Edwards raises hopes of Southern Democrats

By Ken Fireman
Newsday

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The addition of native son John Edwards to the Democratic ticket has energized long-suffering party loyalists in North Carolina, who suddenly sense an opening to win their state in a presidential election for the first time since 1976.

It has raised similar hopes among Democrats throughout the South. A new poll by Zogby International found that Edwards' selection as John Kerry's running mate has cut Bush's lead in the region from 18 percentage points to 3, and Democrats say at least four and possibly six of the 11 Southern states will be up for grabs in the fall.

"Come November 2nd, we are going to hang out a 'Mission Accomplished' sign over every precinct here in North Carolina," said Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, alluding to the banner that hung behind Bush when he prematurely proclaimed victory in Iraq. "I'm sure one is available cheap these days on eBay."

Edwards also may help Kerry, in the South and elsewhere, appeal to black voters who are anti-Bush but have been slow to warm to the Massachusetts senator. Several black activists noted that Edwards won a big majority among African-American voters in South Carolina's primary.

"With Edwards' selection, Kerry is saying, 'I respect you and I heard you and I've added someone to the ticket you can identify with even if you can't identify with me,' " said Jim Felder, who runs a black-voter education program in Columbia, S.C.

But experts in Southern politics — and even some rank-and-file Democrats — say that this wave of Democratic optimism is likely to break against the rock of Republican dominance in the region.

They note that Southern states have been leaning toward the Republican Party in presidential elections for more than a quarter of a century, in large part because GOP candidates have tapped into the cultural conservatism of Southern voters to neutralize the economic issues that used to hurt the party. Bush won all 11 states in the region in 2000.

"I'm not sure what it would take for the Democrats to carry this state," Richard O'Connor, an assets manager for a Raleigh mortgage company, said as he listened to Marshall speak at a Kerry-Edwards rally Wednesday. "I'd love to think that they would, but I'm also a realist. I understand how this state operates; I have a feeling it will happen again."

The rally in a downtown park, along with the highway graffiti and a mock "early retirement party" for the president at a local tavern, was intended to send Bush a message on the day he visited last week.

It seems the message was received. The Bush campaign immediately added North Carolina to the list of states where its latest TV spot will be aired. And the president hastily added a feel-good, made-for-the-media moment that made a predictably big splash on local TV.
 
Any slippage in the South probably would be fatal to Bush's chances, analysts say. He won in 2000 by the barest of margins while sweeping the South, and seems to have only limited opportunities this year to pick off states that went against him the last time.

"If the Republican Party is going to be successful in a close election, it has to win at least 10 of the 11 Southern states," said Jack Fleer, a political scientist at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, N.C., who specializes in Southern politics.

Fleer said the massive loss of textile jobs has created openings for Democrats in both North and South Carolina. He said they also are positioned to compete in Louisiana, where Kerry's Catholicism may have appeal in the heavily Catholic southern part of the state, and Edwards' populist message could attract support in rural northern Louisiana.

Edwards also will help in northern Florida, which is culturally more in tune with the Deep South than the rest of the state, Fleer said. Arkansas is another state where Edwards could make his party competitive.