Iraq conflict creates huge partisan split across state

By Susan Gilmore
Seattle Times staff reporter

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A solid majority of Washington residents feel that the U.S. occupation of Iraq is going badly, but they still believe American troops should stay in that country as long as it takes to establish democracy, according to a new Seattle Times Washington poll.

They also feel that the effort in Iraq has not made the U.S. safer from terrorism.

By a much slimmer majority, the 400 state residents polled Dec. 6-8 by Elway Research of Seattle also disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the Iraq situation.

When it comes to Iraq, Washington residents are sharply polarized by gender, geography and partisan leanings.

Who was polled Men 49% Women 51% Democrats 34.75% Republicans 20.75% Independents 44.5% Western Washington 80% Eastern Washington 20%

"George Bush was played like a fiddle and we went to war," said Don Brabham, 51, who owns a computer business in Lakewood, Pierce County. While he opposed the U.S. decision to go to war with Iraq, he nonetheless believes that American troops should stay in the country to stabilize it.

"We're stuck," he said. "We're going to find it very difficult to get out. We've wiped out a nation, but Saddam (Hussein) still has his billions."

Despite such concerns, 46 percent of those polled still say going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do, compared to 40 percent who say it was wrong.

"I feel it needed to be done," said Janice Purdy, a farmer from Deer Park, Spokane County. "My son-in-law is from Egypt and things were intolerable with Saddam Hussein. It's a terrible thing to lose lives, but sometimes we have to do things unpleasant."

Overall, women view the conflict in Iraq and Bush's policies much more negatively than men. Western Washington residents, particularly those in King County, were distinctly negative in their assessment, while those in Eastern Washington generally say the situation is going well.

But the sharpest differences came by party affiliation.

The poll found 86 percent of Republicans say the efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq are going well, while only 20 percent of the Democrats agree. When asked if they approved or disapproved of the way Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, 92 percent of the Republicans approve while 73 percent of the Democrats disapprove.

"The most striking thing to me is how partisan the findings are," said pollster Stuart Elway. "Republicans and Democrats have diametrically opposite views, not only of whether the war is justified, but how the war is going on the ground and how long the U.S. should stay in Iraq."

To some extent, the Washington state poll mirrors national surveys.

Carroll Doherty, editor of the Pew Research Center, which studies public-policy attitudes, said most national polls show a nation increasingly polarized by the war, with more Democrats wanting to withdraw troops.

This, he said, is a big change and is steadily increasing, even though a majority say we should stay involved.

"The question is with the people in the middle, or some Republicans, to see if they start jumping ship," said Doherty. "We haven't seen any indication to any great extent so far."

A recent national Los Angeles Times poll found just over half — 51 percent — of Americans say they disapprove of the way Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, a huge drop from the 74 percent who said they approved last April.

However, a CNN / USA Today poll last weekend indicated that support for Bush's policies in Iraq may be growing again after the president's surprise Thanksgiving Day visit to Baghdad.

Elway said the conflict has sharply split Washington residents since well before it started, and it continues to do so now.

The state was evenly divided in polls taken in October 2002. Still, a Seattle Times poll taken in September 2002 found state residents supported a military strike against Saddam and Iraq, even though they believed it would increase the threat of terrorism against Americans at home and abroad.

The current poll found that 58 percent of residents think efforts to stabilize Iraq are going badly, while only 40 percent are optimistic about how it is going. Roughly half of those polled disapprove of the way Bush has overseen Iraq, compared to 45 percent who approve.

There is still solid support for remaining in Iraq.

The poll found 53 percent of Washington residents believe that troops should stay in Iraq as long as it takes to make sure Iraq is a stable democracy. Thirty-seven percent want to pull out as soon as possible.

Even among those who say the war was the wrong thing to do, one-third say the troops must stay.

Jerry Heston of Spokane is a moderate Republican. He thinks things aren't going well in Iraq, but he supports Bush and believes U.S. troops should stay to stabilize Iraq.

"This is a different kind of war with these terrorists," said Heston, 74, a retired dentist who fought in the Korean War. "It's very, very important that we stay. This war is almost more important than Korea and Vietnam because we had a direct attack on us. It would be a big mistake if we pulled out."

The gender split is pronounced. While 52 percent of the men surveyed say they approve of Bush's handling of Iraq, only 38 percent of the women agree. Some 63 percent of the women say things are going badly, compared to 52 percent of men.

Darla Morton, a real-estate agent from Seward Park, said going to war with Iraq was the wrong thing to do. "We went in there looking for weapons of mass destruction. Read my lips. Where are they?" she said.

But she, too, said that since the U.S. is in Iraq, it needs to stay and finish the job. "You can't just go in and poke it with a stick like a beehive and just leave," said Morton, 44, whose father served in the Korean War.

Even those from military families are divided on the Iraq question. The poll found 57 percent of those who have family or close friends now on active duty say the war is going badly.

In households where a family member has served in the military, more than half of those polled — 53 percent — say things aren't going well in Iraq, and 46 percent disapprove of the way Bush is handling things in that country.

And when asked whether the war has made the U.S. safer, or less safe, from terrorism, 43 percent say they feel less safe compared to 32 percent who feel safer.

That was far different from the Los Angeles Times national poll, where 57 percent said they feel more secure.

"I don't feel safer. It has the opposite affect," said Fred Green, 51, of Seattle.

Harry Frost of Lacey supports the president. He said he's not sure the war has made the country safer from terrorism, but said it has made it more aware.

"We thwarted a lot of things that could have happened," said Frost, 55, a state employee with a son in the Navy Reserves. "We're vulnerable. We can be attacked."

The poll also found:

• The Cascade Curtain is a strong dividing wall. While only 42 percent in Western Washington say the war is going well, 58 percent in Eastern Washington are optimistic about the direction of the Iraq conflict.

• Among Western Washington residents, 47 percent approve of Bush's actions, while 53 percent of those in Eastern Washington support the president's actions. The division was most striking in King County, where only 29 percent say the war is going well, 58 percent disapprove of Bush and 48 percent say the decision to go to war with Iraq was wrong.

• Far more people — 58 percent — say the war is going badly than disapprove of Bush's performance, 49 percent. Of those who say things are going badly, 17 percent approve of the way Bush is handling the situation. Elway said he assumes that many of those polled think the setbacks in Iraq are a temporary condition, that the cause is right and that Bush is doing a good job.

• Of those who say the war was the right thing to do, 72 percent say it's going well and 27 percent say it is going badly. And three-quarters of those people say the U.S. should stay in Iraq for the long haul.

• Of those who say the war is going badly, 62 percent say the U.S. is less safe because of it and 54 percent say U.S. troops should pull out soon.

• Of those who approve of Bush's strategy in Iraq, 76 percent say the war is going well; of those who disapprove, 90 percent say the war is going badly.

Susan Gilmore: 206-464-2054 or sgilmore@seattletimes.com

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