Same-sex-marriage issue could aid Bush in Oregon

By Brad Cain
The Associated Press

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An Oregon group, the Defense of Marriage Coalition, is gathering signatures to try to get a ban on gay marriages on the state's November ballot.

When the organization began its campaign, state Republican Chairman Kevin Mannix jumped in with an offer of help.

Mannix is a vocal opponent of same-sex marriage. But he acknowledges he has another reason for wanting to see the issue on the Nov. 2 ballot: If it qualifies for a vote, the issue is expected to bring out lots of conservative voters, which could help Bush's chances.

"It could be a significant factor, because we think it will increase voter registration and voter turnout among moderate to conservative Oregonians," he said.

When he contacted the Defense of Marriage Coalition, Mannix offered the state GOP's mailing list of "motivated" Republican voters — people who vote in every election — to help the coalition's petition drive.

As it turns out, the coalition had already gotten the list and used it as part of its effort to send out 100,000 mailings statewide asking people to help gather signatures for the measure.

Coalition spokesman Tim Nashif said he is hopeful the coalition will be able to collect the 100,840 valid signatures it needs by the July 2 deadline to place the gay-marriage ban on the statewide ballot.

Nashif also said that while the gay-marriage issue could provide an indirect benefit to Bush's Oregon campaign, that's not why the Defense of Marriage Coalition launched its petition drive.

Multnomah County's decision in early March to begin issuing marriage licenses to gays and lesbians — a decision that's being challenged in the courts and is temporarily suspended — is driving the effort, Nashif said.

But the head of Basic Rights Oregon, the state's leading gay-rights group, says many proponents of the gay-marriage ban also see it as a way to help Bush win Oregon this fall. "It's a shame that this issue, which is so personal and so important to individuals, would be used by the Republicans as a campaign ploy to mobilize conservative voters," Roey Thorpe said.
 
Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts said Democrat John Kerry still has a slight lead over Bush in Oregon, where Democrat Al Gore defeated Bush by just a narrow margin of 6,700 votes in the 2000 presidential election.

Hibbitts said most voters rate issues such as the Iraq war and the economy as more important than gay marriage. Still, in a close race, an issue that brings out more conservative voters could help Bush, Hibbitts said.

"Potentially, it might help energize the conservative base," he said. "It might create some more campaign foot walkers and door knockers. Some people might say, 'Now I'm sure I will vote.' "

Hibbitts also said his polling shows that most Oregonians oppose same-sex marriages.

One Hibbitts survey, taken after Multnomah County's surprise decision to allow such weddings, found that 54 percent do not think same-sex marriages should be legal. Thirty-five percent said the weddings should be legal, and 11 percent were unsure.

A spokeswoman for the Bush-Cheney campaign in Washington, Tracey Schmitt, said there's no official connection between the campaign against gay marriage campaign and the president's re-election organization.

But she also said she thinks Bush's consistency on the gay-marriage issue — he supports a federal constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage nationally — wins him support from a lot of Oregon voters.

Kerry campaign spokeswoman Lisa Sohn said , however, she doubts Bush would get much of a boost from a gay-rights ban on Oregon's general-election ballot.