A year after mega-blackout, encore seen as less likely

By Tom Incantalupo
Newsday

MIKE APPLETON / AP, 2003 Stranded commuters sleep on the steps of the Central Post Office in New York during the early hours of last August's blackout.

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"I believe we're safer than we were last year, but not dramatically so," said William Museler, president of the nonprofit New York Independent System Operator, which manages the flow of power in the New York area.

Experts say that improvements in equipment, communication between utilities, maintenance and monitoring have resulted from the events of Aug. 14, 2003, when a rapidly cascading chain of events left people in the Northeast, upper Midwest and part of Canada without lights or air conditioning.

But experts say the complex "grid" system that interlocks utilities remains fragile, plagued by overloads and, in the case of many utilities, inadequately monitored by government to ensure that procedures are followed to prevent outages.

Many contend that governmental deregulation of the industry since 1996 has increased competition but also has left many utilities strapped for cash and uncertain how they would recoup the billions of dollars in upgrades that some believe are needed to ease bottlenecks and congestion on the grid.

"The utilities are caught in a squeeze," said Lester Lave, a business professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh and head of an interdepartmental research group at the school that studies the electric-power industry.

Federal and state deregulation required utilities in much of the nation to sell their power plants to independent generating companies and to open their wires. That led to a confusing array of long-distance power transfers that added stress to the aged grid.

2003 not 1977 Unlike New York's 1977 blackout, with its arson and looting, last year's blackout generated many fond recollections for New Yorkers. Some restaurants are even holding blackout anniversary parties, with menus featuring all-black food and cocktails. Eighty people have made reservations to eat blackened swordfish, fettuccine dyed in squid ink and a blackout cake by candlelight at a Brooklyn restaurant. Another eatery will serve, also by candlelight, blackened steak and "blackout cocktails" — martinis served with chocolate syrup and topped with pieces of chocolate. The Associated Press

On the upside, Museler noted, are new computers, better training and other improvements where the blackout began, in Ohio on the system of FirstEnergy when an overloaded power line touched a tree.

But the major recommendation of a special commission looking into the blackout's causes — turning voluntary guidelines for utility operations such as regular tree-trimming into mandatory federal rules — hasn't been acted upon.

Democrats accuse Republican leadership in the Senate and House of holding up legislation to make guidelines mandatory because it was in a broad GOP-authored energy bill containing other provisions on which Democrats and Republics disagreed. A subsequent bill that covers only electrical utility performance standards also is hung up.

"It should be a no-brainer," said Jason Babbie, environmental policy analyst for the New York Public Interest Research Group. "It's not controversial, and it would protect millions of people."

Calls to Republican congressional leaders weren't returned. White House spokesman Trent Duffy said President Bush backs mandatory standards — but as part of a comprehensive energy package. "He pushed hard last year to finish the bill," Duffy said, but "the Democrats in the Senate blocked its final passage."

State utility commissions already mandate Northeast utilities to follow procedures such as tree trimming near power lines. But about 40 percent of electricity generated nationally is by companies covered only by voluntary guidelines.

Museler favors making national guidelines mandatory for all utilities. "The last five blackouts in the U.S. all have been caused by failure to follow the rules," he said.

He said the nation would be better off focusing resources on emergency backup power.

"It's going to happen again — hopefully not for a long time," he said. "This system is just too complicated to prevent blackouts."

Copyright © 2004 The Seattle Times Company

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