Bet on a free-agent spending slump at baseball's winter meetings in Las Vegas

Can there be a better way to test the financial restraint of an industry than to lock its top executives in a hotel in Las Vegas?

Against the backdrop of a nationwide economic malaise, in the garish Bellagio Resort and Casino, baseball this week holds its annual winter meetings, beginning Monday.

It's an event that just more than a decade ago was the scene of such outlandish spending sprees that Major League Baseball shut down the winter meetings for six years in an attempt to curtail the free-agent orgy.

It didn't work. Owners continued to shell out the big bucks, and finally, in 1998, commissioner Bud Selig decided that the spectacle of general managers, agents and media under one roof for one week was not such a bad thing.

The winter meetings returned, and the runaway spending continued unabated, peaking in Dallas in 2000 when almost $740 million was spent on 25 free agents — including $170 million by the Rockies for two pitchers (Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle — oops) and $250 million on one Alex Rodriguez.

If ever an industry seemed recession-proof, it was baseball. Despite agent Scott Boras' staunch claim that the sport is thriving, MLB executives say they, too, are feeling the heat of what now is officially a one-year-old recession.

The effect could start to manifest itself by what happens — or doesn't happen — this week. While the upper-tier free agents — especially the Big Three of Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and Manny Ramirez — will get their money, to obscene proportions, the riches might not trickle down quite as robustly to the more mundane of the 171 free agents on the market this winter.

Or, at least, agents are bracing to hear that refrain.

"They [owners] will use any tactic they can, but relatively speaking, we still have a very healthy industry," said Seattle-based agent Joe Urbon, who is now affiliated with the prestigious Creative Artists firm, which represents Derek Jeter, Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay and others, including Urbon clients Grady Sizemore and Jason Bay.

"I don't think not fulfilling a few signage sponsorships or commercial spots is going to keep you from filling the needs you have on your 25- or 40-man roster," Urbon said. "But it's a good excuse."

However, owners insist that they aren't posturing; they are feeling the heat like every other facet of the economy.

"The economy is going to have a big effect [on the offseason]," Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi told reporters last week. "I think there are a lot of teams that are looking around and saying, 'How does this affect us in what we can and can't do?' "

As often happens, the free-agent market seems paralyzed while waiting for the big guns to sign. There have been a handful of signings — such as Russell Branyan by the Mariners, and a trio (Edgar Renteria, Bobby Howry and Jeremy Affeldt) by the Giants. But for the most part, teams and agents appear to be waiting for the market to be set — an especially dicey proposition this year in such a volatile economic climate.

"There's always that 'Let's wait' domino effect; the big guys sign, and everything falls into place," Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik said. "But I think if you have a move out there that will help your club, you have to make that move."

That free-agent stall, coupled with the depressed economy, could nudge the trade market into prominence in Vegas. With teams perhaps reluctant to spend to fill their holes, they might try to do so through wheeling and dealing. That emphasis is what once gave the winter meetings their charm, back when former White Sox owner Bill Veeck would set up a card table in the lobby to broker trades, and free agency was a mere twinkle in Marvin Miller's eyes.

Former Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy, who has been dangled all winter by the budget-cutting Padres, could well be dealt at the Bellagio. Peavy is guaranteed $63 million over the next four years. The Cubs might be the best fit; if Peavy winds up in Chicago, it could lead to the trading of Rich Harden or Jason Marquis.

Another high-end pitcher that might be available — for a high price — is Kansas City's Zack Greinke. Club officials are already worrying about their ability to afford Greinke when he reaches free agency after 2010.

At an appearance last week, Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire named his likely 2009 outfield as Denard Span, Carlos Gomez and Michael Cuddyer, increasing speculation that former No. 1 overall draft pick Delmon Young could be traded for the second straight winter. The Twins also have a surplus of young pitchers they could deal in an attempt to upgrade the three-quarters of their infield not named Justin Morneau. The Twins have long coveted Mariners third baseman Adrian Beltre, so there might be a fit.

The Brewers, coming off a playoff run, might be willing to listen to offers for center fielder Mike Cameron, shortstop J.J. Hardy and even first baseman Prince Fielder — especially if Sabathia accepts their $100 million offer.

Mike Lowell, who helped Boston win the 2007 World Series but had a partially torn labrum in his right hip last year, could be dealt if the Red Sox wind up with Teixeira (and Red Sox insiders say they're poised to make a strong run at the first baseman). That would mean Kevin Youkilis moving to third, making Lowell (owed $24 million over the next two years) expendable.

Others who could be on the trade block include Jermaine Dye by the White Sox (another team that seems to be aggressively trimming its budget), Brian Roberts (perpetually linked to the Cubs), Ty Wigginton, Jose Valverde, Willy Taveras, Garrett Atkins, Adam Kennedy, Edwin Encarnacion, Homer Bailey, Freddy Sanchez, Adam LaRoche, Julio Lugo, Edwin Jackson, Mark Teahen, Billy Butler and Bobby Crosby.

That's not to say there will be a frenzy of deals this week. Increasingly, general managers work on their own timetables, and trades that are discussed in Vegas might not get consummated in Vegas.

One factor that has slowed down trading in recent years is that the deadline for teams to tender contracts to their players occurs after the winter meetings. It has been moved up from Dec. 20 to Dec. 12, but many teams still prefer to wait until they see what new pool of players might emerge before finalizing any acquisitions.

Other free agents still on the market include pitchers Sabathia, A.J. Burnett (who appears to be narrowing in on the Braves), Derek Lowe (heavily pursued by the Yankees), Ben Sheets, Francisco Rodriguez (who isn't finding much action for the multiyear deal he seeks), Randy Johnson, Jon Garland (who might accept the Angels' arbitration offer and remain in Anaheim), Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes and Trevor Hoffman.

Position players include Ramirez, Teixeira, Jason Varitek, Pudge Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Nomar Garciaparra, Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal, Joe Crede, Garret Anderson, Milton Bradley, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez, Rocco Baldelli, Jim Edmonds, Bobby Abreu, Casey Blake and Ken Griffey Jr.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com