Dominance of the ANC raises fear of one-party state

By Robyn Dixon
Los Angeles Times

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Ten years after the end of the apartheid system, the loyalty of blacks to the party of liberation was clear in the throngs of people lining up from dawn. But Tom Lodge, a professor of politics at Witwatersrand University, said the lines in urban areas were "moderate" compared with the two previous post-apartheid elections.

The ANC was well ahead as early returns trickled in last night, and polls predicted it would win 65 to 70 percent of the vote. In the last elections, in 1999, it won 66 percent.

The Democratic Alliance, a predominantly white party that is trying to win black support, was expected to come in a distant second.

President Thabo Mbeki also was certain to be re-elected by parliament for a second and final term. The two main questions were the size of the turnout and whether the ANC would exceed the two-thirds majority it needs to amend the constitution. Mbeki has ruled out the constitutional change that would enable him to run for a third term.

Apartheid

The apartheid system classified people by race, trained blacks for low-paid manual jobs and relegated black and mixed-race people to second-class health and education facilities. Before 1994, only the white minority, about 10 percent of the population, had full rights.

Political analyst Patrick Laurence of the independent Helen Suzman Foundation, predicted a turnout similar to the previous 1999 elections, 71 percent of registered voters.

The election has raised questions about the implications of long-term ANC dominance of South African politics, with opposition parties warning that the country was in danger of heading toward one-party rule.

For Nomalanga Shongwe and millions of others, voting for any other party is inconceivable. She still lives in a tin shack without running water, electricity or a toilet. But, to her, the important change is that separatist practices have ended. In the 1980s, for example, she protested vainly for free education for her children. Today, her 8-year-old son is learning to program a computer.

"If it weren't for the ANC, we wouldn't even be here," said Shongwe, who lives in a sprawling squatter camp dotted with portable toilets. "We have to show loyalty."
 
No competition

Among other South Africans, the ANC's effortless domination of political life is raising concern that their new democracy is turning into a one-party state. More than 20 opposition parties exist, most tiny, none a serious national threat to the ANC.

"There is a danger because there are no other parties to keep the majority party in check," said Mandla Tshabala, 26, a YMCA volunteer. "The majority party has done its part. Now it has to give other parties a chance to do something better."

Tshabala grew up in Soweto, where stone-throwing teens battled the country's white rulers a decade ago and ANC activists are seen as heroes.

Yet Tshabala decided not to vote for the ANC this time. The past decade has been rough. Tshabala wanted to go into corporate business, but his parents were too poor to send him beyond technical school.

"We are no longer fighting the oppression of color. We are fighting the oppression of not being economically empowered," he said.

Laurence cited a study by the Institute of Democracy in South Africa that indicated that in Africa, people's faith in democracy declined in long periods of one-party rule and rose again when a change in political power seemed possible.

Laurence said the ANC's commitment to democracy was untested because its majority has been so huge.

"The real test is when your majority is dwindling and there's a real prospect of becoming a minority. The test is whether the ruling party is prepared to yield power, and we don't know yet how they will react. It's quite sobering," he said.

Information from Knight Ridder Newspapers is included in this report.

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