The calm before the baseball Hall of Fame storm

Bruce Sutter is finally in Cooperstown, which is long overdue, and Goose Gossage, Andre Dawson, Jim Rice and Bert Blyleven still aren't, which is a long-running shame.

But the most tumultuous Hall of Fame story is just now starting to percolate. Next year at this time, trust me, it will be a full, roiling whirlpool of controversy.

Mark McGwire is on the clock.

Oh, so are Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn, both of whom will be, along with McGwire, first-time entrants on next year's Hall of Fame ballot.

But the only intrigue involving those other two will be to hear the reasoning from those lunkheads who chose not to vote for them. And I guarantee, Ripken and Gwynn, while as close to first-ballot locks as anyone in recent times, will not be unanimous. No one ever has been, from Ruth to DiMaggio (who didn't make it until his third year of eligibility!) to Aaron.

So Ripken — with his 2,632 consecutive games, two Most Valuable Player awards, 19 All-Star appearances and 3,184 hits — and Gwynn — with his eight batting titles, .338 career average, 3,141 hits, five Gold Gloves and 15 All-Star appearances — are sure to be found unworthy by a curmudgeonly, clueless handful.

McGwire, on the other hand, is a longshot for first-ballot immortality, and that is going to be a huge issue with massive long-range implications.

All the steroids-fueled controversy of the past few years will be channeled in the big redhead — the first, and in many ways, the best test case for just where the Baseball Writers Association of America stands on the chemically accused mass of sluggers from this tainted era.

McGwire has the numbers, no question about it — 583 career homers, sixth on the all-time list, plus the distinction of breaking Roger Maris's season record with 70 in 1998.

But he also has the stain of androstenedione, and the shame of his Congressional appearance in 2005, when he declined, under oath, to answer any questions related to steroids use.

In the minds of many, his constant refrain that "I don't want to talk about the past" was tantamount to an admission of guilt. Polls taken in the wake of those hearings showed that just 43.1 percent of BBWAA voters would definitely vote for McGwire. It takes 75 percent for election.

The proxy on McGwire next year will be a harbinger for other steroids suspects to come, from Sammy Sosa to Rafael Palmeiro to Barry Bonds, who come armed with Cooperstown-worthy statistics but pointed questions about their legitimacy.

My strong hunch is that many writers will withhold McGwire's vote next year as punishment, to keep him from the prestige that goes with first-ballot selection, but that he will eventually sneak in.

My current inclination is to hold my nose and vote for McGwire, about whom we have suspicions but no proof other than his own admission, in 1998, that he took andro — which at the time was not on baseball's list of banned substances.

To write off McGwire is essentially to write off the performances of an entire generation of players, and I'm not yet prepared to do that based on innuendo, hearsay, gut feeling and Jose Canseco.

As for Tuesday's vote, Sutter is certainly a worthy selection — and it took the writers only 13 years to come around to that realization. Sutter said yesterday he broke into tears when the word came from BBWAA secretary-treasurer Jack O'Connell. But he kept wondering if it was all a hoax.

"When the commissioner called me, I said, 'It must be true,' " he said on a national conference call. "Then when the announcement came on ESPN, I watched with my sons. I said, 'Wouldn't it be something if they said no one got in?' "

Now that Sutter's long road to Cooperstown has ended — he received just 109 votes in 1994, his first year of eligibility, the total growing to 400 this year — one can only hope that Gossage, Rice, Blyleven and Dawson will eventually wear down the electorate as well.

My ballot included those five, as always, plus Jack Morris and Lee Smith, whose chances of eventual selection seem to be increasingly slim.

This was a low-key year, with no first-year nominees on the ballot with a chance of getting elected.

Call it the calm before the storm.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com

Hall of Fame voting
The top finishers in this year's balloting for Cooperstown. To be inducted, a player must receive 390 votes, or 75 percent.
Name	Votes	%
Bruce Sutter	400	76.9
Jim Rice	337	64.8
Rich "Goose" Gossage	336	64.6
Andre Dawson	317	61.0
Bert Blyleven	277	53.3
Lee Smith	234	45.0
Jack Morris	214	41.2