Dean gathers steam; others question odds of beating Bush

By Roddie A. Burris
Knight Ridder Newspapers

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As the clear poll leader in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary Jan. 27, and locked in a statistical dead heat with Rep. Dick Gephardt, D-Mo., in Iowa, where Democrats vote in caucuses Jan. 19, Dean hears that question increasingly, yet more from the media than from voters.

The former Vermont governor dismisses the question's very premise: "I'm probably the only Democratic candidate that can be elected in November."

Dean is moving fast to solidify his front-runner status. Enthusiastic crowds greet him at every stop. Both avid supporters and undecided voters are more likely to ask Dean about the war in Iraq, education, health care or the economy than whether he can win.

Nevertheless, Dean's ability to beat President Bush remains questionable to some who say he's too liberal, too inexperienced and too short-tempered, and many reputable political observers see a hard road ahead.

"Anybody could win," said Merle Black, political-science professor at Emory University. But "right now, with the economy improving as it is, if Howard Dean is the nominee, he'd have a very hard time winning any of the Southern states."

And if Dean loses the South, he would have to win 70 percent of the remaining Electoral College votes to win the presidency.

Republicans will portray Dean as a very liberal Democrat, Black said. They will cite his signing into law a Vermont bill legalizing gay civil unions; his intention to roll back all $3 trillion worth of Bush's tax cuts, including those such as the child-tax credit that benefit the middle class; and his recent declaration that he intends to "re-regulate" Corporate America. All that is a hard sell to much of the country, Black said.

People at Dean rallies voice no doubt.

"I never saw anything like this, and it's only the primaries," said Cindy Montgomery, a professor at George Washington University in Washington, D.C. She was speaking of the excitement Dean generates among true believers as she attended a raucous party celebrating Dean's 55th birthday this month at a D.C. restaurant.

"He's a decent man who can do a better job" as president, said Chris Foster of Germantown, Md. "That's all we want, and that's what we're going to get. He's not Moses come down from the mountaintop. He's a decent man."

Dean rolled to his lead for the Democratic presidential nomination by opposing the war in Iraq, but he steadily is adding layers to his relentless attack against Bush policies. Dean wants to overhaul Bush's "No Child Left Behind" education law, repeal his tax cuts entirely and extend health-care insurance to everyone.

He also is stacking up endorsements that should help him expand his initial base of upper-middle-class whites. In New Mexico recently, he won endorsements from the National Congress of American Indians and former Gov. Tony Anaya, a prominent Hispanic American.

Earlier, in Washington, he locked up two big unions and also had Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. of Illinois stand by his side as he won the symbolically important support of Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Md., chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus.

Dean insists he's going to compete for the South; he even campaigned last week in Bush's home state of Texas.

Texas Republicans say no Democrat can win the state.

"There's a lot of money in Texas to be donated to both political parties, so Dean had to come drag the bag," said Court Koenning, executive director of the Harris County Republican Party. But "he's gonna get his clock cleaned in the general election. I'll run around naked and you can call me Sally if Bush loses Texas."

While many analysts say that Dean's drive for his party's nomination may be unstoppable if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire in January, Dean says the nominee won't be determined until the March 2 Super Primary, when 10 states vote, including California, New York, Georgia and Ohio.

"The critical battleground in this election is going to be the state of Ohio," he said.

Meantime, Dean has a problem the eight other Democratic contenders wish they had — he is weighing whether to upgrade to a larger jet to accommodate the steadily growing corps of media clamoring to travel with him.

Copyright © 2003 The Seattle Times Company