Swine flu could strike a third of state residents this fall, experts predict

It's not an especially nasty virus, but H1N1 could wreak havoc this fall through sheer numbers.

The possibility that an outbreak of swine flu could sicken a third or more of state residents was a key topic of a "pandemic summit" Tuesday convened by Gov. Chris Gregoire. About 70 officials from health agencies, school districts and elsewhere gathered in SeaTac to assess how well they're braced for a widespread resurgence of H1N1 this fall.

Unlike when the virus first emerged worldwide this past spring, school officials say they plan to be much more deliberate about canceling classes in response to new outbreaks.

Public-health officials now believe that the flurry of school closings during spring, including in the Puget Sound area, was an overreaction. King County was among the first jurisdictions in the country to back off from routine school closings.

Now "the idea is to keep schools open," said Randy Dorn, the state's superintendent of public instruction.

Dorn said canceling classes is hugely disruptive to families and staff. Any decision to close schools will be made not by the state, but by local school and public-health officials, Dorn said. Classes likely will remain open as long as any outbreak can be contained and enough staff is on hand to take care of the students, Dorn said.

The best strategy for minimizing the number of infections is getting vaccinated against swine flu — an option that won't be available until at least early October.

In the meantime, Gregoire and other officials plan to emphasize to the public lessons fit for kindergartners: Cover your cough, wash your hands and stay away from others when you're feeling ill.

"It really comes to that," Dorn said.

Swine flu so far has proved to be a relatively mild virus, causing symptoms akin to that of seasonal flu. But H1N1 is expected to attack far more people than regular flu, with the majority of cases involving children and adults under 50. Epidemiologists believe that at least 30 percent of Americans could catch H1N1 this year — two to six times higher than the rate for seasonal flu.

"We have to be ready for significant outbreaks" of swine flu, said Mary Selecky, Washington state Secretary of Health.

In October, the state expects to receive almost a million doses of H1N1 vaccines now being tested, with an additional 420,000 doses arriving weekly after that. Gregoire said the initial caches will be set aside for priority groups, including children, pregnant women and health-care workers.

The state plans to have enough doses to vaccinate all 6.7 million residents over several months, or 13.4 million doses in total.

"Once [the vaccine] becomes widely available, everyone who wants one will get one," Gregoire said.

Seasonal flu shots — which do not protect against swine flu — are available now. Each year, only a fraction of Americans who are advised to get vaccinated for seasonal flu do so.

Gregoire also released $700,000 from the state's emergency coffers to stockpile Tamiflu in the event that pharmacies run out of the antiviral drug. Unlike a vaccine, Tamiflu is given primarily to treat symptoms after a person is infected with H1N1.

Because they lack natural immunity to the H1N1 virus, schoolchildren and younger adults are at greatest risk of catching swine flu. Adults over 50 who have pre-existing medical conditions, such as diabetes or asthma, also may be at higher risk.

On Friday, the World Health Organization said that a more severe form of swine flu that attacks the respiratory system has been reported in some parts of the world. But for the vast majority of people, the virus causes nothing more than chills, fever and coughing.

Kyung Song: 206-464-2423 or ksong@seattletimes.com