Analysis: Patience trying for M's, fans

General manager Bill Bavasi said this week that the Mariners are trying to win each day, a position that is probably predictable and possibly posturing. However, it is that mindset, born of years of being competitive under former manager Lou Piniella, that has brought the current dark and stormy night to the Seattle franchise.

Baseball fortunes run in cycles, and are always — always — based on how good one's pitching is, unless there is a lack of pitching through the division or league, as there is now.

Even with a month to go, it is not hard to see where this year's failure came from and where the solutions lie.

The root of the rot that ruined this season is found in the Mariners' — and fans'? — unwillingness to ride the cycle, which can be as short as three years or as long as five.

The Seattle organization has accomplished some important things. While it is totally lost in the welter of losing, it is building a future around a young bullpen and middle defense, and outfielder Adam Jones stands a chance to be the best player the Mariners have produced in a decade.

In fact, it is because of this building — while trying futile and misguided efforts to win — that Bavasi and manager Mike Hargrove stay in place. While trying to compete daily, as Bavasi said, their watchword is patience.

Bavasi, in particular, has a dual task. While trying to win at the big-league level, his bigger job was to restock the farm system to maintain a steady stream of talent for the majors, ably supported by scouting director Bob Fontaine and international scout Bob Engle.

A major part of today's massive frustration stems from this duality of purpose.

Rather than risking fans' reaction to a downswing, the Mariners tried to buy their way through this natural pause in win production and they have failed. Only the New York Yankees do this well; even the Boston Red Sox have shown this year they cannot with any consistency.

Owners must be acknowledged for willingness to spend for Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre and Jarrod Washburn. But at the same time, they must be knocked for their iron-clad business principles.

It's not so much their requirement to avoid a loss each year as the idea that profits — or monies saved like those from moving Eddie Guardado and Jamie Moyer — of one year can't be set aside for when the time is right.

Cynics are clamoring that Mariners CEO Howard Lincoln has finally gotten a team that mirrors his style of organization, tight (uptight?). But credit Lincoln with one huge thing. He understands now that baseball bears risks beyond most other businesses.

Research and development normally produces products that sell. Baseball R&D produces no more than best-guesses that if someone stays healthy they stand a chance of doing the job you paid them for.

While it is easy to slam the team for paying too much for free agents, and players for earning too much, understand Seattle is deep into a losing mode and as former GM Pat Gillick once succinctly explained, must "pay a premium of $2 million to $3 million a year to attract good players."

Sexson and Beltre are good players who have not had good years, much less the kinds of years their salaries dictate.

Using strict baseball logic, the Mariners thought signing them was buying a way through the downturn of the cycle.

In Sexson and Beltre, the Mariners thought they were getting glue guys, re-creating the team chemistry, cohesion, camaraderie that Jay Buhner and Edgar Martinez, even Mark McLemore and Stan Javier, brought to the lineup and to the clubhouse.

But Sexson and Beltre are both naturally introverted, and despite their team's desperate need for more from them, have shown no interest or understanding of giving beyond sincerely hard efforts to win each game. They have been distant and/or distracted, self-absorbed, both intensely embarrassed by their own struggles.

This last psyche naturally fed feelings that their inability to produce as expected on the field undercut them to act like leaders. But that is wrong. Buhner, for instance, never lost the raucous upbeat mood he spread around the room.

Teams pay for stature as well as statistics. But even Beltre, as intelligent a fellow as you'll find on any roster, seems to have no feel for sharing his character.

Ichiro could be a leader, as shown by his vociferous and spirited leadership of Japan's team in the World Baseball Classic. But this is impossible because the outfielder, despite six years in Seattle, chooses to remain wrapped in his own way of doing things.

Much of this is admirable, total preparation and focus, and disdain for much of what he sees around him, dismay, maybe even disgust, that he presumably reports back to owner Hiroshi Yamauchi each winter.

Ichiro's stature as one of the game's great contact hitters is undercut by the way he approaches the game. His tunnel vision is on getting hits — his idea of how best to help the team — not doing all he can to help.

For instance, although he has played center field in Japan, it took him a month to agree to move to center for the Mariners. Meantime, Seattle suffered. Shin-Soo Choo, who may or may not prove to be a sound big-league player, was forced into center field and not right, where he stood his best chance of helping.

Had Ichiro not agreed to move, Chris Snelling, who looks a potential major-league producer, would have as little chance as Choo had. Choo got a measly 11 at-bats, a joke of a tryout, while struggling to play out of position while Ichiro watched and did nothing.

Should Hargrove be firmer? First of all, the days of firm managing are far between in the majors and Hargrove reputedly was the subject of some of Ichiro's comments to Yamauchi last winter, so that may play a part here.

Overall, the manager has an easy rein on his veteran regulars. Hargrove can be faulted for letting them play all they want, which is virtually all the time. As a result, fatigue could have had a role in this recent collapse.

Yamauchi, who has paid for the right to be involved, could be too much so, although it is undoubtedly well-intentioned. He was right in recommending catcher Kenji Johjima, although his offense is much more than his defense and game-calling at a position that cries for more balance between the two parts.

When the Mariners were asked for Ichiro in trades at the deadline, they refused, although their need for a top-of-the-rotation pitcher is far greater than a singles hitter who covers a corner outfield spot well.

Can they trade the owner's favorite player? It might be best, if they can overcome what is thought to be Yamauchi's firm stance against losing Ichiro.

For certain it would help financially, saving about $11 million in a winter when the payroll budget is near-certain to tighten by 10 percent or more.

Attempting trades does not play to Bavasi's strength. Gillick once admitted he was not a good trader and preferred building with free agents and youth.

Bavasi does not have a good record as a dealer, either. But his forte seems to be what the Mariners most need now, building through development.

If it comes to trades, it might be easier to move Sexson, a proven longball hitter, although no one is going to take on his full salary. If Seattle could split the difference, with Ben Broussard or Greg Dobbs playing first base, they would save about $7 million.

Joel Pineiro will undoubtedly be non-tendered and gone — unless he agrees to stay for much less than his current $6.3 million — because the most he can be cut if he is kept on the roster would be 20 percent, still a salary of more than $5 million for 2007.

The departures of Moyer, Guardado, Gil Meche (who could also agree to return for less than he might get on the free-agent market), Carl Everett and Pineiro would reduce the payroll by about $25 million.

Some of this money, about $5 million, will go to raises for J.J. Putz, Yuniesky Betancourt, et al. In fact, expect great effort made to get a number of the younger players signed to multi-year contracts this offseason.

But however Seattle's payroll shakes out this winter, available funds must be spent on pitching.

Club officials are anticipating three openings in the rotation to go with Felix Hernandez and Washburn, and while Jake Woods (whom Hargrove wanted in the rotation months ago) could fill one and maybe Rafael Soriano another, they need a veteran starter who can start on opening day and maybe another for Day 2 as well.

Pitching, the deeper the better even in these days when no team has quality depth on the mound, is where success begins.

There is solace and considerable hope in the fact that in the bullpen, and middle infield, notable by the standards of even first-place teams, the Mariners are far ahead of where they were this time last year.

Bob Finnigan: 206-464-8276 or bfinnigan@seattletimes.com