For Sen. Patty Murray and Democrats, voter anger is wild card

WASHINGTON — Sen. Patty Murray has ample reasons to expect to keep her job for six more years.

In three previous elections, the Washington Democrat vanquished experienced Republican foes by comfortable margins. This year not a single high-profile opponent has stepped up to challenge her yet. The half-dozen Republicans seeking her seat include a chiropractor, a real-estate broker and an NFL player-turned-alfalfa farmer.

Murray, one of four people who make up the Democratic Senate leadership, has amassed some $5 million in campaign contributions. Her most prolific opponent in fundraising so far has collected enough money to perhaps cover the price of a luxury car.

But though no one is predicting Murray's defeat in the fall, the potential for voter backlash nationally against Democrats could be a wild card in her race. What normally might be her biggest edge — her status as a senior member of the party in power — could prove a handicap among some voters.

Already the Democratic candidate and presumed front-runner for the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts is facing a surprisingly stiff challenge from a Republican in a special election on Tuesday. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is trailing his Republican opponents in the polls in Nevada. Even moderate Republican Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has found himself in a nasty intramural battle with a challenger from the more conservative wing of his own party.

The specter haunting many Democrats is a repeat of the voter revolt that swept Republicans back into power in the House and Senate during Bill Clinton's first presidential term.

"The danger is that no one knows if this is going to be like 1994," said Dwight Pelz, head of the Washington State Democratic Party.

Pelz acknowledged the current of anger among voters who object to the Democrats' health-care overhaul plans, federal bailouts of banks and the auto industry, and the hundreds of billions in tax dollars spent in an effort to shore up the economy and save jobs.

Republicans in Washington state have yet to capitalize on the sour mood by fielding a more formidable opponent for Murray. Even Luke Esser, chairman of the Washington State Republican Party, concedes the GOP slate so far consists of no-name candidates with little money.

The problem, Esser said, is a dearth of people who can quickly raise the millions of dollars it takes to mount a successful campaign. During the state's last Senate race in 2006, Republican Mike McGavick shelled out $2.5 million of his own money in a losing effort to unseat Sen. Maria Cantwell. Cantwell herself spent $6.5 million of her RealNetworks riches in 2000 in knocking out Sen. Slade Gorton.

Still, Esser points out that Murray herself once was an underfinanced political newbie — a former preschool teacher with the footwear to match — and said she shouldn't count on an automatic victory.

"She's a three-term incumbent from the majority party. She's got some explaining to do," Esser said. "This is a far different year than any of the years she has run before."

History is on her side

Carol Albert, Murray's campaign manager, said that with 10 months to go until Election Day, she can't say whether the ballots cast in November will turn out to be a plebiscite on the candidate or on the state of the nation.

The unknown is "what type of a race are you going to have?" Albert said.

Prying loose Murray's grip on her office would be no easy feat. Her 17 years in the Senate are notable for dogged focus on bread-and-butter constituent issues, including veterans' health care, aerospace jobs and federally financed local projects.

Murray has history on her side, too. Senate challengers who go up against three-term incumbents — Democrats and Republicans — tend to get walloped.

According to Eric Ostermeier, who writes the Smart Politics blog at the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, the 10 U.S. senators now serving their fourth terms won their last races by an average of 29.5 percentage points.

Sen. Joe Lieberman, the oft-maligned Independent from Connecticut, eked out a victory. But even he won by a 10-point margin.

Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia and a longtime handicapper of congressional elections, counts Washington as a safe seat for Senate Democrats this year.

For Murray to lose, Sabato said, "you would have to have the 1994 GOP tsunami" all over again.

That was a shocking year for Democrats.

In Washington, voters gave the boot to Tom Foley, the longtime speaker of the House from Spokane. Four other Democratic incumbents, including then-Rep. Maria Cantwell, Rep. Jay Inslee and Mike Kreidler, now the state's insurance commissioner, also got swept out.

Washington's delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives, which had included eight Democrats and one Republican in 1992, flipped to 2-to-7 in that election.

Only Reps. Norm Dicks and Jim McDermott survived the Democratic purge.

A chance for the GOP

Now, Republicans are sensing their best shot in years to climb back into power. And they're counting on harnessing conservative outrage to get them there.

One of those Republicans is Sean Salazar, a Mountlake Terrace chiropractor who entered the race against Murray in October 2008. Salazar is running as a "true conservative" who, among other things, supports shrinking the federal government, drilling for more oil and eliminating the federal income tax within 20 years.

Salazar is a political neophyte, save for a brief foray into California's congressional elections a decade ago before he dropped out of the primary. Since then, Salazar has focused on running his chiropractic practice in Edmonds, though he volunteered for the John McCain/Sarah Palin campaign.

Salazar has spoken at rallies for the Tea Party, the conservative movement animated largely by what supporters say is excessive federal spending and control.

So has Clint Didier, a former tight end for the Washington Redskins and the Green Bay Packers who announced his candidacy for Murray's seat this month.

Didier retired from the National Football League in 1990 and bought a farm near Pasco. He also owns an excavation company.

Debra Churchill, Salazar's campaign manager, believes his message will find receptive ears beyond conservative circles.

Churchill is undaunted by the fact that her candidate has raised only $50,000 to fight Murray, who probably could raise that much just from Boeing workers.

"This is the year we can do it. People are smart, and they're concerned," Churchill said. "This election is really about what our rights are."

Kyung Song: 202-662-7455 or ksong@seattletimes.com