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Originally published Monday, April 20, 2009 at 7:02 AM

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Major Oregon quake believed more likely

PORTLAND - Geologists now say there is a 10 to 14 percent chance of a major earthquake and tsunami hitting the Oregon Coast within the next 50 years.

PORTLAND — Geologists now say there is a 10 to 14 percent chance of a major earthquake and tsunami hitting the Oregon Coast within the next 50 years.

Further study by scientists of the Cascadia Subduction 50-75 miles off the Oregon Coast, where many quakes begin, has found about 38 quakes of magnitude 8 or more over the past 10,000 years. The last was in 1700.

Instead of thinking such quakes take place about every 500 years, recent work indicates the range to be from 300 to 350 years.

The Oregonian says scientists predict a tsunami from such a quake could be as high as 80 to 100 feet in Oregon.

Copyright © 2009 The Seattle Times Company

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