CMA predictions from a year of big hits

Country music is in the midst of a surge it hasn't seen since Garth Brooks shamelessly drove the listening world down Thunder Road.

Not surprisingly, the Garth Man is back in the fold, ending — or at least interrupting — his self-imposed retirement to raise his daughters, with the hit single "More Than a Memory." It's one of four new songs on a CD/DVD box set that coincidentally (nudge-nudge, wink-wink) comes out just in time for the holiday shopping season.

But this time, Garth is riding the coattails of a year that has seen country music as the brightest spot in the music industry, the one genre on the upswing. And the reason for that upswing is the popularity of country concert tours.

Tim and Faith, Kenny, Keith, Brad, Toby. You don't need last names to know who they are, and their tours played to bank-vault-busting crowds all over the United States.

Tonight, the Country Music Association honors those who are responsible for the surge. Here are our predictions.

Entertainer of the Year

Nominees: Kenny Chesney, Brad Paisley, Rascal Flatts, George Strait, Keith Urban.

Winner: Chesney.

Why: His shows should be sponsored by WD-40, they're so slick. Any of the other nominees is better musically; only Rascal Flatts comes close in theatricality.

Female Vocalist of the Year

Nominees: Alison Krauss, Miranda Lambert, Martina McBride, Reba McEntire, Carrie Underwood.

Winner: Ladies and gentleman, your American Idol, Carrie Underwood.

Why: Underwood doesn't have the stage presence of Krauss, McBride or McEntire, or the sass of Lambert. What she does have is the only voice ever found on "American Idol" that was worth the search.

Male Vocalist of the Year

Nominees: Kenny Chesney, Brad Paisley, George Strait, Josh Turner, Keith Urban.

Winner: Paisley.

Why: The guy has learned to use his guitar chops to accent his vocals ... and he writes the best songs in country music. Besides, two of the best male voices — Ronnie Dunn and Gary LeVox — are part of groups, so they're not eligible, which hardly seems fair.

Horizon Award

Nominees: Jason Aldean, Rodney Atkins, Little Big Town, Kellie Pickler, Taylor Swift.

Winner: Atkins.

Why: We're the gang he calls "my people." His only real competition — Taylor Swift — will win everything else next year.

Vocal Group of the Year

Nominees: Alison Krauss and Union Station featuring Jerry Douglas, Dixie Chicks, Emerson Drive, Little Big Town, Rascal Flatts.

Winner: Rascal Flatts.

Why: Even if Nashville were ready to make nice with the Chicks (sorry, Natalie), they wouldn't win. Gary LeVox has finally learned to sustain that wonderfully emotive nasal tenor for a whole show.

Vocal Duo of the Year

Nominees: Big & Rich, Brooks & Dunn, Montgomery Gentry, Sugarland, The Wreckers.

Winner: Brooks & Dunn.

Why: Tradition. By rights, this should go to Jennifer Nettles and Kristian Bush of Sugarland.

Single of the Year

Nominees (award goes to artist and producer): "Anyway," sung and produced by Martina McBride; "Before He Cheats," Carrie Underwood, produced by Mark Bright; "Lost in This Moment," Big & Rich, produced by Big Kenny Alphin and John Rich; "Ticks," Brad Paisley, produced by Frank Rogers and Chris DuBois; "Wrapped," George Strait, produced by Strait and Tony Brown.

Winner: "Before He Cheats."

Why: Anyone who votes otherwise risks a Louisville Slugger taken to both headlights. It is the best venom song since "Fist City" by Loretta Lynn.

Album of the Year

Nominees (award goes to artist and producer): "5th Gear," Brad Paisley, produced by Frank Rogers and Chris DuBois; "It Just Comes Natural," George Strait, produced by Strait and Tony Brown; "Long Trip Alone," Dierks Bentley, produced by Brett Beavers; "Love, Pain & the Whole Crazy Thing," Keith Urban, produced by Urban and Dann Huff; "These Days," Vince Gill, produced by Gill, John Hobbs and Justin Niebank.

Winner: "5th Gear."

Why: There's not a bad song on it. As a matter of fact, it's the best country album since ... "Mud on the Tires," Paisley's previous effort.

Song of the Year

Nominees (award goes to songwriter and publisher): "Anyway," written by Martina McBride, Brad Warren and Brett Warren, published by Delemmava Music and Bucky and Clyde Music; "Before He Cheats," written by Josh Kear and Chris Tompkins, published by That Little House Music, Big Yellow Dog Music/Sony and ATV Cross Keys; "Give It Away," written by Bill Anderson, Buddy Cannon and Jamey Johnson, published by Sony, ATV Tree, Mr. Bubba Music, Slow Run Music and EMI Blackwood; "Lost In This Moment," written by John Rich, Keith Anderson and Rodney Clawson, published by Rich Texan Music, Warner-Tamerlane, Writer's Extreme, EMI April Music and Romeo Cowboy; "Stupid Boy," written by Dave Berg, Deanna Bryant and Sarah Buxton, published by Song Planet, That Little House Music, Cal IV Songs and BergBrain Music.

Winner: "Before He Cheats."

Why: You gotta love a song that has a line about someone "dabbing on $3 worth of that bathroom Polo."

Musical Event of the Year

Nominees (award to each artist): Reba McEntire with Kelly Clarkson, "Because of You"; Tracy Lawrence, featuring Tim McGraw and Kenny Chesney, "Find Out Who Your Friends Are"; Jimmy Buffett with George Strait and Alan Jackson, "Hey, Good Lookin' " (live version); Alison Krauss with John Waite, "Missing You"; Vince Gill with Alison Krauss, "The Reason Why."

Winner and why: Wins to the left, wins to the right. Wins to Jimmy Buffett and pals. Of course, the real travesty is that the true vocal event of the year, Tim McGraw singing the painfully poignant "If You're Reading This," isn't even nominated. Gee, ya think that might be because it happened on the rival Academy of Country Music Awards show?

Music Video of the Year

Nominees (award goes to artist and director): "Anyway," Martina McBride, directed by Robert Deaton and George J. Flanigen IV; "Before He Cheats," Carrie Underwood, directed by Roman White; "Moments," Emerson Drive, directed by Steven Goldmann; "Online," Brad Paisley, directed by Jason Alexander; "You Save Me," Kenny Chesney, directed by Shaun Silva.

Winner: "Online."

Why: Videos are always so much cooler online, and a lot of people have watched this one that way, courtesy of CMT and Great American Country. Alexander's skills, honed in years on "Seinfeld," pair perfectly with Paisley's writing and his surprising gift for comic timing. And hey, it's got Marcia, Marcia, Marcia!

Musician of the Year

Nominees : Eddie Bayers Jr., drums; Jerry Douglas, dobro; Dann Huff, guitar; Mac McAnally, guitar; Randy Scruggs, guitar.

Winner and why: We drummers lose out again. Dann Huff adds another award to his trophy case.