The numbers say Ken Griffey Jr. should avoid left field and left-handers

Nostalgia, warmth and excitement are expected to grip Mariners fans when Ken Griffey Jr. steps into the batter's box Monday night after nine years in someone else's uniform.

But remove those sentiments from the equation, and what do the Mariners truly have wearing old number 24? Going beyond emotion where Griffey is concerned will be a challenge for fans who haven't forgotten his home-plate slide in 1995 or his wall-crashing leaps for balls in center field.

It should, however, have been a little easier for the statistics-savvy regime of new general manager Jack Zduriencik to stay impartial. A hallmark of the Zduriencik era is reputed to be an ability to crunch data and come up with results other teams might not see. And some of the creators of the analytical stats systems the Mariners often look at to help in their decisions say Griffey should do fine as long as he avoids left field and southpaw pitchers.

"He certainly has some value as a designated hitter against right-handed pitching," said Mitchel Lichtman, a former St. Louis Cardinals consultant who created the Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) defensive statistic.

Griffey hit .272 with 14 homers and 48 runs batted in along with an .841 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) against right-handers last season. Conversely, he hit only .202 with four homers and 23 RBI and posted a paltry .649 OPS facing left-handers.

In fact, the numbers haven't changed much over the past three years.

Griffey hit .284 with an .886 OPS versus righties, but only .216 with a .689 OPS against left-handers.

Lichtman said he feels there is nothing at all wrong with Griffey facing primarily right-handers, who start roughly three-quarters of all games. But he warns there will be big problems if the Mariners allow Griffey to do too much of something else.

"He should never, ever set foot in the outfield," Lichtman said. "But that's been true for the last five years."

Lichtman's UZR metric showed there were 35 right fielders who played at least 700 innings at the position last season and Griffey ranked 32nd. Griffey also spent 252 innings in center and ranked 32nd out of the 50 players at his position who played at least 700 innings.

"If he's playing in the field, he's absolutely worthless," Litchman said, adding that his system shows Griffey gives away 15 to 20 runs per year more than the average corner outfielder. "He'd have to be the Griffey of the 1990s to make up for it with his hitting."

That's a sentiment shared by John Dewan, owner of Baseball Info Solutions, a company selling stats research to teams, and creator of a new Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric for his new book, "The Fielding Bible Vol. II." According to Dewan's book, using DRS to measure, Griffey as a right fielder was once again — as he was in the UZR metric — 32nd best of the 35 players who saw the most action at his position.

Dewan's stat judges outfielders on things like throwing and range.

Throwing, Griffey rated an above-average 15th as a right fielder, allowing opponents to take an extra base 38 times in 83 opportunities. Range-wise, he was below average on all balls hit his way, no matter what depth.

As a center fielder, Griffey scored well on balls hit medium-depth, but was again well below average on anything shallow or deep.

"I mean, his arm is OK, but, he plays like a robot," Dewan said. "He just can't move. He's very stiff out in the field. He'll make the routine plays like most outfielders will, but he just can't get to anything anymore."

In fairness to Griffey, he has played left field only a handful of times his entire career and these metrics are for right field and center. It should also be noted that the newer defensive metrics — while generally superior to traditional ones like errors and fielding percentage in measuring talent — are not yet as accurate as their offensive counterparts.

Still, playing poorly in right field doesn't bode well for playing in a spacious left field at Safeco Field. And the margin for error on these stats is also thought to diminish as multiple years of research is looked at.

While some of Griffey's poor numbers last year can be attributed to knee problems, Dewan's system still had him ranked 31st of the 35 primary right fielders from 2006 through 2008 combined.

Dave Cameron, who runs the stats-oriented USS Mariner fan blog locally and also does freelance stats analysis in sports for The Wall Street Journal, agrees with the defensive criticism but says there are still reason fans could see good returns.

"The key is, we know he can hit right-handed pitchers," Cameron said. "There's something in there. His platoon splits are huge, so there's got to be something there. If you're trying to give him 85 percent of his at-bats against right-handed pitchers, he could actually hit for a .290 average, maybe .340 on-base percentage and maybe .480, or even .500 slugging."

That would give Griffey up to an .840 OPS for the season, a vast improvement over the .612 put up by DH Jose Vidro last year. But Cameron cautioned those numbers will drop the more Griffey faces left-handers.

"If it goes to a 70/30 split, righties and lefties, then you're looking at maybe him hitting .270, .320 [on-base] and .460 [slugging]," he said. "And it keeps going down from there the more the splits get closer."

In other words, avoid "left" at all costs — be it pitchers or the outfield — and things might work out just fine.

Geoff Baker: 206-464-8286 or gbaker@seattletimes.com.