Washington voters can expect transit, road taxes on the ballot in 2012

OLYMPIA — State legislators will neither cut nor add big highway projects this year, but voters can expect a mix of road and transit taxes on the ballot in 2012, the House Transportation Committee chairwoman said Monday.

Rep. Judy Clibborn, D-Mercer Island, said she wants lawmakers to suggest the "bare bones" of the 2012 package by the end of this spring session.

At least four factors explain the push for new taxes:

• In the past decade, the number of miles driven has flattened, while cars are more fuel-efficient, so gas-tax income is forecast to gradually decline.

• Lawmakers overpromised what the 2003-05 gas and car-tab revenues could deliver, so more cash is needed for postponed projects such as the redecking of Interstate 5 in Seattle.

• Demand still exists for new routes, such as extensions of Highway 167 serving the Port of Tacoma, that stalled when voters rejected the 2007 Roads and Transit measure.

• Finally, transit boosters are frustrated by sales-tax losses that are forcing bus agencies to freeze or cut service — and some would like to hasten new rail and bus-rapid transit.

Clibborn and Rep. Mike Armstrong of Wenatchee, the panel's ranking Republican, said they will refer any tax plans to voters, rather than enact them in Olympia.

One reason is Initiative 1053, which voters approved last fall, requiring a two-thirds legislative majority for tax hikes.

The topic came up as Clibborn released the House's proposed 2011-13 transportation budget Monday, to be followed by the Senate version Tuesday.

The $8.9 billion biennial budget is notable mainly for proposals to increase ferry fares by 5 percent on Oct. 1 and 2.5 percent more a year later, and to cut back on boat trips during low-use times of day.

This is despite unionized ferry workers agreeing to wage and benefit concessions to save $10 million a year, while administration cuts would save $5.8 million and reduced boat hours $3.1 million.

Higher gas taxes would be part of a 2012 ballot plan, said Clibborn. But Armstrong said gas taxes are "antiquated" and not a reliable funding source in an age of more efficient cars.

The gas-tax forecast for 2011-13 was recently scaled down by $100 million, or 2 percent, and projected to gradually decrease long term.

Committee Vice Chairman Rep. Marko Liias, D-Edmonds, said if gas taxes do rise, it would be by a small amount — enough to sustain current income to at least maintain the highway network.

Just about every dollar from the current gas tax is tied up for maintenance or to pay off bonds for current highway projects — for a quarter century.

"We will not have an ongoing revenue stream," Clibborn warned, for wish-list items like Highway 509 from SeaTac to I-5.

She insists the state can pay off highway projects now under way. So far, about 300 of 412 projects promised in 2003-05 are done.

The proposed budget doesn't shed new light on how to tackle potential cost overruns or funding shortfalls in the $2 billion Highway 99 tunnel project.

Clibborn conjectured tolls would be lower than the peak $3.40 rate predicted in a state study, but leaders haven't yet suggested how to reduce toll rates (to prevent traffic diversion) and still support $400 million in toll-backed bonds there.

Besides toll money, the project needs $300 million the Port of Seattle has promised but not yet identified in its own budgets.

Mike Lindblom: 206-515-5631 or mlindblom@seattletimes.com