pollution controls to reduce their emissions — may try to punish U.S. companies — which won't have to — with a tariff on U.S. goods, said William Moomaw, the director of the Center for International Environment and Resource Policy at Tufts University. That could damage U.S. exports and the U.S. economy, he said.

While Putin, who once joked that the chilly regions of Russia could benefit from global warming, basks in the praise of environmentalists, climate experts say that, even with the treaty in place, the world has barely started tackling climate change.

"The Kyoto Protocol undoubtedly sets very low targets compared to what scientists say is necessary in order to keep climate change under control," said Germana Canzi, a climate-policy expert with the World Wide Fund for Nature. "However, it has always been considered a first step rather than the solution to the problem."

Scientists say a reduction of at least 70 percent of greenhouse emissions over this century is necessary to curb the worst effects of climate change, which could include rising sea levels, flooding and more frequent chaotic weather such as hurricanes and droughts. A new round of climate talks is scheduled for December in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and negotiations on greenhouse-gas emissions after 2012 are due to start next year.

"It is absolutely necessary to have a broader climate agreement where also the United States, especially, and Australia are taking part," said Leif Bernegaard, a Swedish climate expert who took part in Kyoto negotiations.

Compiled from The Chicago Tribune, Knight Ridder Newspapers, The Associated Press and Christian Science Monitor

Copyright © 2004 The Seattle Times Company

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