Analysis
Bush hopes to block the bounce

By Dan Balz and David S. Broder
The Washington Post

August is seen as critical for President Bush.

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If Kerry begins the final two months with a clear lead, they worry, the president's prospects for winning a second term will be in danger.

Kerry's convention energized Democrats, and his campaign hopes to seize control of the race with its cross-country trip in the next two weeks. But the first national poll released since Kerry's acceptance speech Thursday night showed little gain for the Democrats.

The Newsweek poll showed Kerry and John Edwards leading Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney by 52 to 44 percent, a net gain of 2 percentage points from an early July poll.

	Sen. John Kerry hopes to seize control of race.

When independent Ralph Nader was included, Kerry led Bush by 49 to 42 percent, with Nader at 3 percent. That represents a 4-point gain for Kerry since early July. Smaller, less reliable nightly samples suggested Kerry had picked up more support after his acceptance speech.

A region-by-region look:

SOUTH

Florida remains the main battlefield, with Democrats arguing that several developments have improved the ticket's chances. An apparent split in the Miami Cuban community over new Bush-ordered restrictions on travel and remittances to Cuba and the growth of non-Cuban Hispanic population in the Orlando area can help Kerry.

But Republicans say the continued influx of tax-averse retirees will offset Democratic gains, and they believe Gov. Jeb Bush again will find votes to help his brother.

The addition of Edwards to the ticket has put his home state of North Carolina into play, and Republicans agree that they cannot assume it is safe.

Democrats also have talked from time to time about — and committed some TV dollars to — Louisiana, Virginia, Arkansas and Tennessee. Republicans dismiss claims they are battlegrounds, and some Democrats agree.

NORTHEAST

The big prize is Pennsylvania, which Vice President Al Gore carried by 4 percentage points. Republicans say Bush's 31 visits to the state, plus his initiatives on education and prescription drugs, have boosted his stock. But Gov. Edward Rendell, a Democrat, said Kerry will win because Bush's stands on social issues hurt him in the Philadelphia suburbs and the economy is weak in the western parts of the state.

Another battleground is New Hampshire, which Bush narrowly won. The economy is better, but Democrats say many in the high-tech sector have been forced into low-wage service jobs. Kerry won't ignore the state, as Gore did.

MIDWEST

More states — and far more electoral votes — are up for grabs here.

No Republican has won the White House without Ohio, and Kerry has made it a major target. No state has lost more industrial jobs over three years, and there are few signs of recovery.

Independent liberal groups have sent in hundreds of people to sign up voters in hard-hit areas, and it appears questionable that the GOP can overcome the economic drag. Bush cannot afford to lose Ohio and will be there regularly.

Democrats are less hopeful about Missouri, where Bush is strong in the suburbs and rural areas.

Three states — all closely won by Gore — look inviting to the Bush campaign. Minnesota, once a liberal bastion, has been trending Republican. Wisconsin, where Kerry leads narrowly, was the site of a major battle in 2000 and will be again. Iowa is perhaps the least likely of the three to go for Bush.

Michigan, which also went for Gore, continues to suffer job losses. It would be remarkable for Bush to win in a state with 6.5 percent unemployment.

WEST

Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada and Oregon appear to be the most closely contested states. Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, a Democrat, says her polling shows Kerry behind, "but not by a lot," and says changing demographics — with Hispanics and young families moving in — will make the state competitive. The conservative base remains sizable, and Republican Sen. John McCain, the state's most popular public figure, is heading the Bush campaign.

Oregon is one of the Gore states where Republicans see an opportunity. The state has had a continuing tax revolt, and Gov. Ted Kolongoski, a Democrat, said the tax issue could be Bush's best and Kerry's toughest.

New Mexico, which Gore carried by 366 votes, is also a major target for Bush. His resource and public-lands policy is popular with business, but polls show little headway for Bush in the growing Hispanic population.

Copyright © 2004 The Seattle Times Company

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