"Slumdog" likely to be top dog at Academy Awards

Join us this Sunday at 4:30 p.m. for live coverage of the 81st Annual Academy Awards on our Popcorn & Prejudice movie blog.

Or is it?

In 2004, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" was nominated for 11 Oscars and, to no one's surprise, won them all. It was the final film of a beloved trilogy — a big-budget, special-effects-crammed blockbuster.

This year's favored movie couldn't be more different: "Slumdog Millionaire," directed by Danny Boyle, is a rags-to-riches tale of a young man from the Mumbai slums. It was made on little money, features no movie stars (at least, none recognizable to most American audiences) and narrowly escaped a straight-to-DVD release.

And yet, "Slumdog" has been sweeping practically every award imaginable: the BAFTAs, the Golden Globes, the Directors Guild of America, the Writers Guild of America, even the Screen Actors Guild (for its ensemble cast). Why? Well, look around you: Times are tough, and everyone's looking for something to put a little spring in their step.

In competition with a Holocaust movie, a fairy tale about old age and death, and two dramas about dead politicians, "Slumdog" is the only best-picture nominee that could be remotely described as a feel-good movie. Though it has its moments of darkness, its merry Bollywood song-and-dance ending leaves audiences happy.

So, even though "The Curious Tale of Benjamin Button" has more nominations (13 vs. 10), I'm expecting a "Slumdog" sweep on Oscar night. Here's the rundown on the major awards:

Best picture

Well, we know the Academy has a lot of older voters and they might be swayed by the considerable charms and gentle end-of-life messages of "The Curious Tale of Benjamin Button." And we know Harvey Weinstein, executive producer of "The Reader," is notorious for conducting effective (some might say cutthroat) Oscar campaigns. But still, it'll be a huge upset if "Slumdog Millionaire" doesn't win. "Milk" and "Frost/Nixon"? Worthy films, but no best-picture buzz. Perhaps they can buy each other a drink.

Prediction: "Slumdog Millionaire"

My vote: "Milk"

Wish you were here: "The Dark Knight"

Best director

This category doesn't always match up with best picture (in 2006, "Crash" took best picture but Ang Lee won the directing award for "Brokeback Mountain"), but this year it most likely will. Danny Boyle is a likable Brit who's been on the radar since his 1996 "Trainspotting"; this is his first nomination and surely his first win. Ron Howard, who's won before (in 2002 for "A Beautiful Mind"), could surprise with "Frost/Nixon," as could Stephen Daldry, who's 3-for-3 in lifetime nominations (he's made three films — "Billy Eliot," "The House" and this year's "The Reader" — and been nominated each time). Grumbles about the length of "Benjamin Button" make a David Fincher nod unlikely; Gus Van Sant, for "Milk," has an outside chance at best.

Prediction: Danny Boyle

My vote: Gus Van Sant

Wish you were here: Sam Mendes, "Revolutionary Road"

Best actor

If Mickey Rourke wins for "The Wrestler," expect a speech both moving and entertaining. (At the BAFTAs, he thanked co-star Marisa Tomei for taking her clothes off.) Oscar loves a comeback story, so Rourke's a front-runner here, just ahead of five-time nominee Sean Penn, whose remarkable turn in "Milk" won him universal praise and a SAG award. A couple of veteran actors but first-time nominees may cancel each other out: 61-year-old Richard Jenkins, for "The Visitor," and 71-year old Frank Langella, for "Frost/Nixon." Brad Pitt, whose "Benjamin Button" performance involved much computer wizardry (perhaps distracting from his acting achievement), is least likely.

Prediction: Mickey Rourke

My vote: Sean Penn

Wish you were here: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road"

Best actress

The war criminal or the nun? Oscar veterans Kate Winslet ("The Reader") and Meryl Streep ("Doubt") seem most likely to succeed here. Winslet, who's never won, is the favorite; then again, the Greatest Living Film Actress hasn't won since 1983 ("Sophie's Choice") and would appear to be overdue. (Streep also won the SAG, an often accurate but not infallible Oscar predictor.) Anne Hathaway, with her nuanced work in "Rachel Getting Married," could surprise here. Melissa Leo is brilliant in "Frozen River," but it's unlikely that enough voters will have seen the film. Angelina Jolie, whose nomination for "Changeling" seems an apology for ignoring her in "A Mighty Heart" last year, will stay in her seat.

Prediction: Kate Winslet

My vote: Melissa Leo

Wish you were here: Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky"

Best supporting actor

No question: Heath Ledger will win. Everyone else in this category is terrific — Josh Brolin in "Milk," Robert Downey Jr. in "Tropic Thunder," Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Doubt," Michael Shannon in "Revolutionary Road." But all sentiment aside, watch any two minutes of Ledger's jittery, unhinged "Joker" in "The Dark Knight" and just try to disagree.

Prediction: Heath Ledger

My vote: Ledger

Wish you were here: Michael Sheen, "Frost/Nixon"

Best supporting actress

Hmm. Comedic performances have been known to win this category (i.e. Catherine Zeta-Jones in "Chicago," Marisa Tomei in "My Cousin Vinny," Mira Sorvino in "Mighty Aphrodite"), so Penélope Cruz, so gorgeously wacko in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," might have the edge here. Her chief competition is Viola Davis, whose powerhouse performance stops "Doubt" in its tracks. (She's only on screen for about 12 minutes, but that didn't hurt Judi Dench, who won this category for her brief appearance in "Shakespeare in Love.") Tomei is a possibility for "The Wrestler," as is Taraji P. Henson for her wonderfully sweet work in "Benjamin Button." The talented Amy Adams, nominated for a nonshowy role in "Doubt," seems least likely.

Prediction: Penélope Cruz

My vote: Viola Davis

Wish you were here: Debra Winger, "Rachel Getting Married"

Elsewhere, I'm guessing (and hoping) that "Man on Wire" will take best documentary; "Slumdog Millionaire" and "Milk" will win the writing awards; "The Duchess" will take the costume prize; and Mickey Rourke will wear something a little odd.

It all happens Sunday; see you then.

Moira Macdonald: 206-464-2725 or mmacdonald@seattletimes.com