Rolling the dice in free agency

If you don't think free agency is a multimillion-dollar crapshoot, talk to the Yankees about Carl Pavano, who seems to be breaking down body part by body part since signing a four-year, $39.5 million deal prior to the 2005 season.

Now Pavano needs elbow surgery and is out indefinitely, making the Mariners deliriously happy he didn't take their similar offer in December of 2004.

Or talk to the Blue Jays about A.J. Burnett, who has worked two games since signing a five-year, $55 million contract, and is back on the disabled list with, gulp, elbow problems. That's an ominous development for a guy that had Tommy John surgery in 2003.

Closer to home, the Mariners are fervently hoping their $115 million duo, Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre, starts delivering this season. If not, they will join the long, long list of free-agent disappointments. So what are teams doing to mitigate the risk of giving huge contracts to players from outside their organization?

Simple: giving huge contracts to players within their organizations. On Friday, when Baltimore's Melvin Mora signed a three-year, $25 million contract extension, he became the latest potential 2006-07 free agent to come off the market.

Others who have signed recent extensions include David Ortiz of the Red Sox, Derrek Lee of the Cubs, Jose Contreras, A.J. Pierzynski and Jon Garland of the White Sox, Randy Winn of the Giants and Jeff Kent of the Dodgers.

In addition, numerous teams have locked up their young stars to long-term deals that take away a year or perhaps two of free agency — the most recent example being Arizona's Chad Tracy. Other young players signed into what would have been their free-agent years include Boston's Coco Crisp; Cleveland's Jhonny Peralta, Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner; Toronto's Roy Halliday; the Angels' John Lackey; and Arizona's Brandon Webb.

"You're seeing more long-term contracts, three and four years," San Diego general manager Kevin Towers said. "Personally, I'm not much in favor of that. Flexibility is a great thing to have.

"However, if it's your own player, it's not as much of a gamble. Like the Diamondbacks with Tracy — they signed him and developed him, and know what he's all about. They have a history with him, and know medically what he has going on. It's a better risk."

Here is a position-by-position look at the best potential free agents this winter — a list that can also serve as a primer for possible midseason trades, as non-contending teams try to get some return for players they expect to lose:

Starting pitchers

Cream of the crop: Barry Zito, A's; Mark Mulder, Cardinals.

Others: Greg Maddux, Cubs; Andy Pettitte, Astros; Jason Schmidt, Giants; Randy Wolf, Phillies; Kelvim Escobar, Angels; Jamie Moyer and Gil Meche, Mariners; Jason Marquis and Jeff Suppan, Cardinals; Tony Armas, Nationals.

Team options: Mike Mussina, Yankees; Kerry Wood, Cubs; Mark Buehrle, White Sox.

Relief pitchers

Cream of the crop: Bob Wickman, Indians.

Others: Eddie Guardado, Mariners; Mike Timlin, Red Sox; Ron Villone, Yankees; Tanyon Sturtze, Yankees; Aaron Fultz, Phillies; LaTroy Hawkins, Baltimore; Guillermo Mota, Indians.

Team options: Mariano Rivera, Yankees; Eric Gagne, Dodgers; Keith Foulke, Red Sox; Francisco Cordero, Rangers.

First base

Cream of the crop: Aubrey Huff, Devil Rays.

Others: Sean Casey, Pirates; Darin Erstad, Angels; Phil Nevin, Rangers; Travis Lee, Devil Rays; Kevin Millar, Orioles; Scott Hatteberg, Reds.

Team options: Dmitri Young, Tigers; Eduardo Perez, Indians.

Second base

Cream of the crop: Alfonso Soriano, Nationals (currently playing outfield).

Others: Craig Biggio, Astros; Adam Kennedy, Angels; Mark Loretta, Red Sox; Todd Walker, Cubs.

Team option: Luis Castillo, Twins; Mark Grudzielanek, Royals; Rich Aurilia, Reds.

Third base

Cream of the crop: Shea Hillenbrand, Blue Jays.

Others: David Bell, Phillies; Pedro Feliz, Giants; Joe Randa, Pirates; Vinny Castilla, Padres; Tony Batista, Twins; Jeff Cirillo, Brewers.

Team option: Aramis Ramirez, Cubs; Aaron Boone, Indians.

Shortstop

Cream of the crop: Alex Gonzalez, Red Sox.

Others: Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers (currently playing first base); Julio Lugo, Devil Rays; Royce Clayton, Nationals.

Catcher

Cream of the crop: Rod Barajas, Rangers.

Others: Javy Lopez, Orioles; Mike Lieberthal, Phillies; Henry Blanco, Cubs; Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays; Vance Wilson, Tigers.

Team option: Jorge Posada, Yankees; Bengie Molina, Blue Jays; Damian Miller, Brewers; Mike Piazza, Padres.

Outfield

Cream of the crop: Barry Bonds, Giants.

Others: Carlos Lee, Brewers; Trot Nixon, Red Sox; Shannon Stewart, Twins; Cliff Floyd, Mets; Moises Alou, Giants; Juan Pierre, Cubs; Jose Guillen, Nationals; Dave Roberts, Padres; Bernie Williams, Yankees; Craig Wilson, Pirates.

Team option: Jim Edmonds, Cardinals; Gary Sheffield, Yankees; Torii Hunter, Twins; Luis Gonzalez, Diamondbacks; Ryan Klesko and Mike Cameron, Padres; Steve Finley, Giants; Jermaine Dye, White Sox; Carl Everett, Mariners; Aaron Rowand, Phillies; Casey Blake, Indians.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com