Former NBA player hopes to be Oregon's first GOP governor in 23 years

ALBANY, Ore. — In an election season full of tea-party uprisings, there is not much of the conservative renegade in Chris Dudley, the Republican candidate in the Oregon governor's race.

Dudley recruited a former spokesman from the party's national committee to work on his campaign, reached out to the state's Republican establishment for endorsements, and claims a Democrat, President John F. Kennedy, as one of his political heroes.

Dudley — a 6-foot-11 former National Basketball Association player who was known for his gritty defensive play and notoriously poor foul shooting — is mounting a strong challenge to the Democrats' 23-year grip on the governor's office.

Dudley is running against a man once ranked as one of Oregon's most popular politicians, bluejeaned former Gov. John Kitzhaber. Recent polls showed Dudley, who never has held public office, with a narrow lead over Kitzhaber, who seeks a third term as governor after eight years out of office.

"This is the first poll that I have taken in over 20 years in Oregon that had a Republic even tied in a gubernatorial race," said Tim Hibbitts, a Portland-based pollster whose survey in June found the race even. "That's how much the dynamics have changed."

Dudley's strong campaign is part of a broader Republican surge in gubernatorial races that, according to a forecast by New York Times analyst Nate Silver, could result in the party winning control of 30 of the nation's 50 statehouses.

In Oregon, the race is all about the economy. The state fell much deeper into recession than neighboring Washington and has had a much weaker rebound. Oregon's unemployment rate in August was stuck at 10.6 percent, compared to with 8.9 percent in Washington.

Oregon's sagging recovery has created huge problems for funding state government, with a projected $3.4 billion shortfall in revenues for the next biennium representing almost a 20 percent gap in the budget, a substantially bigger hole — on a percentage basis — than faced by Washington state.

Oregon's subpar recovery from the economic downturn is part of a broader malaise; the state in recent decades has fallen behind most other states in other indicators.

"We are in a tough spot," Dudley said at a Chamber of Commerce luncheon in Albany, a western Oregon town of more than 48,000. "It pains me to see us ... a national leader in homelessness, a national leader in hunger. ... That is unacceptable."

Dudley has tried to tie Oregon's problems to Kitzhaber's two terms in office that ended in 2002, a period when state spending expanded rapidly amid a much stronger economy.

"John wants to defend the status quo," Dudley, 45, said in the Sept. 30 debate sponsored by The Oregonian newspaper and KGW News Channel 8. "... And the verdict is in. It will not work."

To spur the economy, Dudley's proposals include a cut in the state capital-gains tax.

Kitzhaber, 63, responded that Dudley wants to recycle failed tax-cut policies from President George W. Bush's administration.

"There is a difference between a new face and new ideas," Kitzhaber said. "You have to actually have ideas that are pegged to the 21st century."

Strictly mainstream

To bolster his moderate credentials, Dudley cites his personal biography.

In his boyhood home, his father, a minister, was a Democrat, and his mother was a swing voter. His grandfather was a staunch Republican who served as an ambassador under President Nixon. Dudley says he has looked to both parties for inspiration.

"The people who probably influenced me the most politically, growing up, were JFK and Reagan," he said. "Both of them had that insight and vision."

At age 16 in California, Dudley was diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. Despite the illness, he emerged as a star basketball player at Yale University, where he majored in economics and political science.

Dudley played 16 seasons in the NBA, including six with the Portland Trail Blazers. He also represented the NBA players union in negotiations with league owners.

Since leaving the NBA, Dudley has worked as a financial planner and also devoted time to charitable efforts that include a foundation he launched to help children with diabetes.

As a candidate, he has reached out to the mainstream Republican Party establishment.

He hired LeRoy Coleman, who previously worked at the Republican National Committee, as his communications manager. He also has received $750,000 in donations from the Republican Governors Association, which helped give him a huge fundraising edge.

Dudley has raised more than $5.8 million, while Kitzhaber has raised about $3.7 million.

Meanwhile, Dudley has balked at courting tea-party activists. "It's kind of up to him to do the outreach, and it's not happening," said Tom Cox, a media liaison for the state tea party.

This strategy has enabled him to make some inroads with swing voters.

"The data I have seen is that Dudley is picking up anywhere from 15 to 20 percent of the Democrats' vote," Hibbitts said. "That partly explains why the race is close right now."

Different race this time

For Kitzhaber, the tight race is a big turnaround from his previous campaign. He sailed past conservative Republican activist Bill Sizemore in 1998 with the largest margin of victory in the history of Oregon governor's races.

A former emergency-room doctor, Kitzhaber won acclaim as a state senator for gaining passage of the Oregon Health Plan, which expanded services to more people by rationing care when it comes to some expensive treatments for patients with poor chances of survival.

Faced with a huge budget shortfall, he says he would take a similar approach and draw up spending priorities for scarce state dollars.

Kitzhaber, who sometimes comes across as a policy wonk, has struggled to convey why he wants a third term in such a gloomy economic period.

After leaving office, he founded a public-policy center at Oregon Health & Science University, chaired another Oregon-based nonprofit that works with doctors, and launched the Archimedes Movement, which seeks to engage communities in the health-care debate.

Friends say he still has the passion and drive to guide the state.

"He sees it as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to actually deliver change," said Brett Wilcox, an Oregon businessman and longtime adviser. "You can't make systemic change when everybody seems to be doing OK."

Kitzhaber also is energized by environmental issues. As governor, he helped fend off attacks on the state's tough land-use regulations and crafted a state plan to protect coho salmon.

During the campaign, he has touted plans to reduce energy use and create jobs through weatherizing schools. He also would keep Oregon engaged in regional efforts to develop cap-and-trade policies to curb fossil-fuel use.

In the Sept. 30 debate, Kitzhaber emphasized the difference between him and Dudley on global warming, saying it was caused by fossil-fuel combustion.

Dudley said he is unsure how much human activity contributes to global warming. In an interview, he said any cap-and-trade policy should be carried out at the national level. Asked whether he would support such legislation, which is opposed by Republicans in Congress, Dudley hesitated.

"The devil's in the details," Dudley said.

Hal Bernton: 206-464-2581 or hbernton@seattletimes.com