Republican National Convention
Potential '08 candidates hard at work

By Steven Thomma
Knight Ridder Newspapers

STEVEN SENNE / AP President Bush and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a possible future presidential candidate, appear in Nashua, N.H., yesterday.

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Keenly aware that George Bush and Dick Cheney will never run again, a slew of Republicans are using the convention to start angling for the party's 2008 nomination.

Their opportunities to schmooze ranged from prime-time speeches yesterday by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain to a get-acquainted lunch with the press Thursday by Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

In between, a dozen or more potential candidates are taking every chance to impress the delegates, activists and donors who could propel one of them to the nomination four years hence.

"This is a free-for-all," said Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla. "This is a great theater, a great showcase for those candidates, and yet they do have to be mindful and careful," lest they be perceived as improperly stealing this year's spotlight from President Bush.

"People are testing the waters," added Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. "The body's not cold. Nobody's even sick yet. But they're ready."

No one dares suggest how he might shift the party in the post-Bush years. Too much depends not only on whether Bush is re-elected, but also on how successful his second term might be.

But the convention offers too tempting an opportunity for early posturing, what with all the party's power brokers in one place. While television cameras focus largely on the convention hall, would-be candidates are meeting with influential insiders at receptions and parties from breakfast until the wee hours.

At a reception hosted by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, supporters interrupted Giuliani during a speech Sunday afternoon, urging him to run in '08. "We're not going to think about '08," a broadly grinning Giuliani responded.

At a party hosted by the Log Cabin Republicans, a gay group, supporters burst into applause when their executive director introduced New York Gov. George Pataki by saying, "To some of us in this room, President Pataki sounds damned nice."

Many featured speakers at the convention include potential 2008 candidates in addition to Giuliani, McCain, Pataki and Romney. Among them: Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, Sen. Bill Frist of Tennessee and Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
 
One, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, could run only if the Constitution were amended to allow a foreign-born president. That's highly unlikely before the 2008 election.

Other possible 2008 candidates include Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, Sen. Norm Coleman of Minnesota, Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Sen. George Allen of Virginia, Gov. Bill Owens of Colorado, Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge.

The most compelling among them is McCain. He ran in 2000, losing the nomination to Bush. But he did win the New Hampshire primary, and in several states he demonstrated an ability to draw support from independents and some Democrats.

He's the only possible candidate for 2008 who's run before, no small factor in a party that likes the familiar.

The biggest challenge to a second McCain campaign would be his health. He would be 72 on Election Day 2008, which would make him the oldest president ever elected. Moreover, he's had recurring bouts of malignant melanoma, a form of skin cancer.

Also, as a man who relishes challenging his party on topics such as tax cuts and campaign finance, McCain is suspect to many conservative Republicans. He's spent this campaign supporting Bush, which could earn him some points from conservatives, but maintained his independent appeal by refusing to criticize fellow Vietnam veteran and Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry.

But he'd be far from a slam dunk to win the nomination.

The other most intriguing candidate would be Jeb Bush, who skipped the convention in Florida in the wake of Hurricane Charley. If elected, he would firmly establish the Bush political dynasty as the country's pre-eminent political family.

More interested in policy than politics, the president's younger brother has built a solid base in the diverse and pivotal battleground of Florida. Despite a massive Democratic effort to defeat him in 2002, he coasted to a 56 to 44 percent win en route to a second term. That alone would make him a contender for his party's nomination.

But more than any other Republican, his fate is tied to that of his brother. Should George W. Bush win, the success of his second term (the third Bush term) would determine if there's any hunger for another Bush. Should George W. Bush lose, it probably would take more than four years to restore the luster to the brand name.