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Analysis: Why progress is unlikely in North Korea nuclear talks

By Mark Magnier
Los Angeles Times

	CHUNG SUNG-JUN / GETTY IMAGES South Korean policemen try to stop protesters from burning a North Korean flag during a rally yesterday in Seoul. The protest came as North Korea engages in six-party talks in Beijing to discuss its nuclear programs.
	E-mail this article Print this article Search archive Related stories South Korea offers 'compensation' if the North disarms U.N. agency: Food crisis has been averted, for now

The regime in Pyongyang, analysts say, is rooting for virtually anyone other than George W. Bush to be the next U.S. president. That's why many observers are expecting little progress at the six-party talks aimed at halting North Korea's nuclear program that started yesterday in Beijing.

"North Korea is waiting for its own regime change — in D.C.," said Pang Zhongying, professor of international relations at China's Nankai University.

In return for shutting down its weapons program, the North wants to get the most generous possible trade terms, aid and security guarantees. Pyongyang is betting that by stalling, it can achieve a better deal with a new administration, analysts say. Nor does it want to grace President Bush with a diplomatic victory that might help re-elect him.

"I expect North Korea to make certain compromises in the six-party talks to keep them going," said Li Dunqiu, a North Korea expert with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "But don't expect any real progress before the U.S. elections."

Bush has been tougher on North Korea than many of his predecessors. But analysts stress that North Korea's dislike of the administration is more than political. It's personal.

The president has vilified Kim as someone who banquets while others starve, and named North Korea as a member of the "axis of evil." In 2002, Bush told interviewer Bob Woodward: "I loathe Kim Jong Il." The Dear Leader is reportedly not quick to forget such things.

At the same time, many here aren't expecting the North Koreans to walk away from the talks. The isolated, cash-strapped Stalinist regime is pragmatic, and realizes that self-preservation — its ultimate goal — depends on having resources to distribute. There are few ways left to do that other than by expanding economic integration with the outside world, many now believe.

Pyongyang has recently taken modest steps to open its economy by allowing free markets, reducing subsidies and easing wage and price controls. But to tiptoe further down that road, it must come to terms with the United States, which holds great sway not only over international institutions such as the World Bank but also allies such as Japan and among private investors.

In recent days, ever-mercurial Pyongyang has hinted that it is ready to deal, at least on a limited basis. North Korean diplomat Son Mun San in Vienna reportedly has explored with the International Atomic Energy Agency ways to implement a weapons freeze — assuming an overarching agreement can be reached with the United States and the others at the talks: Japan, South Korea, China and Russia.

Still, analysts say there's little incentive for the Bush administration to forge new ground or make significant compromises with North Korea, and several reasons not to.
 
Bush will be in a stronger position to make demands on North Korea after November — assuming he's re-elected and the United States has restored sovereignty in Iraq to Iraqis. At that point, a U.S. threat of unilateral action against Pyongyang also would become more credible.

The administration continues to be divided internally on its North Korea policy — as has been the case over the past three years — amid bickering between those who want more give-and-take and hard-liners who believe compromise is unacceptable.

"There is disagreement within the U.S. government about what to offer Pyongyang, in what order, on what timetable," said Alan Romberg, senior associate with the Henry L. Stimson Center in Washington, D.C.

On recent visits to China, Undersecretary of Defense Douglas Feith and Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage have underscored the carrot Washington is holding out to North Korea: Come clean with your weapons program, as Libya did, and we'll work with you. Heading into elections, the White House would certainly welcome a quick deal that shows another so-called rogue state acquiescing to its demands.

But many analysts think North Korea is unlikely to accept the sort of intrusive inspections that Libya has allowed, given Pyongyang's far deeper distrust of the outside world. With expectations so low coming into these talks, and the White House juggling so many other issues, treading water with North Korea becomes an easy fallback position.

Japan and South Korea are more eager for a deal: Japan is pushing for progress as a precursor to solving the highly charged issue of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea, while South Korea would welcome a thaw with its northern neighbor.

But China is likely to be the key player at the talks. China is best positioned to bridge the gap between Washington and Pyongyang, analysts say, and note that Beijing has a large stake in ensuring that the negotiations don't fail completely.

While China has less leverage over its old communist ally than it once did, it still has closer relations than any other nation. It continues to provide substantial aid to North Korea, while official and unofficial trade links provide another lifeline.

At the same time, China has increasingly staked its future with the international community, and relations with the United States are better than they've been in some time.

In the lead-up to the talks, officials in Washington voiced concern that China appeared willing to turn a blind eye to North Korea's uranium-enrichment program — a program the Pyongyang regime denies having. Analysts in Beijing, however, say North Korea is just trying to divide its opponents by sowing debate over a uranium program, and in fact there's little difference in the overall objectives of the United States, China, Japan, South Korea and Russia in the talks.

"North Korea is playing games, trying to make things unclear," said Shi Yuanhua, director of the Center for Korean Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, China.

China comes into the talks with several objectives, analysts say. It wants a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, but for somewhat different reasons from the United States'. China fears that Japan or even Taiwan could go nuclear in response to North Korea's belligerence.

"From China's view, the North Korean threat is not so much from North Korea's nuclear program itself. It's because North Korea's action can be used as a pretext by others," said Jin Linbo, director of the China Institute of International Studies.

Beijing also wants to undercut any pretext the United States might have for launching a military strike in its neighborhood. And long term, it's concerned that Washington could use North Korea as an excuse to ramp up its missile-defense system.

Then there's China's role as host of the talks. An absolute failure in the next few days, with all parties stomping off, would be a loss of face for Beijing, especially after it worked hard to get things back on track after the first round of talks in August made little progress.

Even modest success, preferably backed by a document outlining shared objectives, would further bolster its standing as a global player and help gain points in Washington.

Eventually, scholars say, China would like to turn the six-party talks into a permanent grouping with itself at the center, initially to deal with North Korea but ultimately to help bolster its own regional influence.

"China's biggest objective is to see the talks continue," said Nankai University's Pang. "Beyond that, China would like to transform the talks into a regional security framework."

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