Are Mariners ready for next step?

PEORIA, Ariz. — Pythagoras went to his grave in Ancient Greece believing he'd be remembered for triangles. The 6th century B.C. mathematician and philosopher devised a theory that told the world how right triangles should be measured. ¶ But for many Mariners fans, triangles aren't what they think of when Pythagoras is mentioned. ¶ Each year, a complex equation called the "Pythagorean Expectation" is used by baseball statistics hounds to predict what a team's won-lost record should have been, based on the difference between runs scored and runs allowed. ¶ And its proponents say the Mariners were more like a 79-win team last season than one that posted 88 victories and was six games from the American League West Division lead.

The baseball equation, created by stats guru Bill James but named after Pythagoras because of similarities in the math used, raises this question: Were the Mariners truly close enough to the division-winning Los Angeles Angels last season to have justified the bold player moves they made this past winter?

"I think we're ready to take that next step," Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi said as camp opened this spring.

Bavasi's biggest move was trading five players, including outfielder Adam Jones and left-handed reliever George Sherrill, for Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Erik Bedard. As good as Bedard is expected to be, already supplanting Felix Hernandez as the No. 1 starter, he is only under club control through 2009.

Critics say it was lunacy to give up so much for a two-year pitching rental, who at best gets the Mariners from their true 79-win level to maybe 85 victories. But those who believe the Mariners were really an 88-win squad last season — which is, in fact, the win total they had — say the Bedard-led Mariners are now a pitching powerhouse and playoff contender.

Whatever happens next, Pythagoras is sure to be close behind.

If the Mariners stumble, proponents of the Pythagorean expectation will shake their fingers, secure in their warnings that Seattle being outscored 813-794 last year was not the mark of a winner. Most teams allowing more runs than they score have losing records.

But there are exceptions, like the 2007 NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks. The Mariners and D-Backs overachieving their "Pythag" made them targets of frenzied analysis.

Some concluded that Seattle's strong bullpen helped win more one- and two-run games last season. Others say the presence of below-average pitchers in the rotation led to several blowout losses that skewed the overall run differential.

Both areas have been impacted by the winter moves.

The bullpen will seek to replace Sherrill's dazzling numbers with lefty Eric O'Flaherty, entering his second full season. With right-handed setup man Brandon Morrow having a sore shoulder this spring, there are concerns about getting the ball to closer J.J. Putz.

That's one reason the Mariners installed Rule 5 draft pick R.A. Dickey as a long reliever. The knuckleballer is expected to go more innings and pitch more frequently than a traditional reliever.

Some suggest the bullpen is weaker without Sherrill and that Putz can't repeat his stellar 2007 totals of 40 saves, a 1.38 earned-run average and a .153 opponents batting average. But others counter that the improved rotation, with Bedard and free-agent Carlos Silva replacing ousted starters Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez, will help spare the bullpen.

"Just not having to throw three or four innings every night should be huge," Putz said. "As a bullpen, you have to be ready for anything. But if those guys can stay out there longer the way that's expected, it makes all of us better."

One lesser-known fact about $48 million free-agent signee Silva is that he threw as many seven-inning games last season as Felix Hernandez. Bedard threw more seven-inning games than either Hernandez or Silva, meaning the rotation has tools to go deeper.

Hernandez should benefit from no longer carrying the No. 1 pitcher load. The Mariners will be satisfied if the pitcher dubbed "King Felix" merely makes strides beyond the 14-win, moderately above-average pitcher he was last season.

While Hernandez, who turns 22 next week, already has the off-field strut and attitude of a star more and more down pat, his on-field game hasn't quite caught up. His youth has shielded Hernandez from criticism, but the team wants to see more maturity, not to mention improved thinking behind his pitches.

"I need to throw strikes," Hernandez kept repeating after a recent Cactus League thrashing.

But saying it and doing it are different things.

It speaks volumes that former pitching coach Rafael Chaves was reduced to showing Hernandez an Internet blog post by a fan last season to get him to stop throwing predictable sequences of pitches. For all his potential, Hernandez was not the No. 1 starter typically found on a playoff team.

The way it's now set up, Hernandez no longer has to be Cy Young Award material for the team to contend. Instead, he can keep slowly improving while Bedard vies for hardware.

Bedard did that last year, before his Cy Young hopes were dashed with an oblique strain that ended his season in late August.

But he's healthy now and the Mariners feel the move to pitcher-friendly Safeco Field will only enhance a lefty who led the league with 221 strikeouts and posted a 3.17 earned run average last season.

The question some have is whether Seattle's new rotation prowess, with Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista rounding out a strong back end, will be compromised by shoddy defense.

The team hopes for continued infield improvement from second baseman Jose Lopez and shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt. Lopez must show more or he could lose his job.

Before his trade, Jones was expected to bring a defensive upgrade to right field.

That won't happen now.

But newcomer Brad Wilkerson should offer a slight defensive upgrade over Jose Guillen last year — if not what Jones could have offered.

For what left fielder Raul Ibanez brings with his bat — consistent 20-homer, 100-RBI capability — he takes something away with his defense.

No matter what, Ichiro seems destined to again be busy patrolling center field and the gaps. The Mariners are banking on Ibanez and Wilkerson compensating at the plate for what they might not bring with their gloves.

Seattle's offense was slightly above the league average last year and needs to stay there. That won't be easy, with Guillen's 23 home runs and 99 RBI having left for Kansas City.

Everyone expects Ichiro to notch 200 hits and score 100 runs.

The Mariners will be helped enormously if Richie Sexson rebounds even slightly from his cataclysmic 2007 season. The perennial 30-home-run hitter dropped to 21, with a paltry .205 batting average, a .295 on-base-percentage and a .399 slugging percentage.

Another who could help is designated hitter Jose Vidro, especially if his second-half on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) of .867 from last year holds over an entire season.

Mariners manager John McLaren, so patient with struggling veterans last season, can't afford another .698 first-half OPS out of Vidro. Nor Sexson heading to mid-May with the same .594 OPS he had at that point in 2007.

Not when the team has potential replacements like Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien in Class AAA.

"We've made it very clear to our players what we expect," McLaren said. "We expect to go beyond where we went last season and to do that, everyone has to play a part. We have every confidence they will."

And if they don't, it will be a long summer. Expectations have been raised, especially with early injuries to top Angels starters John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar.

The Mariners will have to prove Pythagoras — or at least, the formula named after him — was wrong. They must show that last season wasn't a fluke.

"We believe in ourselves," McLaren said. "We know what has to be done."

Geoff Baker: 206-464-8286 or gbaker@seattletimes.com.

Read his daily blog at www.seattletimes.com/Mariners