Unquestionable disappointment

Just two months ago today, the Mariners began their 2008 season with hopes of contending for a division title. Today, all they are contending for is the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft, which is automatically awarded to the worst team in the major leagues.

Despite winning two in a row and playing better baseball this week, the Mariners remain 14 games under .500, with a record of 20-34. They have been all but eliminated from serious playoff consideration before the month of June.

While it is fashionable to call for the firings of manager John McLaren and general manager Bill Bavasi, there are myriad reasons for what has happened. Bavasi and McLaren may yet walk the plank. But even if they do, many of the problems that placed them in jeopardy in the first place will still be there.

The strategy of "going for it" this year, by trading five players to the Baltimore Orioles for starting pitcher Erik Bedard, always carried a risk.

But never in their wildest dreams, nor those of the trade's detractors, did Bavasi and company figure the Mariners would be a last-place club, 11 ½ games behind the American League West-leading Los Angeles Angels.

Where did it all go so wrong? Heading into the season, The Seattle Times baseball preview section singled out 10 crucial questions the team would need to answer as the season moved forward. Looking back on those questions now, it's clear the team has fallen well short in most.

Are the Mariners good enough to win

the AL West?

In theory. But in real life, they've been manhandled by the Texas Rangers, a team most picked to finish last. They've played the Angels to a standstill. But against some of the better-hitting clubs in the league, such as the Tigers and Yankees, the M's went 0-9 when the season still mattered.

The starting pitchers who were supposed to carry the Mariners took the month of May off. The Mariners preached all spring about the need to get runners home from third with fewer than two outs. Seattle failed to get that done in spring training and the trend has continued. J.J. Putz has struggled. So, the answer is no. Not good enough.

Was the bold trade for

Erik Bedard a good idea?

Bedard was supposed to lead this team to the playoffs. An early-season hip injury slowed him and he had been the team's top pitcher until getting blown out in New York. But the Mariners need more. Bedard tossed his best outing against the Red Sox on Wednesday — with his team already 15 games under .500. Before that, he'd posted a 6.35 earned-run average in May, and Miguel Batista had as many outings of seven or more innings. Bedard had failed to go more than 4-1/3 innings in two of his past three outings. In other words, with the season fading, he contributed to the team's demise. Bedard's ERA, when adjusted for park factors, is below league average, and his strikeouts are down.

As for the trade, Adam Jones and his struggling bat would not have made much of a difference this year. Wladimir Balentien has done about what Jones would have. George Sherrill as a lefty setup man might have won a couple of games early that Eric O'Flaherty helped lose. And Sherrill could have filled in when J.J. Putz went down. Chris Tillman has been lights-out in the minors. Seattle needs to make the playoffs for this deal to have been worth it. Maybe next year. So far, the O's have it.

Richie Sexson was terrible last year; will he bounce back?

In a promising April, Sexson was working counts, barely missing some hittable pitches while connecting for power on others. He posted a modest .765 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in April with hopes for more. It all went out the window in May. His OPS fell to a dismal .587, with a .197 on-base-percentage. That five-game suspension did throw him off, but he was fading before that. He'd fanned 25 times in 59 at-bats in May before being benched in favor of Miguel Cairo the past two games. With a third of the season done, he's as bad as ever.

Is John McLaren the right manager for the Mariners?

McLaren has yet to prove this. While GM Bavasi had it right in that the players are most to blame, to say McLaren has done a good job is stretching things. Good managers usually have good players. But good managers also know how to get the most out of players.

Think of the job Jim Fregosi did in getting the over-the-hill, 1993 Philadelphia Phillies to the World Series. Or Tony LaRussa actually winning a World Series with Jeff Weaver and the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. McLaren's players have underachieved. By any measurement, they have not replicated their career numbers, or their projected stats.

Clubhouse leadership lacking? The manager takes some blame. McLaren keeps saying his guys are "playing hard," but their overall play — from pitchers, hitters and defenders — improved noticeably only this week. His guys literally are running into walls to win games now. But it took time. And they still aren't executing in key situations. McLaren is fortunate to still have a job. And he's not guaranteed to hold on to it.

Should the Mariners have spent $48 million

on Carlos Silva?

The question should be whether the team is getting what it was willing to overpay for. At first glance, no. Silva looked great in April, going 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA. But in May, as with other starters, he has imploded to the tune of 0-4 with an 8.89 ERA. Part of it is the defense behind him. A lot of it is that the balls opponents have put into play off Silva have been hit harder in May. Some will call it "regression to the mean" and say this will always be Silva without better defense. He's still getting rocked by lefty hitters, after all. Others will say he's simply part of a rotation-wide slump.

Still, Silva has thrown as many seven-inning outings as Felix Hernandez. With a better defense, he could be that solid No. 3 starter the team wanted. But so far, he's been below average at a high cost.

Is Bill Bavasi's plan ready to pay off for the Mariners?

Which plan? The rotation carrying the team to the playoffs? Scratch that. How about the plan where the infield defense is anchored for years to come by a young shortstop and second baseman given multimillion-dollar deals? Uh, no. Jose Lopez has shown some improvement, but Yuniesky Betancourt's defense is worse and his plate discipline nonexistent.

So, what plan? Brad Wilkerson was a bust in right field. Jose Vidro was a disaster at DH when it mattered. Sexson was a black hole at first base. Kenji Johjima tanked and was given a three-year extension. Jose Guillen, one of the team leaders from 2007, is sorely missed. The clubhouse appeared rudderless until Bavasi, its architect, called the players out. None of Bavasi's "plans" — A, B, C, D, or E — have really worked. Nor are they ready to. Lots of work remains. The question is, will he?

Is Felix Hernandez ready

to show the Cy Young form

so many have predicted

for him?

Hernandez has been the same as last season when you adjust his ERA for ballpark factors. Seattle needed him to take a step forward. He's not among the team's worst problems, but he saved his sloppiest performances for the stretch in which the Mariners tanked. This isn't about his won-lost record. He's had some hard luck. But he's a guy who can look like a Cy Young Award contender one night, then struggle to get past the fifth inning in key games. Walk totals are way up. He should top 200 innings for the first time and is still only 22. Bottom line? He posted a 5.64 ERA in May, allowing two base runners per inning and a .314 average against. Silva has as many outings of six and seven innings. Hernandez isn't ace material yet.

Is Jose Lopez the answer

at second base?

He has been the least of the team's problems. That said, the Mariners are one of the worst teams in the majors (tied with Colorado for the worst overall record). His overall numbers are OK, though he still doesn't get on base enough. He has hit well with runners in scoring position and has produced in multiple spots higher in the order, rather than at the No. 8 position. His defense remains a concern. There are still too many occasions — last Saturday in New York being one — where he'll make an error out of nowhere. But his ability to lay down bunts, move runners over and get them home from third base with fewer than two outs has taken a big step forward.

The big question about Lopez has been his second-half fades. There is still a month to go in the first half. But so far, a cautious "yes" to the question.

Will Ichiro put up another typical All-Star season?

That won't matter any more. When things did matter, he put up a .683 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in April as the team fell into a tailspin. By the time Ichiro got his bat going in May, with a .816 OPS so far, it was nearly too late. This offense can't afford for a guy to use April as a warm-up month. By the numbers, he has regressed. He was a .299 career hitter in April before this season. That fell to .259 this year. Because he's mostly a singles hitter, that batting average matters plenty. The bold prediction of 80 stolen bases by manager McLaren this winter actually has a shot at coming close, with Ichiro now at 23 swipes. His defense still is the best on this team. And that matters. But overall, he's been less valuable.

Is the farm system stocked with players who can help this year and beyond?

Two were called up in April, but Balentien and Jeff Clement could not hit well enough to steady the team. Balentien is hitting a shaky .221 with a .702 OPS, but is an upgrade over Wilkerson. Clement hit only .167 with 20 strikeouts in 48 at-bats during a 15-game stint but will likely be back up shortly. The Mariners have also received strong reviews about No. 1 draft pick Phillippe Aumont, with a .174 ERA and .179 batting average against in Class A Wisconsin. One Class A level above that, 19-year-old shortstop Carlos Triunfel is having maturity issues, with a .679 OPS and a recent suspension for violating team rules. For immediate help, Clement is it. Long term, other than lefty Ryan Feierabend and catcher Adam Moore, Aumont is tops.

Geoff Baker: 206-464-8286 or gbaker@seattletimes.com

For the record

Streak: W2

Home: 13-14

Road: 7-20

vs. AL West: 10-11

vs. L.A.: 3-3

vs. Oakland: 3-2

vs. Texas: 4-6

vs. AL East: 5-14

vs. AL Central: 3-8

vs. NL: 2-1

vs. LHP: 4-10

vs. RHP: 16-24

Day: 6-10

Night: 14-24

One-run: 5-10

Extra innings: 2-2

Home attendance

Wednesday's crowd: 30,752

Season total: 747,497

Biggest crowd: 46,334 (March 31)

Smallest crowd: 15,818 (May 6)

Average (27 dates): 27,685

2007 average (27 dates): 29,985

* Through Wednesday's game