M's armed, ready for draft

To hear most scouts and analysts talk, the upcoming major-league draft on June 6-7, in which the Mariners hold the No. 5 overall pick, is the weakest in years, lacking both in depth and superstar talent.

Their consensus is that many players, if not most, that rank as first-rounders would have gone much lower last year. This year's high-school class is said to be particularly barren, with Travis Snider of Mill Creek's Jackson High School rated as one of the few premier hitting prospects at the prep level.

The Mariners, however, aren't joining the negative chorus. After selecting USC catcher Jeff Clement third overall last year, they believe they can score again with this year's fifth pick.

"I just know that our guys [scouts] don't seem to have that disgusted attitude others have," said general manager Bill Bavasi. "We'll be all right. We're looking for pitching, and we're seeing that there's good pitching out there."

According to the latest industry rumblings, the Mariners are looking hardest at former Tennessee right-hander Luke Hochevar, currently pitching for the independent Fort Worth Cats, and University of North Carolina right-hander Daniel Bard.

Those names are not etched in stone, however. Depending on what happens above them, Seattle might have to make a tough hometown call on University of Washington flash Tim Lincecum, who has had spectacular results but worries scouts because of his size and unconventional mechanics.

"He goes against everything you grow up with as a scout," said one major-league executive. "He's short, and has a funky delivery, but at the end of the day, he's leading the country in strikeouts. You have to pay attention to that."

John Manuel of Baseball America, a pre-eminent draft analyst, said that Lincecum is so unique that teams are having a hard time deciding what to do with him. In the magazine's mock draft, they have Lincecum being chosen No. 9 by the Orioles, meaning the Mariners would have a shot at him.

"Our understanding is that they're praying someone in front of them takes Lincecum, so they don't have to keep explaining why they didn't take him," Manuel said.

Other pitchers on the Mariners' radar include Bard's North Carolina teammate, Andrew Miller, a left-handed pitcher who is generally considered the No. 1 available talent. But that doesn't mean Miller will go No. 1. The Royals, who hold that pick, might not be willing to pay him the going No. 1 rate, despite public assurances from ownership that money won't be a factor in their pick.

The other pitchers believed to be on the Mariners' short list are Houston's Brad Lincoln, California's Brandon Morrow and Stanford's Greg Reynolds. In the unlikely case that they take a position player, the top two players on their board are thought to be Long Beach State infielder Evan Longoria (no relation to actress Eva Longoria), and Texas outfielder Drew Stubbs.

According to Baseball America's mock draft, the M's will select Hochevar, but that's problematical.

For one thing, Hochevar, the 40th overall pick last year by the Dodgers, might not even be in the draft. The Dodgers have until Tuesday to sign the 6-4 right-hander, a Scott Boras client who would have gone much higher last year — perhaps even first overall by the Diamondbacks — if not for the annual trepidation about negotiating with Boras.

If the Dodgers don't sign Hochevar — and few expect an 11th-hour deal — he goes back into the draft. Last September, Hochevar was thought to have accepted the Dodgers' $2.98 million bonus after changing agents, but he went back to Boras and turned the offer down.

Hochevar, who is said to be seeking about a $4 million bonus, recently signed with the independent Cats as a predraft showcase. Scouts have been flooding Fort Worth to watch him pitch.

In three outings for the Cats, Hochevar is 1-1 with a 3.24 earned-run average, allowing 15 hits in 15-2/3 innings with 28 strikeouts and 10 walks. Most importantly, he has touched 97 on the speed gun and has consistently been throwing in the low to mid 90s.

"I would say that in the games he's pitched, there are more scouts behind home plate than there are season-ticket holders," said Monty Clegg, general manager of the Cats, by phone. "It seems that way when the guys all hold up their [speed] guns. There's probably been 25 to 30 scouts every time he's pitched."

Manuel compares Hochevar to two other recent Boras holdouts — Jered Weaver, called up by the Angels on Friday, and Mike Pelfrey, shooting up through the Mets' organization.

"Pelfrey has better stuff and Weaver has more command, but Hochevar throws harder and has a better slider than Weaver," Manuel said. "In my mind, he's a shade behind Pelfrey as far as fastball velocity and command. But what Hochevar has that Pelfrey doesn't is a good slider."

The 6-4, 202-pound Bard is 7-3 with a 3.53 ERA as a North Carolina junior this year, striking out 82 in 79 innings. His ERA is perhaps deceptively high because of one bad outing against the University of Maryland in which he gave up 10 runs in 5-1/3 innings.

"He's blessed with an unbelievable arm," UNC coach Mike Fox said in a phone interview. "He has just a tremendous fastball. The ball explodes out of his hand. He can run it up there pretty good — 95 plus. He just has one of those God-given arms you don't see every day."

Last summer, Bard led the Cape Cod League in strikeouts and was rated as the second-best prospect, behind Miller. But he has also struggled at times with command in his college career and is ranked as the No. 15 prospect by Baseball America.

"I shouldn't say this but I will — he reminds me a little of Justin Verlander," Manuel said, referring to the Detroit Tigers' 23-year-old phenom.

"Both were well-regarded guys with electric stuff, but the results in college never matched that stuff," Manuel said.

"The Tigers made a mechanical tweak, softened his landing, and he took off. I don't think it would be that simple with Bard. But with his electric arm, if you can fix his breaking ball, he will take off, because the fastball is there."

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com.