Party vote today in Israel tests Sharon's Gaza plan

By Laura King
Los Angeles Times

URIEL SINAI / GETTY IMAGES Israeli soldiers walk past Likud referendum posters calling for a vote against Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's Gaza disengagement plan.

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JERUSALEM — Ariel Sharon's trademark characteristics include his bulky build, a trumpeting voice — and an extraordinary political resilience.

Today, that storied ability to bounce back from adversity will be put to a crucial test as members of his conservative Likud party hold a referendum on the Israeli prime minister's proposal to withdraw from the Gaza Strip. Polls have suggested they are likely to reject the plan.

Sharon envisions his initiative as an ambitious first step toward unilaterally drawing the borders of Israel and those of a future Palestinian state. While he is ready to relinquish Gaza, Sharon has announced his intention to retain several large Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Over the past several days, half a dozen opinion polls have forecast a rebuff of the plan by margins of up to eight percentage points. Defeat would not only throw into doubt Sharon's ability to move ahead with a Gaza pullout but might ultimately cause the prime minister to lose his grip on power.

Sharon, who had initially pledged to abide by the referendum result, has said in recent days he does not consider it legally binding. But a "no" vote would sharply restrict his maneuvering room if he brings the plan as promised before his divided Cabinet and the often-contentious Knesset, or parliament.

Polls have consistently suggested that most Israelis are ready to get out of Gaza. Many regard it as a quagmire that exacts a too-heavy toll of Israeli troops who guard the settlements where about 7,500 Jews live among more than 1.2 million Palestinians.

But this is not a vote by the general public. Those eligible to cast ballots in the referendum are 193,000 registered members of Likud, which for decades has opposed the relinquishing of any Jewish settlements.

Seeing his numbers slipping, Sharon made an urgent round of final appeals for support.

"I am in the midst of a battle," he said in a TV interview aired as the Jewish Sabbath began Friday, invoking the military metaphors he often employs at times of crisis. "I have not surrendered ... I have always continued to stand fast even at times when others have lost hope."

The prime minister has warned that a rejection of his plan would damage relations with the United States, quash Israel's economic recovery and please Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

Sharon said he did not want to talk about what would happen if he lost, but raised the possibility of calling new elections. He also suggested he might eject far-right opponents from his Cabinet and form a new alliance with the left-leaning Labor Party, which backs his plan.

Commentators noted that Sharon, whose political obituary has been written repeatedly, has managed to reinvent himself after suffering some grave setback.

"The polls predict defeat," political reporter Aluf Benn wrote in the Haaretz newspaper. "But Sharon, it must be remembered, is Mr. Comeback."

Copyright © 2004 The Seattle Times Company

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