Flurry of high-profile meetings could help or hurt Bush

By Ronald Brownstein
Los Angeles Times

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WASHINGTON — From Rome to Istanbul, President Bush faces a diplomatic gantlet in June that could burnish his image as an international leader or provide new ammunition for Sen. John Kerry's charge that he has isolated the United States in the world.

With anxiety over Iraq dominating the presidential race, an unusual concentration of international summits offers Bush probably his best opportunity before Election Day to highlight his credentials as a world leader on a stage unavailable to Kerry, his presumptive Democratic challenger.

But next month's events — a commemoration of the 60th anniversary of D-Day in France; a gathering of leaders of the world's top industrialized nations on Sea Island, Ga.; U.S.-European Union talks in Ireland; and a NATO summit in Turkey — also present Bush with unusual risks, many analysts agree.

If the meetings do not produce much tangible help on Iraq or reveal continuing tension with traditional allies, they could reinforce Kerry's central foreign-policy argument against Bush: that he has alienated too many other nations, leaving the United States bearing too much of the burden in Iraq.

"If ... the feeling is that things are harmonious, that will play to Bush's advantage," said Steven Kull, director of the University of Maryland's program on International Policy Attitudes. "But if information comes back about demonstrations — about criticism and hostility — and the image of the world being critical of us grows, that could significantly hurt him."

International summits often have been perfunctory and predictable events. In an election year, such meetings have provided presidents a relatively low-risk opportunity to emphasize a "stature gap" with challengers by spotlighting their role as a global leader.

But because this year's presidential race is revolving so much around foreign policy in general — and Iraq in particular — analysts in both parties believe the pressure on Bush to produce concrete achievements may be higher than usual.

"If these opportunities come and go without more help (on Iraq), it is going to be a disaster," said one Republican activist close to the Bush campaign. "He's selling himself as a leader. But right now, who's he leading?"

Richard Holbrooke, ambassador to the United Nations under President Clinton and a top foreign-policy adviser to Kerry, said the meetings offer Bush "a tremendous opportunity" to rebuild ties abroad and polish his foreign-policy credentials at home.
 
But Holbrooke said that if Bush returns empty-handed on Iraq, especially from the NATO summit, "I would say he's failed again."

Adding to the stakes for Bush is the timing. These gatherings will occur as the administration is in the process of transferring sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government and trying to win a U.N. resolution blessing the handoff.

Administration officials and European diplomats are cautiously optimistic about reaching consensus on a resolution, which should give Bush an important victory during this period of intense scrutiny. Kerry's case against Bush, however, could be bolstered if the talks on the resolution bog down.

Beyond the substance of the meetings, the month's whirlwind of diplomatic activity may provide powerful symbols that shape the campaign debate.

Images from the D-Day commemoration on June 6 in Normandy, France, could suggest reconciliation between Bush and European leaders who will join him at the event. The occasion also could allow the president to link the struggle in Iraq with American valor during World War II.

On the other hand, Bush's visits to Rome and Paris en route to Normandy and his trip to Istanbul in late June expose him to the risk of large protests.

Italian opposition parties are organizing demonstrations against Bush. In Paris, left-leaning groups also have called for protests against Bush, but observers there say it is unclear how much of a response they will generate — especially against the backdrop of the celebration of America's role in liberating France from Nazi Germany.

Administration officials and foreign diplomats are optimistic that the leaders of industrial nations meeting at the G-8 summit in Georgia will approve a Bush proposal for a Greater Middle East Initiative aimed at encouraging democratic reform in the Islamic world.

It also appears likely that NATO will approve the so-called Istanbul Cooperative Initiative, which seeks to expand military ties between the alliance and Middle Eastern countries, officials say.

But meeting Bush's most-pressing political need — producing more immediate help in Iraq — may be far more difficult.

At hearings before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week, senior administration officials acknowledged it was unlikely NATO would provide significant numbers of troops or accept an operational role in Iraq, as Kerry has urged.

"We'd love to see a larger NATO role," testified Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz. "(But) I don't think anybody is going to want to put a lot of troops into Iraq until the killing stops."