Iowa race close with 8 days left

By Adam Nagourney
The New York Times

	CHARLIE NEIBERGALL / AP Former Vice President Al Gore speaks to supporters of Howard Dean during a rally Friday at Dean's headquarters in Des Moines, Iowa. Dean leads all Democrats in the state caucus race.
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DES MOINES, Iowa — Eight days before the Iowa caucuses that will start the voting for the Democratic presidential nomination, Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt are battling for dominance in what many Democrats describe as the most contested and potentially decisive caucus campaign their party has seen in the state in 16 years.

Dean, the former governor of Vermont who has spent two years methodically campaigning through all 99 counties in Iowa, finds himself in the unlikely position of leading the Democratic field in national polls in his first bid for national office.

The transformation of Dean's candidacy was underscored by his scheduled appearances in eastern Iowa yesterday with two faces of the Democratic establishment: Sen. Tom Harkin, the dominant Democrat in this state, whose endorsement Friday provided a big boost to Dean's campaign, and Al Gore, the party's 2000 presidential nominee.

But Gephardt, a congressman from neighboring Missouri, won the Iowa caucuses in 1988 and retains a strong base of support. He has moved aggressively to block a Dean victory in Iowa, which Gephardt aides said almost certainly would spell an end to his second bid for the presidency.

Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses How it works: A caucus is a party meeting at each of the 1,993 political precincts where citizens pick delegates to their county conventions. Those delegates go to the county convention, where the field of candidates is winnowed again and more delegates picked to attend the district convention. The process is repeated there and again at the state convention, where delegates ultimately are named to the national convention. Iowa Republicans will send 25 delegates to their national convention, while Iowa Democrats will send 45. History: Caucuses in Iowa date to 1846, the year of statehood. The present system for Democrats has proportionate representation and affirmative action. Iowa Democrats adopted the new rules in 1972 and decided to put at least a month between dates for the national, state, district, county and precinct conventions. That is the reason, many say, that led to scheduling Iowa's caucuses in January. Participation: Turnout typically represents a fraction of registered party members and eligible voters. In 2000, 61,000 Democrats, about 10.8 percent, took part, compared to 87,600 Republicans, about 16.5 percent. Registered voters: Republican, 580,677; Democrat, 526,426; Green, 138; No Party, 684,090. Where: Caucuses are held predominantly in public buildings such as schools, libraries and government buildings. Some caucuses will be held in churches or community centers, and fewer than 4 percent of Democratic caucuses will be held in private homes this year. When: Jan. 19, 6:30 p.m. Central Standard Time. Weather: The average high temperature for Des Moines on Jan. 19 is 29. The average low is 9. At caucus time, the average temperature is 23 degrees. The record high for Des Moines on Jan. 19 was 57, in 1914. The record low was minus 26, in 1892. — The Associated Press

Gephardt rallies labor

Gephardt spent yesterday again campaigning through the tiny farming communities that his campaign believes can power him to victory, as representatives from nearly two dozen unions put the finishing touches on a get-out-the-vote operation that Gephardt's advisers said would counter what even they describe as the phenomenal enthusiasm of Dean's supporters.

"It is a very tight race," said Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, a Democrat who declined to endorse a candidate.

And Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, as he moved through an exhaustive sprint across a state that might well determine whether his campaign survives this month, said: "We're going to have a hell of a fight going into the last week."

The competition in Iowa has been complicated by spirited bids by Kerry and Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, each of whom has calculated that coming in second, or perhaps third, would lift his candidacy coming into the New Hampshire primary a week later. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut are not competing in Iowa.

Edwards' campaign got a huge boost this weekend with an endorsement by the state's largest newspaper, The Des Moines Register. In today's edition, The Register called Edwards "one of those rare, naturally gifted politicians who doesn't need a long record of public service to inspire confidence in his abilities."

Three other papers — the Quad-City Times in Davenport, the Iowa City Press-Citizen and the Hawk Eye in Burlington — endorsed Kerry, saying his foreign-policy experience makes him the best candidate to face President Bush in the fall election.

However, any success by Kerry and Edwards could draw votes from Gephardt or Dean, pulling them out of first place. That dynamic has become particularly apparent with Edwards, who is making a concerted effort to draw votes from Gephardt.

In an indication of how Byzantine the maneuverings have become, Harkin, in endorsing Dean, went out of his way to praise Edwards in what Democrats saw as a not-too-subtle attempt to build up Edwards' vote total at the expense of Gephardt.

In this frenzied environment, Democratic leaders predicted a turnout exceeding the 125,000 caucusgoers who voted the last time the Democrats had such a crowded and competitive fight, in 1988. But Democratic leaders said that many Iowans remain unenthused with the field and undecided over who to support.

The contest is entering its final eight days in an electoral environment quite different from what Democrats had expected when planning for this moment a year ago. The nation at the time was embroiled in a debate over whether to go to war in Iraq, and the economy was caught in a downturn.

By a number of measures, the economy appears to be recovering. In a poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers conducted by the Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times and released yesterday, one-third of even these most partisan of voters said the economy is now doing well. And with Saddam Hussein captured, even the subject of the war appears to be commanding less attention, as evidenced by the amount of time the candidates have devoted to the issue since Christmas.

The focus of Democrats trying to win this extraordinarily competitive race has turned, as it almost always does, to the rudiments of what it takes to win the arcane caucus system that inaugurates the Democratic nomination process. And the turnout effort appears particularly crucial this time given what Democrats said is the unusually high number of voters who remain uncommitted.

The candidates have responded by splurging on television advertisements, attack mailings, and by building huge and ambitious get-out-the-vote operations. Their efforts, apparent this weekend in bustling campaign headquarters filled with people who clearly are not from Iowa, reflect the calculation that the outcome could prove pivotal in determining whom the Democrats nominate in Boston next summer to run against Bush.

"It's going to be a fight to convince the undecideds," said Jeff Link, a long-time Democratic strategist and adviser to Harkin.

In endorsing Dean on Friday, Harkin specifically said he was trying to sway "those who are undecided." That appeal reflected concern among Dean's advisers about a last-minute rush of support to other candidates by these voters.

Gephardt, in his second bid for president, has embraced traditional methods of winning this contest, putting to service veterans of the Iowa caucuses and importing labor leaders to replicate the get-out-the-vote operation he used in winning the caucuses in 1988.

Dean has the benefit of his own union support, but his candidacy is distinguished both by the excitement he has stirred among supporters and by 3,500 out-of-state reinforcements that the campaign says will help to recruit caucusgoers, and get them to caucus sites Jan. 19.

"We have more people on the ground than any presidential campaign in the history of Iowa caucuses," said Dean's campaign manager, Joe Trippi, who worked on Gephardt's 1988 effort in Iowa.

Gephardt's campaign manager, Steve Murphy, offered a mirror view of the state of play in Iowa.

"It's a very close race, and organization is going to make a difference, and Dick Gephardt has by far the best organization in the state," he said.

In the Tribune-Times poll of 640 likely Democratic caucusgoers, conducted Monday through Wednesday, 30 percent said they would support Dean, and 23 percent named Gephardt. That difference falls within the poll's margin of error, and thus in theory, at least, the two men might be tied.

Kerry was named by 18 percent of respondents, followed by Edwards with 11 percent.

Others try New Hampshire

Clark, Lieberman and the Rev. Al Sharpton of New York are focusing on New Hampshire and the other states that follow Iowa.

Clark in particular has moved aggressively to turn his absence to his advantage, campaigning intensely through New Hampshire and, as many Democrats said, benefiting from being out of the line of fire in Iowa.

Clark's advisers said Friday night he was scaling back what was supposed to be a national fly-around to spend more time in New Hampshire. The decision was conveyed in a photocopied handwritten note slipped under the doors of reporters traveling with Clark.

From the start, the Iowa contest was framed by turmoil over the war in Iraq, starting with the debate in Congress over authorizing Bush to go to war and culminating late last week with reports that 12 members of the Iowa National Guard were injured in a mortar attack in northern Iraq. The anti-war sentiment, evident in visits to communities across Iowa this year, largely accounted for Dean's quick rise and solid base of support; it also has proven to be a continuing hurdle for Gephardt, one of the authors of the war resolution, and Kerry, who voted for it. (Edwards, who also voted for the resolution, has encountered less criticism for his position than either of those two men).

Although the discussion of the war no longer is as prevalent as it once was, its potential influence on the race was clear again with the attacks.

But Vilsack said that at this point in the campaign, what the candidates were saying could prove less decisive than what their campaigns were doing to prepare for Jan. 19.

"I think you're going to continue to see shots taken at Dr. Dean, but I think over the next couple of days, those shots will be less effective," Vilsack said. "You get to the point where people ... tune it out."

Information on the newspaper endorsements was provided by The Associated Press.

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