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Geoff Baker covers the Mariners for The Seattle Times. He provides daily coverage of the team throughout spring training, and during the season.

May 7, 2010 at 11:29 AM

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How historically bad has M's offense been? Looks to be the worst in franchise history so far

Posted by Geoff Baker

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Yeah, we're running out of material already. But many of you keep asking me whether the Mariners have ever been this bad offensively for so long to begin a season.

The answer is, yes. At least in the season's opening month. Remember, we are already a week into the new month. More on that in a minute. And it's not good news, believe me.

But for opening March/April stints, the only Seattle team worse than the 2010 Mariners was the 1986 group.

That bunch of Mariners posted an OPS+ of 76, compared to this team's 78.

For those unfamilliar with the stat, OPS+ is on-base-plus-slugging percentage in relation to how the rest of the teams in your league are doing in a given year. The base point is 100, so any number above that is the percentage above average that your team is while anything below that is below average.

So, the 2010 Mariners are 22 percent below the average in regards to the teams around them in their league.

In 1986, they were 24 percent below. By the way, this year's M's are tied with the 1978 club, which also scored 78, for second-worst in franchise history.

I like to use OPS+ for this measurement because, as you know, offense has increased throughout the game over the past two decades. Just as we don't compare home run totals of today to what they were in the Dead Ball era, we have to make comparisons that are meaningful.

The actual OPS of the 1986 team was .622, the 1978 team's was .624, while this year's is .653.

But like I said, it's all relative. And the M's right now relatively stink.

And it gets a whole lot worse once you move beyond April.

That's because the M's, in the month of May, have an OPS+ of...are you ready for it...33. Yes, I said 33!

They are 67 percent below average OPS-wise, with the rest of the American League. That crew from 1986? (Which lost 95 games, I should mention.) They put up an OPS+ of 106 in April. In other words, they were 6 percent above the league average.

The 1978 team put up 104 in May, 4 percent above league average.

By comparison, the 2010 group is like a plane that had been flying on one engine in April, but which is now down to half a fuselage with the pilots already ejected and parachuting towards the ocean.

The actual May OPS of the M's is only .486.

You start to think about releasing players when their OPS drops below .650. Below .600? The player is on life support. Below .500? No player can stay in the majors for more than a few days with a number that bad.

But an entire lineup going .486?

Well, no team can expect to win a game with an offense that bad. And in May, the Mariners are...winless!

Going back a full 28 days, the Mariners have an OPS+ of only 73, easily making them the worst offensive club in franchise history this deep into a season. Thanks to the Baseball Reference website for making these numbers easy to look up in 90 minutes or fewer.

Again, this is piling on. Yes, we know this club has been bad at the plate. But it has never been this bad before. In fact, this team is pretty fortunate to only be 11-17 as a result of some outstanding mound work. But it's not enough. No team can win with an OPS+ of 33 that holds steady for a week. Or, with an OPS+ of 50 for the past two weeks.

I'd wager that no team in baseball history has ever put up an OPS+ that poor in any given month. If they did, they would likely go 0-30.

That is why we keep writing that something major has to change for this offense or the season will be done before the M's know what hit them. Keep playing like this, the team could theoretically double this current six game losing streak without batting an eyelash.

Somehow, someway, it has to turn around in a big hurry. Nothing else for me to say. This says it all.

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