Can GOP be a player in Olympia again?

It's cold and drizzly as Dave Schmidt practically jogs from house to house in a middle-class Mill Creek neighborhood, urging people to elect him as their next state senator in District 44.

It's great weather to doorbell for votes, he says. People remember politicians dripping on their doorstep. But the water beading on his fleece doesn't explain his smile, or enthusiasm.

Schmidt's beaming because he's a Republican seeking to unseat a Democratic incumbent in what many analysts predict will be a banner year for GOP candidates.

"The shift is back," said Schmidt, who's trying to reclaim a seat he lost to Sen. Steve Hobbs, D-Lake Stevens, during the 2006 Democratic sweep.

It's hard to recall a time when Republicans have been this optimistic about their chances.

Voters are restless. The economy continues to struggle, the new national health-care law remains unpopular with many, and Democrats in this state just approved $800 million in new taxes on items such as beer, soda and candy — the kind of taxes people will be reminded of every time they buy groceries.

In short, Republicans nationally and locally have plenty of fodder for their campaigns. And they know bad times often mean trouble for the party in power — in this case, Democrats.

"I think the potential is there for big Republican gains," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

Republicans here also could be helped by Democrats' internal squabbles, namely with powerful labor groups that form a critical part of the party's base. The Washington State Labor Council and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) said they plan to be selective about which candidates they endorse and wouldn't mind if some conservative Democrats were tossed out.

Even state Democratic Chairman Dwight Pelz acknowledges the party is likely to lose seats in the fall.

The real question is how many.

Legislature in balance?

Pelz said he does not expect his party to lose control of the Legislature.

But Republicans say if this turns into a year when all you need is an R by your name to win, the November elections could be a repeat of 1994, when their party gained 30 seats to take control of the state House, and nearly regained the Senate as well.

Democrats currently hold a 61-37 majority in the House and 31-18 majority in the Senate, leaving Republicans with little say in how the state is run.

Any GOP resurgence would have to recapture the suburbs, where the party has been losing ground for years in both local and national races.

Ten years ago, Republicans held 12 House and Senate seats in a swath of suburban districts that run from Mill Creek in Snohomish County, down the east side of Lake Washington and south to Auburn. They've lost all those seats except for one, held by Rep. Mike Hope, R-Lake Stevens, in Snohomish County.

Former state GOP chairman Chris Vance once lamented his party had "forgotten how to speak 'cul-de-sac.' "

Winning seats back at the national and local levels may not be as easy as some Republicans think.

A recent national poll sponsored by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal found equal proportions of those surveyed — 42 percent — had negative feelings toward Republicans and Democrats. When asked which party they'd prefer to control Congress, equal numbers — 44 percent — wanted Democrats or the GOP to run things.

"I think the case is that incumbents are going to have a rough year. You'll likely see the incumbents of both parties seeing heat from voters," said Matt Barreto, a political-science professor and polling expert at the University of Washington. "There happen to be more Democratic incumbents, so it's likely to hurt them more."

Still, Senate Republican Leader Mike Hewitt, R-Walla Walla, sees an opportunity to regain a lot of ground, saying he's never seen a better climate for his party.

He recalled losing six seats in the state Senate during the 2006 election. "I was appalled, shocked and devastated," he said. "That was one of those years where people kept saying the tidal wave is coming ... I'm very grateful this tidal wave is coming back the other way."

The Senate Republicans currently have a money advantage, raising around $465,000 compared with about $320,000 for the Democrats in caucus campaign-committee accounts and related funds. But it's still early in the campaign cycle.

Hewitt said he's targeting several suburban districts, including seats currently held by Sens. Randy Gordon, D-Bellevue, in District 41; Eric Oemig, D-Kirkland, in District 45; Claudia Kauffman, D-Kent, in District 47; Rodney Tom, D-Bellevue, in District 48; and Hobbs, in District 44.

All of those districts were carried by GOP gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi in 2004. Plus, Susan Hutchison either won or came close to winning most of the districts in her failed bid for King County executive in 2009. The race was nonpartisan, but Hutchison had strong Republican ties.

Comeback campaign

District 44, which covers part of Snohomish County stretching from Lake Stevens to Mill Creek, is a microcosm of the larger political battle this year.

Schmidt, who is 56, represented the district for 12 years before losing to Hobbs. He spent eight years in the state House and served one term in the Senate.

Schmidt was working as a sales rep for a home-security company when the Senate Republican caucus approached him a few weeks ago with polls indicating he could win the election. He thought about it for a few days, then decided to run.

The field isn't wide open on his side. Ryan Ferrie, of Everett, is running as a Republican. But Hewitt said the Republican Party is fully backing Schmidt.

Schmidt said he's not taking any chances. He quit his job to campaign full-time, and started knocking on doors.

"This is what works," he said recently, going from house to house in the late afternoon.

Many people weren't home, or opened their doors just enough to take his flier, but Schmidt found a sympathetic ear at Chaun Azure's house.

Azure, 35, said she's always voted Republican and plans to do so again this year.

With the Democrats, she said, it's "tax, tax, tax. Everything's tax."

Schmidt says his campaign relies in part on voters like Azure turning out in larger numbers than they did in 2006. He believes he lost then because a big chunk of the GOP base "didn't show up."

It's looking like that could change this election. "The biggest advantage Republicans have this year is enthusiasm," said Sabato, at the Center for Politics. "Republicans seem to be really on fire in many places while Democrats are either blasé or down so far."

Discontent on left

Schmidt, and a possible GOP resurgence, aren't the only issues Democrats have to deal with in the district.

Hobbs also has a primary challenge.

Democrat Lillian Kaufer, on her website, says she's running because "we need more progressive representation."

In a recent interview, Kaufer said she reached out to labor, including the SEIU, before making her decision. "They were like 'Sure, we'd love to see you run and get your campaign started, and come see our group,' " she said.

Labor groups have said for months that losing seats held by conservative Democrats could be a good thing.

"I think some people might think the best years for workers in this state were not the years of supermajorities but years of smaller majorities," said David Rolf, president of SEIU Healthcare 775NW.

SEIU has said it's not happy with Hobbs, who voted against tax increases and the state budget this year.

Labor groups rallied in support of tax increases as a way to stave off budget cuts and protect funding for health care, social services and education.

"We would expect to offer Ms. Kaufer the opportunity to meet with our members in the 44th District and ask for their support," Rolf said.

The Washington State Labor Council endorsed Kaufer last weekend.

Hobbs, for his part, says he doesn't feel threatened by the competition.

"I feel fairly secure where I'm at. That doesn't mean I'm going to work any less. I'm going to work very hard," said Hobbs, who won with 52 percent of the vote four years ago.

"I feel I've represented the district very well," he said. "I'm out there knocking on doors, and people are satisfied with the job I'm doing."

The most recent state filings show he's raised more than $113,000, including money from some labor groups. Schmidt, by comparison, has raised $6,200, although he's just started. Kaufer has no money yet in her Senate campaign account.

A different view

Paul Berendt, former chairman of the state Democratic Party, thinks Democrats are in less trouble than the GOP would like to believe.

When Democrats suffered huge losses back in 1994, the party had been in control of Congress for decades. There was deep-seated frustration over issues such as welfare that led to a revolt by voters.

This year, people are mainly worried about the economy, he said. "Voters in our state have always voted their pocketbook first. Six months from now we may have an electorate that's feeling a lot better because the recession is starting to melt away."

Barreto, at the University of Washington, agreed. "A lot of people are still in that sort of wait and see (mode)," he said.

"They're not happy, but they're not sure if they're mad."

Andrew Garber: 360-236-8266 or agarber@seattletimes.com

Staff reporter Justin Mayo contributed to this report.