Coastal radar station sought to improve storm forecasts

Cliff Mass is used to giving odds on whether it's going to rain or blow.

Now, the University of Washington meteorologist is handicapping the chances Washington will get a new Doppler radar station on the coast to better forecast the damaging storms that roll in from the Pacific Ocean.

"I would say it's gone to a level of 80 to 90 percent," he said Wednesday. "It's probably going to happen."

Once the lonely obsession of Mass and a few others, the radar has rocketed to the top of the National Weather Service's priority list.

The agency, which previously was cool to the idea, is now requesting $7 million for the radar in President Obama's proposed 2010 budget. And weather service director John L. "Jack" Hayes will be in Seattle today to participate in a community forum on the need for the radar.

"There has been a very substantial turnaround, and the National Weather Service is now enthusiastically supporting it," Mass said.

Today's forum is sponsored by U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell, who previously gained a $2 million "down payment" for the project via a budget earmark. That money is being used to identify possible sites for the instrument on the central coast.

The $7 million is by no means guaranteed, but if the line item makes it into the final budget, it's possible the new radar could be operational by the winter of 2011-12, Mass said.

Much of the weather service's change of heart can be traced to several major storms that battered the region over the past several years, Mass believes. The worst hit in early December 2007, with hurricane-force winds on the coast and drenching rains and floods in Southwest Washington that killed several people and shut down Interstate 5 for days.

A coastal radar could have provided some advance warning for areas hit hardest by heavy rainfall, Mass said.

Like a medical MRI is able to see inside the body, radar is able to peer below the surface of a storm and measure the precipitation and winds swirling inside — something satellite instruments can't do.

Western Washington's single Weather Service radar, on Camano Island, has trouble "seeing" storms heading in from the ocean and over coastal communities, because its beams are blocked by the Olympic Mountains. Most of the state's severe weather develops over the Pacific and blows in from the southwest.

An independent analysis that will be presented at today's forum found that even in some parts of the Puget Sound region, radar coverage of the lower atmosphere where most weather unfolds is poor. Only about a third of King County is covered, says the report.

A coastal radar would fill many of the existing gaps in coverage, the report concludes.

"In Washington, the major problem is looking out over the ocean, and to do that you need a large system with a lot of power," said the report's lead author, Jerry Brotzge, of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms at the University of Oklahoma.

A coastal radar would be able to track storms 100 miles offshore, Cantwell said in a statement. That would help vulnerable coastal communities and also provide better forecasts for the entire state, she said.

Cantwell, who has advocated for the radar for years, is one of several Northwesterners who wield power over the agencies involved: Cantwell chairs the Senate subcommittee that oversees the National Weather Service and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA is now headed by former Oregon State University marine biologist Jane Lubchenco, while former Washington Gov. Gary Locke is Lubchenco's boss as secretary of commerce.

Locally, strong public support — especially from coastal communities — helped sway the weather service, said Brad Colman, meteorologist-in-charge of the Seattle office. Also, additional data and experience have reinforced the value of radar to help in forecasts.

A site for the radar could be selected by early next year, Colman said.

The ideal spot would be someplace in Grays Harbor County between Pacific Beach and Westport, Mass said. And it's even possible the site wouldn't cost a cent, he added.

"I've had about five people ... saying they will provide the land for free."

Sandi Doughton: 206-464-2491 or sdoughton@seattletimes.com