Razor-thin race whips Iowa into final frenzy

By Dan Balz
The Washington Post

	John Kerry: He may be the favorite, if latest media polls are accurate.
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DES MOINES, Iowa — Mary Zesiger once was all for Howard Dean but lately finds John Edwards "very persuasive." Jim Campbell never has wavered in his support for Dick Gephardt, while Andy Miller is torn between Edwards and John Kerry. And Jim Cornick was a Republican until last month. He now plans to caucus for Kerry as a Democrat.

Two days before one of the most competitive caucuses in the state's history, Iowa voters were working almost as hard as the candidates, turning up for pancake breakfasts, town-hall meetings, speeches, rallies and coffee-klatch conversations at local diners, all for a last look before casting their votes at precinct meetings across the state tomorrow night.

	Dick Gephardt: Political career may hinge on a victory in the caucuses.

"I'm going to tell you how tight this is," Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, a Democrat, said Friday night. "Ever been to Pella, Iowa? There are eight Democrats in Pella, on a good day. But Dean was there (Monday). I drove through there today, and Gephardt's bus was there. If those guys are scouring the hills in Pella, Iowa, for Democrats, this thing is close. Anybody who tells you how this is going to turn out; they're crazy."

The shifting attitudes of voters helps explain how the Iowa competition has been transformed from a two-person race between Dean and Gephardt into a wild, four-person contest that includes the surging candidacies of Kerry and Edwards.

Key campaign dates Highlights of the upcoming primary/caucus season: Jan. 27: New Hampshire primary Feb. 3: Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma primaries; New Mexico and South Carolina Democratic primaries; North Dakota Democratic caucuses. Feb. 7: Michigan Democratic primary; Washington caucuses. Next big primary date is March 2, which includes California and New York primaries.

Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman are skipping the Iowa caucuses to focus on next week's New Hampshire primary.

The late surge by Kerry and Edwards pushed them slightly ahead of Dean and Gephardt, a Des Moines Register poll showed yesterday.

Kerry leads the Iowa Poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, with 26 percent of likely caucus participants. Edwards, who was in single digits in an Iowa Poll two months ago, was second at 23 percent, his highest finish in any media poll. Dean slipped to third at 20 percent, and Gephardt, whose political career likely depends on a victory in Iowa, was fourth at 18 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

While Dean and Gephardt have lost support, Vilsack said victory will be determined by organizational strength, and those two are judged to have strong organizations.

In many states, politics is a spectator support, but in Iowa, it is a participatory pastime and never more than this weekend, as voters weigh candidates' stands on issues such as Iraq or trade against their personalities and style — and above all, electability. There are many issues on the minds of Iowa Democrats — health care, education reform, abortion, gay rights, civil liberties, farm policy — but none more overriding than ending George W. Bush's presidency.

Democratic anger at Bush has been evident for the past year, but the caucus process is showing that some Republicans share those feelings. Erik and Stephanie Edgren, son John in tow, waited for Dean in Oskaloosa on Friday morning.

"We agree with almost everything he (Dean) has to say," Erik Edgren said. "It started out that he's against the war in Iraq. We actually switched from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party so we could vote for Dean in the caucus. I voted for Bush; I'm disgusted by what he's done. I'm not a pacifist; I'm not namby-pamby against all wars. This was wrong."

Jim Cornick and his wife switched their registration to Democrat last month. "The number one issue with my wife and me is that President Bush must go, that our country has gone in a very, very radical direction," Cornick said after Kerry spent more than two hours answering questions from undecided voters at a local theater Thursday night. "As they (the administration) left us behind, we looked at each of the nine candidates for which one could beat George Bush."

In some elections, one issue dominates, as the economy did in 1992 and as the war seemed to among Democratic voters through much of the past year. But on the eve of the caucuses, that is not the case. The Edgrens, for example, like Dean for his stand on the war, his record on health care and early childhood issues, and his opposition to Bush's education plan.

"Some people are voting issues, some are voting to beat Bush, and some are voting for a president and some fighting for change," said Paul Maslin, Dean's pollster. "It's a total amalgam of things. Is there a dominant issue in this? No."

Dean's opposition to the Iraq war generated the first real wave of support for his candidacy in Iowa and continues to be his anchor heading toward tomorrow night. "His stand on the war got me involved with Dean right away," said Victoria Siegel, an Ottumwa lawyer. "I've been housing a staffer since June 4th."

But interviews with voters this week suggest the power of Iraq as the galvanizing issue has faded in the face of concerns about finding someone to defeat Bush.

Zesiger, of Ottuma, said she was attracted to Dean in large part because of the war, which she "so opposed" when it started. She said the issue has been diluted by her sense that Iraq was "a country in dire need of help," and she has begun to look hard at Edwards.

"Dean was my number one choice," she said Friday morning, still undecided. "I've been to see Edwards twice. Saw him last night. He was very persuasive. And he has such fire, and he has a vision. But Dean does, too." She hoped to make up her mind this weekend.

The candidate whose support may have wavered less than anyone's is Gephardt, whose union and senior base is considered rock solid by leading Democrats in Iowa, but who has not expanded much beyond that.

The former House Democratic leader held a raucous rally in Marshalltown on Thursday night, arriving in one of seven 18-wheelers carrying union presidents, who were greeted by a flag-waving crowd of chanting union activists.

The passion that unions feel about defeating Bush became evident when, in his speech, Gephardt made a dismissive reference to the president's new proposal that would send Americans back to the moon and eventually to Mars. Spontaneously, the union workers broke out in a chant: "Send Bush to Mars! Send Bush to Mars!"

Some Iowans are voting for more unusual reasons. Margaret Ademite, of Oskaloosa, is one of Kerry's precinct chairs. "I went with Kerry because of (his support for) the veterans — and the fact that he's the only candidate who set up an office in Oskaloosa. Isn't that a dumb reason to support a candidate?" she said with a laugh.

Joan Moll, of Des Moines, decided to support Edwards, in part because she was impressed when she learned the senator and his wife decided to have more children after losing their 16-year-old son in an automobile accident in 1996.

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