Experts speculate on profile of arsonist

The arsonist believed to be responsible for setting at least 13 fires in the Greenwood neighborhood since June is likely a white male in his late teens or 20s who may be motivated by a mixture of excitement, vanity and revenge, according to three arson experts.

Using their collective experience and a process of elimination, the three men who happened to be in town this week for a one-day conference sponsored by the International Association of Arson Investigators theorize the arsonist is probably an adult who lives in the same neighborhood he's been terrorizing.

The arsonist may have a drinking problem and there's a chance he's not well-educated since nearly one quarter of all serial arsonists never finish high school, said the investigators, who aren't involved in the Greenwood investigation and who based their views on information reported by local media.

Still, the men were careful not to disclose professional insights that could potentially jeopardize the Seattle police investigation.

"Cases like this, this is head-game stuff" that falls outside the usual, day-to-day investigations conducted by police and fire officials, said Joe Toscano, a retired police inspector from New Haven, Conn., who has become one of the country's foremost authorities on arson.

"When a community has something like this going on, it's not a good thing — people are sleeping with one eye open and it puts the fear of God into you because you don't know where this person might strike next," he said.

Seattle police and fire investigators said this week that 13 arsons in the Greenwood neighborhood and one near Bitter Lake since June may be the work of the same person. A $25,000 reward has been offered for information leading to the apprehension of the arsonist.

Toscano, attorney Guy "Sandy" Burnette Jr. and fire investigator Kevin Nee quickly ruled out the possibility that the fires are "arsons-for profit" — set to defraud insurance companies.

They don't think the fire-starter is a "torch for hire" — someone paid to set fire to specific targets — or a "spree arsonist," someone who sets a number of fires in a short amount of time, often within minutes or hours, in a small geographic area.

No "hero complex"

Though it's possible, the experts don't think someone with a "hero complex" — a volunteer firefighter or a security guard, for instance — is behind the blazes, either. It's possible he collects mementos from the fire scenes and saves newspaper clippings detailing his handiwork, they say.

Pointing out that Seattle investigators may not have enough information to develop a profile of the Greenwood arsonist, Toscano warned that it's possible the culprit doesn't fit into the usual category of the thrill-seeking, socially-inept, cowardly loner. The majority of arsonists are white males. Only 10 percent of arsonists are female.

Added Burnette Jr., an attorney from Tallahassee, Fla.: "Whether for the thrill or out of pure malice, when you start a fire, you don't know how it's going to end" — which is probably part of the appeal.

"Fire by its nature is extremely dangerous, volatile and often, it is an uncontrollable tool of destruction that appeals to some people," said Burnette, who for 30 years has specialized in arson cases and represents insurance companies against false accidental-fire claims.

Between one-quarter and one-half of all fires are deliberately set and the amount of property damage caused by arson "dwarfs most major felonies combined," Burnette said.

"The money lost to robbery and theft is not even a fraction of the cost of arson," he said, noting that arsons are also a huge drain on public resources because investigations are so time-consuming and costly.

Few arrests

Even though arsons cause an estimated 1,000 deaths nationwide each year, investigators make arrests in only 10 percent of their cases, Burnette said. Fewer than 1 percent of arsonists are successfully prosecuted, he said.

It typically takes 33 fires for police and fire investigators to discern a pattern and realize they may have a serial arsonist at work, said Nee, a Pierce County investigator and instructor who has taught advanced fire-investigation courses at Bellevue Community College, Everett Community College and Bates Vocational College in Tacoma.

That fact leads Nee to believe that whoever is setting fires in Greenwood is probably responsible for more arsons than the 14 police believe may be related — and that his behavior is escalating.

The Greenwood arsonist could also be a peeping tom or a burglar who has done jail time, Nee said, explaining that many arsonists have been convicted of sex- and property crimes.

A stint behind bars may explain the two-month gap between an Aug. 13 blaze at a small office building on North 98th Street and the Oct. 23 inferno that destroyed a coffee shop and three, family-run restaurants in the heart of Greenwood's business district, causing an estimated $2 million in damage, Nee said.

"My guess is he's walking or he's on a bike," Nee said, adding that the arsonist may be setting some fires on his way home from work or a local watering hole.

Sara Jean Green: 206-515-5654 or sgreen@seattletimes.com