Despite a drier-than-usual November and a dry start to December, winter — which officially doesn't even begin for another three weeks — could still pack a punch.

"We're expecting enhanced chances of below-normal temperatures and above-average precipitation over the next three months" in the Northwest, said Jon Gottschalck of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md.

A moderate La Niña weather pattern, marked by cooler waters in the tropical Pacific, will likely play a key role in shaping our winter weather, Gottschalck said.

During a La Niña, the Pacific jet stream typically shifts north as it approaches the U.S. West Coast, aiming more storms at Washington and British Columbia, while producing drier-than-usual weather along California's coast.

Gottschalck had good news for skiers: Though this year's La Niña is not as strong as last winter's, it could still produce heavy snowfall in the Cascades well into the new year.

It didn't seem this way during last week's downpours, but November's rainfall, 5.16 inches at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, was more than an inch below the 6.57 inches that is normal for November.

More than half of last month's rain — 2.61 inches — fell in a single three-day stretch beginning Monday of last week.

In contrast, 14 November days had no rain or just a trace.

Cliff Mass, University of Washington meteorologist, noted on his blog early this week that we've passed the part of the winter season that often delivers some of the year's worst weather.

"But that doesn't mean it's over," Mass said Thursday, noting that the chance of lowland snow — perhaps the weather condition most disruptive to life around Puget Sound — typically peaks in the latter part of winter.

For the next few days, the Seattle area is likely to see morning fog but no precipitation, according to the Weather Service.

Mass said Western Washington is in for a blast of cold next week as the high-pressure system that has kept us dry moves out and behind it, arctic air is pulled into the region.

But it's not clear yet, he said, whether there will be the proper combination of cold air and moisture to bring snow to the Seattle metro area.

In the meantime, Mass said the area is experiencing extremely high atmospheric pressure, triggering high winds as far away as the Southwest and California as air rushes toward areas of low pressure.

Although winter weather brings challenges, Seattle winters are typically benign compared with what some other parts of the U.S. endure, and that's likely to be the case against this winter, according to a winter-forecast update issued Thursday by AccuWeather.com, a Pennsylvania-based private forecasting agency.

"Brutal" winter weather is shaping up from the Northern Rocky Mountains to the Midwest, with Chicago and Minneapolis in the heart of the cold and snowy zone, according to AccuWeather.com.

And New England is looking at cold snaps and more snow than usual.

Jack Broom: 206-464-2222 or jbroom@seattletimes.com