Ah, yes, Academy Awards night — a celebration of lavish gowns, questionable accessorizing, stammering speechifying and movies nobody saw.

I speak affectionately, of course, as one who loves every minute of the Oscars, particularly the bad fashion choices. But this year, many viewers may be tuning in for the gowns alone and scratching their heads in puzzlement as the movies are mentioned. Of the five best-picture nominees, not one is a blockbuster (like "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" last year), and most have made barely a dent at the box office.

An Associated Press story last week noted that this year's nominees have been seen by fewer moviegoers than any best-picture slate in the past 20 years. When the nominations were announced in late January, the five best-picture nominees — "The Aviator," "Finding Neverland," "Million Dollar Baby," "Ray" and "Sideways" — had grossed just over $200 million, collectively, and since then have made only modest gains. Last year's five candidates, at the time of nomination, had earned more than three times that.

Box office isn't everything, and it's refreshing to see the academy supporting smaller films. But it does put a lot of pressure on host Chris Rock, telecast producer Gil Cates and all those stylists hoping to put Cate Blanchett into a dress that everyone will remember the next morning. Cates has already announced several innovations that sound dreadful — announcing some awards from the audience, or assembling nominees on stage to announce the winner in front of them all — and that carry a certain whiff of desperation. (Next thing you know, they'll be talking about dance numbers ... )

Movie-wise, the big question this year is whether "The Aviator" will fly above "Million Dollar Baby" — but will most viewers even care? For those who do, here's a look at the competition Sunday in the top categories, with my predictions, preferences and salutes to those who should have been included.

And it comes with a warning label: Use these predictions at your own risk. Last year, if I modestly may say so, I accurately predicted nearly every category (as, no doubt, did many of you — thank you, Peter Jackson). But the gift of Oscar clairvoyance can disappear as quickly as a losing movie vanishes from theaters, and this year feels unusually tough to call. Nonetheless, here goes ...

MIRAMAX FILMS For best picture: Martin Scorsese's "The Aviator," starring Leonardo DiCaprio as Howard Hughes. It's a period piece with elegant production values.

Best picture

No question: It's "Million Dollar Baby" vs. "The Aviator," and it's really way too close to call. "The Aviator" just feels more like a best-picture winner to me — it's a period piece with the kind of elegant production values and epic sweep that many Oscar-winning films have. But "Million Dollar Baby," despite an ongoing (though perhaps overemphasized in the media) controversy over its subject matter, packs a stronger emotional wallop. The other films in the category feel like longshots: "Sideways" is too indie, "Finding Neverland" too gentle, "Ray" too uneven.

Prediction: "The Aviator"

My vote: "Sideways"

Wish you were here: "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"

Best director

OK, here's the heartbreak scenario. Say there's a best director/best picture split, which happens now and again (four times in the past 15 years, to be precise). Say the academy gives best picture to "The Aviator," for the reasons stated above.

And then suppose they give best director to Clint Eastwood, for "Million Dollar Baby," in order to spread around the top honors in a very competitive year. That means that Martin Scorsese, perhaps the finest American filmmaker of his generation, would have seven Academy Award nominations and no wins. (Eastwood has won this category before, for "Unforgiven" in 1993.) Heartbreak, I know, but it just might happen.

As above, it's a two-man race; though if I had to pick a dark horse, it'd be the brilliant Mike Leigh, for "Vera Drake."

Prediction: Eastwood

My vote: Leigh

Wish you were here: Andrey Zvyagintsev, "The Return"

Best actor — leading

Early buzz has Jamie Foxx's name practically engraved on that statuette, and it's hard to argue that he won't be honored for his uncanny portrayal of the late Ray Charles in "Ray." It's a performance that has all the usual earmarks of Oscar glory — a physical transformation, a tribute to a beloved icon, a sudden breakthrough star — and a Foxx win seems like the night's safest bet.

A possible upset could come in the form of Eastwood, who may never again have a role as meaty (or a performance as soulful) as Frankie Dunn in "Million Dollar Baby." And keep an eye on Don Cheadle, who's greatly respected in Hollywood (he should have been nominated 10 years ago, for "Devil in a Blue Dress") and might surprise.

The always-splendid Johnny Depp has perhaps too quiet a role in "Finding Neverland," and while Leonardo DiCaprio does fine work in "The Aviator," it doesn't appear to be his year.

Prediction: Foxx

My vote: Foxx

Wish you were here: Paul Giamatti, "Sideways"

ALEX DUKAY / SONY PICTURES CLASSICS For best actress: Annette Bening, shown here as Julia Lambert in "Being Julia," is up against Hilary Swank again.

Best actress — leading

Yes, it's 2000 all over again. That year, a fresh-faced 25-year-old named Hilary Swank was the surprise winner over beloved veteran Annette Bening. (Only in Hollywood are women in their early 40s known as "veterans.") Now they're back for a rematch, and both are in fine form: Swank is heartbreaking as a waitress-with-a-dream in "Million Dollar Baby"; Bening a sly virtuoso as a self-absorbed actress in '30s London in "Being Julia."

It's a hard one to call, but I think they'll go with Bening this year, in a reversal of 2000. Then again, Swank does have the Waitress Factor in her favor.

Kate Winslet, a four-time nominee (and she's not even 30 yet!) would be most likely to break the tie, though Oscar voters may well be puzzled by her film, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind." Imelda Staunton is brilliant in "Vera Drake" and could contend if enough voters see her film. For luminous newcomer Catalina Sandino Moreno ("Maria Full of Grace"), the honor's in the nomination — there's always next year.

Prediction: Bening (Or maybe Swank. Oh, I don't know)

My vote: Staunton

Wish you were here: Sandrine Bonnaire, "Intimate Strangers"

MERIE W. WALLACE For best supporting actor: Morgan Freeman in "Million Dollar Baby" is the obvious choice. He's a respected four-time nominee who's never won an Oscar.

Best actor — supporting

The obvious choice here is Morgan Freeman, the noble voice of "Million Dollar Baby" and a respected, beloved four-time nominee who's never won an Oscar. Expect a standing ovation if he wins — but if he doesn't, you just might hear the surprised voice of Thomas Haden Church, who gave heart to a loutish character who could have been a caricature in "Sideways." (Oscar loves a success story: Church, like his character, was somewhat washed up in his acting career before "Sideways" came along.)

Alan Alda is popular in Hollywood, but his role in "The Aviator" is less pivotal to the film; Jamie Foxx ("Collateral") is likely to be honored elsewhere. The dark horse is first-time nominee Clive Owen, who's wickedly good in "Closer" and has won several awards for the role.

Prediction: Freeman

My vote: Freeman

Wish you were here: Topher Grace, "In Good Company"

Best actress — supporting

It's impossible to watch "Sideways" without falling a little bit in love with Virginia Madsen's dreamy Maya, and Oscar voters just might go with their hearts in this category. Or they might look to a very different kind of performance: Cate Blanchett's cool, spot-on Katharine Hepburn in "The Aviator," or Sophie Okonedo's wrenching survivor in the genocide drama "Hotel Rwanda." And this is a category that often rewards very young performers, such as Natalie Portman, who did some of her career's best work in "Closer." Laura Linney is certainly deserving, but there's little support for "Kinsey." I'm thinking Madsen, with Blanchett striding close behind.

Prediction: Madsen

My vote: Madsen

Wish you were here: Meryl Streep, "The Manchurian Candidate" (or "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events")

Elsewhere, look for "Sideways" to pick up the adapted screenplay award, and most likely "The Aviator" for original screenplay. Scorsese's film should also do well in the design and technical categories, though few expect it to pull a "Return of the King"-style sweep.

The biggest question is: Will Jamie Foxx's speech be as good as his Golden Globes speech? Tune in and see — and enjoy the silliness that is Oscar night.

Moira Macdonald: 206-464-2725 or mmacdonald@seattletimes.com